Streaks & Variance
November 8th, 2011 at 8:29:13 AM
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The questions below are from the perspective of a low-roller with a modest bankroll and a limited amount of playing time.
1. STREAKS - Although they can't be predicted, my understanding is that streaks (both good and bad) occur in casino games. So for a gambler with a modest unit bankroll and a limited amount of playing time, pretty much the only way to win a significant number of units is to get "lucky" and get in on a good streak. Conversely, being "unlucky" enough to get in on a bad streak is pretty much the only way you will lose your bankroll.
For example, assume I hand my son a $100 bill to play the $5 pass line on the craps table for one hour before going to see a show. Is it substantially accurate to tell him not to expect to win a bunch of money in that one hour unless he happens to benefit from a good streak (and also that he should not expect to lose it all unless he suffers from a bad streak)?
Another note about streaks (as they relate to slot machines). From my own experience it seems like the slot machines are where you really feel the streaks. It always seems like if I don't get a few good hits early on then my money just dwindles down faster than you can imagine!
2. VARIANCE - Is "variance" just a way of saying your winning (or losing) will probably be either large or small, but with not much in between? Using roulette as an example, if I bet on red/black/even/odd then will my variance be small since I have roughly the same chance of winning as I do of losing? But if I bet a chip on a single number then I am probably NOT going to win which creates a higher variance (but if I DO win then I'll win big)?
My understanding is that the house edge on the two bets is the same, so I'm not sure what effect the house edge has on variance. Is variance primarily related to probability of winning? So the lower the probability of winning, the higher the variance (because you won't be winning as often)? And the higher the probability of winning, the lower the variance (since you'll be winning more often)?
1. STREAKS - Although they can't be predicted, my understanding is that streaks (both good and bad) occur in casino games. So for a gambler with a modest unit bankroll and a limited amount of playing time, pretty much the only way to win a significant number of units is to get "lucky" and get in on a good streak. Conversely, being "unlucky" enough to get in on a bad streak is pretty much the only way you will lose your bankroll.
For example, assume I hand my son a $100 bill to play the $5 pass line on the craps table for one hour before going to see a show. Is it substantially accurate to tell him not to expect to win a bunch of money in that one hour unless he happens to benefit from a good streak (and also that he should not expect to lose it all unless he suffers from a bad streak)?
Another note about streaks (as they relate to slot machines). From my own experience it seems like the slot machines are where you really feel the streaks. It always seems like if I don't get a few good hits early on then my money just dwindles down faster than you can imagine!
2. VARIANCE - Is "variance" just a way of saying your winning (or losing) will probably be either large or small, but with not much in between? Using roulette as an example, if I bet on red/black/even/odd then will my variance be small since I have roughly the same chance of winning as I do of losing? But if I bet a chip on a single number then I am probably NOT going to win which creates a higher variance (but if I DO win then I'll win big)?
My understanding is that the house edge on the two bets is the same, so I'm not sure what effect the house edge has on variance. Is variance primarily related to probability of winning? So the lower the probability of winning, the higher the variance (because you won't be winning as often)? And the higher the probability of winning, the lower the variance (since you'll be winning more often)?
You serious, Clark?
November 8th, 2011 at 9:22:21 AM
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VARIANCE and STREAKS are pretty much the same thing.
Getting 20 reds in a row while betting on black is bad variance because you experience a losing streak.
Getting 20 reds in a row while betting on black and RED results in no variance despite the streak of results.
Think about two extreme slot machine examples. Both have a house edge of 5%
A video poker machine that pays 3:1 every fourth hand (lose every other).
A video poker machine that pays 760:1 on average every 800 hands.
The variance on the 2nd machine is much higher.
For a realistic example, think about let it ride. Let it ride features a modest house edge but a large variance. The roulette game (odd/even) has a larger house edge but a smaller variance.
Winning means simply getting a return of >0 on a bet. Two games with the same house edge but more variance means that you will win less frequently.
Getting 20 reds in a row while betting on black is bad variance because you experience a losing streak.
Getting 20 reds in a row while betting on black and RED results in no variance despite the streak of results.
Think about two extreme slot machine examples. Both have a house edge of 5%
A video poker machine that pays 3:1 every fourth hand (lose every other).
A video poker machine that pays 760:1 on average every 800 hands.
The variance on the 2nd machine is much higher.
For a realistic example, think about let it ride. Let it ride features a modest house edge but a large variance. The roulette game (odd/even) has a larger house edge but a smaller variance.
Winning means simply getting a return of >0 on a bet. Two games with the same house edge but more variance means that you will win less frequently.
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November 8th, 2011 at 10:09:46 AM
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I would have said the exact opposite.Quote: boymimboVARIANCE and STREAKS are pretty much the same thing.
Variance and streaks may be related, but are not at all the same thing. I kinda think they mean exactly what blount2000 said.
For example, if you're betting a single number on Roulette, if things are normal, you absolutely will experience a losing streak. But for how long? As long as your streaks are not more than 35 spins, and you end after a winner, you'll come out ahead. On the other hand, if you instead always bet on Red, you'll experience some ups and downs, but you're more likely to stay close to even.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
November 8th, 2011 at 11:21:34 AM
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>from the perspective of a low-roller with a modest bankroll and a limited amount of playing time.
That is most of us. Its the casino that has a massive bankroll and keeps going 24 hours a day, day after day! Except in the poker room, you play against the house, not other poor schmucks with limited resources and limited time.
>Although they can't be predicted,
Oh, anything can and often is predicted, hoped for or expected to some degree. Perhaps you meant can't be reliably predicted.
>my understanding is that streaks (both good and bad) occur in casino games.
Yes.
>So for a gambler with a modest bankroll and a limited amount of playing time
>pretty much the only way to win is to get "lucky" and get in on a good streak.
Not necessarily. Hoping between Red and Black but being right each time works too.
Conversely, being "unlucky" enough to get in on a bad streak is pretty much the only way you will lose your bankroll.
For example, assume I hand my son a $100 bill to play the $5 pass line on the craps table for one hour before going to see a show. Is it substantially accurate to tell him not to expect to win a bunch of money in that one hour unless he happens to benefit from a good streak (and also that he should not expect to lose it all unless he suffers from a bad streak)?
>From my own experience it seems like the slot machines are where you really feel the streaks.
"Feel"? If you look at your bankroll you might notice, but "feel" relates more to your perceptions and what you are really perceiving is the intermittent reward of a "win" with its flashing lights.
In reality, a slot machine has a higher house edge than a table game. In other words you are PAYING more for experiencing your feelings while playing a slot machine than while playing a table game.
2. VARIANCE - Is "variance" just a way of saying your winning (or losing) will probably be either large or small, but with not much in between? Using roulette as an example, if I bet on red/black/even/odd then will my variance be small since I have roughly the same chance of winning as I do of losing? But if I bet a chip on a single number then I am probably NOT going to win which creates a higher variance (but if I DO win then I'll win big)?
Think of it from the aspect of TEMPERATURE. You are packing for a trip to Vegas and you ask 'what is the temperature there'. If someone gives you the annual average temperature its not much help to you in selecting your wardrobe since the trip you are taking might be in swelteringly hot August or it might be in cooler November. If someone tells you how far away from that average temperature it can get that is more useful information to you. If they tell you how much away from that average it will be tomorrow that is even better.
The reason the slot machine takes more of your money is simply that it returns less of what you put in. It takes a larger bite than roulette does on Red/Black bets.
That is most of us. Its the casino that has a massive bankroll and keeps going 24 hours a day, day after day! Except in the poker room, you play against the house, not other poor schmucks with limited resources and limited time.
>Although they can't be predicted,
Oh, anything can and often is predicted, hoped for or expected to some degree. Perhaps you meant can't be reliably predicted.
>my understanding is that streaks (both good and bad) occur in casino games.
Yes.
>So for a gambler with a modest bankroll and a limited amount of playing time
>pretty much the only way to win is to get "lucky" and get in on a good streak.
Not necessarily. Hoping between Red and Black but being right each time works too.
Conversely, being "unlucky" enough to get in on a bad streak is pretty much the only way you will lose your bankroll.
For example, assume I hand my son a $100 bill to play the $5 pass line on the craps table for one hour before going to see a show. Is it substantially accurate to tell him not to expect to win a bunch of money in that one hour unless he happens to benefit from a good streak (and also that he should not expect to lose it all unless he suffers from a bad streak)?
>From my own experience it seems like the slot machines are where you really feel the streaks.
"Feel"? If you look at your bankroll you might notice, but "feel" relates more to your perceptions and what you are really perceiving is the intermittent reward of a "win" with its flashing lights.
In reality, a slot machine has a higher house edge than a table game. In other words you are PAYING more for experiencing your feelings while playing a slot machine than while playing a table game.
2. VARIANCE - Is "variance" just a way of saying your winning (or losing) will probably be either large or small, but with not much in between? Using roulette as an example, if I bet on red/black/even/odd then will my variance be small since I have roughly the same chance of winning as I do of losing? But if I bet a chip on a single number then I am probably NOT going to win which creates a higher variance (but if I DO win then I'll win big)?
Think of it from the aspect of TEMPERATURE. You are packing for a trip to Vegas and you ask 'what is the temperature there'. If someone gives you the annual average temperature its not much help to you in selecting your wardrobe since the trip you are taking might be in swelteringly hot August or it might be in cooler November. If someone tells you how far away from that average temperature it can get that is more useful information to you. If they tell you how much away from that average it will be tomorrow that is even better.
The reason the slot machine takes more of your money is simply that it returns less of what you put in. It takes a larger bite than roulette does on Red/Black bets.
