Flawed Counting System?

I have a friend who I play blackjack with and he rarely loses, he says he doesn't win all the time, but definitely wins overall.

1.) Only plays double deck games;
2.) Never plays for more than hour;
3.) Counts only face cards and 10s (40 total);
4.) Plays standard strategy;
5.) Bets between $10-$20 per hand for the first half of the game; and
6.) Waits until about half of the cards are dealt and if there are 20 or more face cards or 10s remaining he increases his bet to $25-$50.

*He plays all over Las Vegas, Laughlin, Primm, and Mesquite, which likely helps him avoid being labeled a card counter. He plays 2 maybe 3 times a week. Usually buys in with $100 and either plays till he loses or until his hour of play is up. I have been with him for about 8 sessions of play and he has won 7 of those 8. He says he does this all the time and relies on this money as part of his income.

*I am not a blackjack card counter so I don't know if this simple counting system has any merit or not.

I'm sure this method is slightly helpful. I can't imagine that it'd be enough to completely overcome the house edge. You say your friend plays until he loses $100 or until his hour of play is up. What was the net-win over the 8 sessions you witnessed? It occurs to me that given those parameters, it'd be possible to win 7 of 8 and still be net down.

I was thinking the same thing. Also the bets are large for the buy-in. If there's more big cards coming in the second deck vs. the first then he was probably losing a lot of hands in the first deck. This would leave him with only like one or two large bets left in his stack. I dont think his spread or buy-in is big enough for a simple counting method like this but who knows.

double post :(

I would say the average win is about $150 (profit) and I have seen it goes as high as $500. I would say his average bet is probably $20, but I have seen him win several splits and receive several blackjacks that made him profitable. Definitely not down over the 8 sessions.

I was primarily curious if this counting system would overcome the house edge and if there is a good potential that he may be labeled as a card counter.

Thanks for the comments.

Quote: SONBP2

I would say the average win is about $150 (profit) and I have seen it goes as high as $500. I would say his average bet is probably $20, but I have seen him win several splits and receive several blackjacks that made him profitable. Definitely not down over the 8 sessions.

I was primarily curious if this counting system would overcome the house edge and if there is a good potential that he may be labeled as a card counter.

Thanks for the comments.

If the buyin is really only $100, and the bets really only vary from $10/20 to $25/50, then I doubt that he'd be identified or labeled as a card counter by most people. But I also don't think those wins are sustainable. Even with a very high positive count, the odds are much better of busting out a $100 buyin than of reaching $500 of profit by betting $25-$50/hand.

He buys in at $100 and plays $10-$25 a hand? Wow, hope he doesn't have too many losing hand streaks or he would have a very short session.