Poll: guts for match play

A $25 match play coupon is eating a hole in my pocket, yet I see a problem of intestinal fortitude. Say I wind up getting a chance at whatever I choose to play it on [something that is actually in doubt] and, having learned I should pick a bet paying better than one to one, I go for it. Of course the most likely event is that I lose a bet if paying better than 1:1. There is only one match play coupon for the day and it is easy to picture feeling like a fool as the bet loses and "that's it". So my chickens**t side starts telling me to pick a bet that is more likely to win and give up some of the value of the coupon. Now I do have enough guts to pick something other than the 1:1 if that will be allowed, but which bet will my inner courage allow me to make? I made a list of those I would consider, and I have ruled out games I don’t know well.

The source is James Grosjean's article and the part in the brackets is the overall value for your buck. If I had a stack of coupons I would *definitely* have the guts to pick the best available. That would be the "yo" bet as roulette is expressly out. However, in the poll the top to bottom ranking is going by the *true* odds which are listed first. The first on the list is ranked at a value of '5', that got cut off, sorry.

The ranking of those I picked by Grosjean’s value is different, basically reversed from the order in the poll:

Craps... yo. 17:1 (pays 15:1) [7.22]
Craps.... 2 or 12. 35:1 (pays 30:1) [6.94]
Craps... Any craps. 8:1 (pays 7:1)[6.67]
Baccarat... Tie. roughly 9:1 (pays 8:1) [6.18]
Craps.... Any 7. 5:1 (pays 4:1) [5]
Craps... Field at 2x+3x. 5:4 [pay 'depends', 2.78%HE] [5] note that this gets 'cut off' in the poll, I can't edit that


So, if you had one coupon and had to pick from this list, what would your guts tell you to do?

no votes? really?

Quote: odiousgambit

no votes? really?

You posted at 3 am, I'm assuming Pacific Time. Give it time.

I voted field for low HE.

Yo or ace-deuce for the big payout. Will they let you hop an easy number of your choice? Have some fun with it -- you could walk with a big amount!

No guts, no glory. Unless you really need the $25, play big. It would make a great story if it hits! I vote for snake eyes!

It's YO time!

I vote 2 or 12. Go big or go home!

I'd be curious to see if the match play coupon will allow a bet other than 1:1

I think I am getting influenced to go big and might, but my guts are hedging towards the middle choices... we shall see.

Quote: vernfritz

I'd be curious to see if the match play coupon will allow a bet other than 1:1

I'd have to guess there is a better than 50-50 chance I will be told that 1:1 is it. In any case there will be a full blog report [end of August if I can hold out that long]

some places will let you play the coupon on the field but will only pay you 1:1 on the 2 or 12 on the coupon portion of the wager. make sure you ask if you get paid more than 1:1 on the 2 and 12 if you do decide to play that coupon on the field and they let you.

If they won't let me use the coupon on the proposition bets, it's going to be funny. They are trained at this place to push those bets, so when the stick calls out "who wants bets in the middle?", I'm going to respond "pit boss said those were bad, remember?" or "pit boss hates it when I bet those"

The people with no guts are the ones who ask me if they can slide their match play coupon under my blackjack bet and it's usually the $25 coupons. Many times the casino looks the other way if it's just one coupon.

Would you do it if asked?

You've given me time to think about it. I'd say 'no sir'.

If someone had surprised me wanting to do this, and I hadn't thought about it, I might have been in the mood to say OK. After all, he would have caught me in a good mood, right?

I'll only do it for people I know. Others tend to think that the coupon gives them the right to control the hand. The last thing I need is for things to get ugly and cause unwanted attention.

Quote: benbakdoff

The people with no guts are the ones who ask me if they can slide their match play coupon under my blackjack bet and it's usually the $25 coupons. Many times the casino looks the other way if it's just one coupon.

Would you do it if asked?

sure if they let me double down or split with my own money on their matchplay portion of the bet and play out the hand as i see fit.

That goes without saying. Just hope you don't have to surrender because they'll probably go nuts.

Quote: benbakdoff

That goes without saying. Just hope you don't have to surrender because they'll probably go nuts.

sometimes they let you retain the coupon if you do surrender. theres a whole separate strategy based on being able to do that.