1 in 1,00000,00000,00000,00000,00000

math professor graduated from Standford wins 4 scratch ticket jackport in 10 years. chance is 1 in 1,00000,00000,00000,00000,00000

link below. wizard can you teach me how to be like her?


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2023514/Joan-R-Ginther-won-lottery-4-times-Stanford-University-statistics-PhD.html

I think what is at play here is bad math. I would not surprise me if whoever came up with that statistic forgot to factor in all the losing tickets she bought, or didn't factor in enough losers.

If she buys 10000 tickets per year, and the chance of jackpot is 1 in 10 million, I get approximately 1 in 477 million chance to win at least four times in ten years. Not quite as high a number as quoted in the OP, but then again 1 in 10 million is way too good for a decent jackpot :) And 200 tickets per week is a lot of tickets too ...

I think she must definitely have found a loophole. Not based on the smallness of the probability, but simply because I can't believe a PhD in statistics was stupid enough to play lottery (especially in such massive volumes) without knowing something that would make her believe it was worth it.

Quote: weaselman

If she buys 10000 tickets per year, and the chance of jackpot is 1 in 10 million, I get approximately 1 in 477 million chance to win at least four times in ten years. Not quite as high a number as quoted in the OP, but then again 1 in 10 million is way too good for a decent jackpot :) And 200 tickets per week is a lot of tickets too ...

I think she must definitely have found a loophole. Not based on the smallness of the probability, but simply because I can't believe a PhD in statistics was stupid enough to play lottery (especially in such massive volumes) without knowing something that would make her believe it was worth it.

I made some similar assumptions and came to the same kind of conclusion. Lucky, yes, but still within an believable margin of error. Maybe she was a progressive hunter, only playing when the games went positive. Otherwise, maybe it was the kind of thing like that guy in Canada who could tell the outcome by looking at the serial number.

Quote: weaselman

If she buys 10000 tickets per year, and the chance of jackpot is 1 in 10 million, I get approximately 1 in 477 million chance to win at least four times in ten years. Not quite as high a number as quoted in the OP, but then again 1 in 10 million is way too good for a decent jackpot :) And 200 tickets per week is a lot of tickets too ...

I think she must definitely have found a loophole. Not based on the smallness of the probability, but simply because I can't believe a PhD in statistics was stupid enough to play lottery (especially in such massive volumes) without knowing something that would make her believe it was worth it.

I made some similar assumptions and came to the same kind of conclusion. Lucky, yes, but still within an believable margin of error. Maybe she was a progressive hunter, only playing when the games went positive. Otherwise, maybe it was the kind of thing like that guy in Canada who could tell the outcome by looking at the serial number.

What I worked at SSA there was an office lottery ticket pool. As far as I know the number of actuaries in the pool was zero, it was all the secretaries and other supporting staff. So I tend to think she was not just a recreational player.

She got 3 of her 4 winning tickets at the same small town party store in Texas. With all the possible locations selling tickets in Texas and all the possible tickets distributed, even though the lottery commission denies it, this HAS to be an inside job from top to bottom, including the people in the store who conveniently sold these tickets to the same customer.

There is some interesting discussion and links in this thread.

Quote: VegasVic14

She got 3 of her 4 winning tickets at the same small town party store in Texas.

Did she go out of her way to buy there? A lot of people do buy from the same corner store, or wherever they live. It's atypical to buy from different places (I think)

Quote: rxwine

Did she go out of her way to buy there? A lot of people do buy from the same corner store, or wherever they live. It's atypical to buy from different places (I think)

according to the article, she lived in LV, and went to Texas to buy her tickets.

Quote: VegasVic14

She got 3 of her 4 winning tickets at the same small town party store in Texas. With all the possible locations selling tickets in Texas and all the possible tickets distributed, even though the lottery commission denies it, this HAS to be an inside job from top to bottom, including the people in the store who conveniently sold these tickets to the same customer.

Every time she bought them out the Lottery sent more tickets. In one lottery 20% of the tickets were sold through that store because Ginther was buying them all.