Good point, another member from here brought up
We'll use the 00 wheel for my example. When the AP (cough) crew do their thing regarding looking for a bias wheel/tilted wheel (use whatever term you like), they either jot down many numbers OR we have also read that it only takes a couple spins to spot it IF it exists. I say thats a load of BS but thats a different thread (lol). Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.
Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).
When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjA few days ago, someone brought up an interesting point regarding (yet again) past numbers. *ALWAYS* a favorite subject of mine.
We'll use the 00 wheel for my example. When the AP (cough) crew do their thing regarding looking for a bias wheel/tilted wheel (use whatever term you like), they either jot down many numbers OR we have also read that it only takes a couple spins to spot it IF it exists. I say thats a load of BS but thats a different thread (lol). Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.
Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).
When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.
Ken
Seriously now...you DO realize that 0 people here are claiming to be advantage roulette players, right? ZERO.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjUmmm, is this gonna be the NORM again? 12 replies and not one answer? (lol) I love this place. You know what you should do? Wait to see what the general consensus is and THEN just go along with it. Ya cant lose!!
Ken
That you'll post a question that people point is flawed from the start, then bloviate about how no-one answers your crappy questions that use words in way no-one else does?
Yep, the odds are certainly that will be how it goes again.
Quote: mrjjjUmmm, is this gonna be the NORM again? 12 replies and not one answer? (lol) I love this place. You know what you should do? Wait to see what the general consensus is and THEN just go along with it. Ya cant lose!!
Ken
If you want an answer, you should consider asking a question. The only question mark in your post is in the line "my point?" It seems silly to expect us to respond to that question, since then we'd only be telling you what your own point is...
Quote: NareedJust block him already. It's not hard.
Blocking HIM is easy (and done). But the threads are still there. And then I see that others have made what look like good points in those threads, and then i have to click to see what drivel led to the good points...
Quote: Wavy70I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.
Just how did that work, who controlled it and can we adapt it to craps?
Quote: rdw4potusBlocking HIM is easy (and done). But the threads are still there. And then I see that others have made what look like good points in those threads, and then i have to click to see what drivel led to the good points...
So block the impulse to look.
If you keep feeding him, he'll never go away. There are so many other boards where he can be a nuissance. Stop hogging him :P
Quote: Wavy70I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.
Why not just use the Vizzini method? (What in the world can that be?!?)
Quote: Wavy70I remember the Hogg's Nest in Georgia was using a wheel with a high power magnet to make the ball move from winning #'s to a losing one.
Was it the same method used at Rick's Cafe?
Not EVERY situation can be the SAME definition guys.
I'll give two opposite situations >>
The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).
For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple. That is an example of past numbers with MEANING.
Now, an example of gamblers fallacy >> The 4 5 6 street has not hit in the last 12 spins so now its DUE to hit SOON.
Are BOTH of my examples the same? Of course not. Do they BOTH use past results? Yes.
Ken
Quote: NareedWas it the same method used at Rick's Cafe?
With the quality of writing I highly doubt the team behind DoH would stoop to stealing ideas.
My system at roulette is I play every number on the board. They all laugh at me but I just keep pulling back the stacks.
Quote: mrjjj
The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).
For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple. That is an example of past numbers with MEANING.
What meaning do you think the past spins have? Of COURSE they'll come close to balancing out. That's how math works, and this is really really really simple math.
Quote: mrjjjMy point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS.
Ken,
Please explain why those who use a diffuse prior probability distribution through Bayesian analysis to derive a posterior distribution are incorrect. This is essentially what you are saying.
Matilda.
Quote: mrjjj
For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple.
The result won't mean anything because the sample is too small. With a large enough sample, it will balance out, thats all that matters. All you can prove in the short term is that anything can happen. If its raining money, turn your hat over and catch it. But when it stops, don't hang around waiting for it to start again..
Quote: EvenBobThe result won't mean anything because the sample is too small. With a large enough sample, it will balance out, thats all that matters. All you can prove in the short term is that anything can happen. If its raining money, turn your hat over and catch it. But when it stops, don't hang around waiting for it to start again..
I could change it up a bit? We'll keep everything the same except it'll be done over 800 trials instead of 100. My point? In a small number of situations (NOT ALL), those past 'hot' numbers (and only betting for the next 20 spins, 800 trials, no bias BTW) I'll take those few numbers ANYDAY. Remember, I use to be HUGE, betting on sleepers. Made some damn good money on some days but in the END.......'due' (cold) killed my BR.
My favorite (through trial and error)
A) 2-3 numbers max.
B) HOT, not cold.
C) Currently HOT....not 300 numbers from the past hot.
D) The numbers are constantly rotating.
Ken
Quote: NareedJust block him already. It's not hard.
Dont read/respond to my posts. Problem solved on your end, correct?
Ken
Quote: matildaKen,
Please explain why those who use a diffuse prior probability distribution through Bayesian analysis to derive a posterior distribution are incorrect. This is essentially what you are saying.
Matilda.
I can ask it a little different, I guess. >>
Here is an example: Lets say John and I lived in the same city, with one casino. I go and track a bunch of numbers and I see that 3 numbers are hitting alot (hot). I DONT CARE WHY but they are hitting alot. I do my betting and I have a great day. Two days later, John goes (same wheel) and he notices his bias (cough). Bets on those numbers, has a great day. Him and I were betting on the same numbers. Why am I the idiot for betting on those numbers OTHER THAN....I'm a method guy. Who cares?
Ken
Quote: mrjjj
My favorite (through trial and error)
A) 2-3 numbers max.
B) HOT, not cold.
C) Currently HOT....not 300 numbers from the past hot.
D) The numbers are constantly rotating.
Ken
You finally got off the cold numbers, I didn't know that. Gizmo is a big hot numbers fan, he studied them for years. I had a system for playing repeats that worked well. I think it was, chart 36 spins, if there are at least 8 numbers that repeat and less than 12 that repeat, play those 8-12 numbers exclusively until they stop hitting. It was insanely profitable sometimes, and other times it made nothing. If less than 8 repeated, its not enough to play, and over 12 is too many bets at one time. I remember 10 was the good number of repeats to play in 36 spins, but 8-12 can work too. Hot numbers can make you money, if you know when to stop and start over.
Quote: EvenBobYou finally got off the cold numbers, I didn't know that. Gizmo is a big hot numbers fan, he studied them for years. I had a system for playing repeats that worked well. I think it was, chart 36 spins, if there are at least 8 numbers that repeat and less than 12 that repeat, play those 8-12 numbers exclusively until they stop hitting. It was insanely profitable sometimes, and other times it made nothing. If less than 8 repeated, its not enough to play, and over 12 is too many bets at one time. I remember 10 was the good number of repeats to play in 36 spins, but 8-12 can work too. Hot numbers can make you money, if you know when to stop and start over.
I'll give an example of what I do >> I bet on two and only two numbers per spin. (flat betting) I track the last 22 numbers hit. After each NEW number, I cross off the oldest number. I choose the 2 with the most hits. Its usually a number with 3 or more hits on it. A tie? Lets say 3 numbers with 3 hits? No real reason, I choose any TWO of those. What happens *ALOT*.....one win in 18 bets, one win in 18 bets, one win in 18 bets. Boring, just breaking even but WAIT FOR IT....Yep, you'll get that SURGE (we have all seen it) the same number hitting 6 times in that 22 spins along with my other bet hitting 5 times in the 22 spins. I accept the 'breaking even' betting. Its boring but not a huge deal. Its the SURGE that comes and goes. And when its gone, no biggie, its out of the 22 spin tracking so I'm not betting on it anymore regardless.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjI accept the 'breaking even' betting. Its boring but not a huge deal. Its the SURGE that comes and goes. And when its gone, no biggie, its out of the 22 spin tracking so I'm not betting on it anymore regardless.
Ken
For how many years did I say the thing to do in roulette is when you're not winning, break even. So you only have two modes of play, winning and not winning. But not losing. Of course breaking even is boring, but it beats the hell out of losing.
