What would you do?
Poll
 | 15 votes (51.72%) | ||
| | 3 votes (10.34%) | ||
| | 5 votes (17.24%) | ||
| | 3 votes (10.34%) | ||
| | 2 votes (6.89%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (3.44%) |
29 members have voted
July 10th, 2011 at 12:03:14 PM
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Ok here's a poll on risk aversion.
You're on a game show and the host offers you $1,000. You can take the money or make one wager at 0% house edge. Your EV will be the same for any amount, the only thing that varies is the risk involved.
What would you do? Explain your reasoning and if other please post the amount.
You're on a game show and the host offers you $1,000. You can take the money or make one wager at 0% house edge. Your EV will be the same for any amount, the only thing that varies is the risk involved.
What would you do? Explain your reasoning and if other please post the amount.
July 10th, 2011 at 12:18:22 PM
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$1B is way too much, but $1M isn't quite enough. I'd go for $5M at a 1/5000 chance. I assume 50% in taxes so that leaves $2.5M net.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 10th, 2011 at 12:21:25 PM
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For the purposes of this question you can assume 0% tax (we can always dream).
I think that the utility of money greatly decreases after the first million or so.
I think that the utility of money greatly decreases after the first million or so.
July 10th, 2011 at 12:25:29 PM
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This bears quoting Isaac Asimov, "So let's assume we spend all that money, only to find out that probability is just a probability."
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 10th, 2011 at 12:30:08 PM
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So what? The utility of matchsticks decreases rather rapidly too particularly if you are playing poker with used matchsticks. Its still a score keeping mechanism: marble, matchstick, trophy wife, million dollars ... whats the difference? The price of the toys changes and the type of the toy changes but thats about all.Quote: iwannaiguanaI think that the utility of money greatly decreases after the first million or so.
July 10th, 2011 at 12:30:58 PM
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$1,000 is well over my comfort limit for any one bet, so I would take the cash. Using happiness=log(networth), taking the cash is the right thing to maximize my happiness as well. I can think of many things to do with the $1000 that would increase my happiness, so I'm pretty sure it is the right move for me.
July 10th, 2011 at 12:31:06 PM
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That depends entirely on your current and anticipated future debt situation. $1M has a lot of utility if you're planning to send kids to college these days:
http://www.mfea.com/InvestmentGoals/InvestingChildren/InvestingForCollege/SavingAmCen.asp
http://www.mfea.com/InvestmentGoals/InvestingChildren/InvestingForCollege/SavingAmCen.asp
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 10th, 2011 at 12:34:51 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffSo what? The utility of matchsticks decreases rather rapidly too particularly if you are playing poker with used matchsticks. Its still a score keeping mechanism: marble, matchstick, trophy wife, million dollars ... whats the difference? The price of the toys changes and the type of the toy changes but thats about all.
Well sure they are all "score keeping mechanisms." I know I'd certainly rather have a million dollars than a million matchsticks though, LOL
July 11th, 2011 at 1:14:56 PM
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I voted for a 100-1 shot at $100,000. I started with nothing. 99 times I could leave with nothing, but one time I could have a nice tidy sum. A 1,000 to one shot seems too risky for me, and 10-1 seems a waste of an opportunity.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 11th, 2011 at 1:22:31 PM
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That's funny. I felt exactly the same way, except all my numbers are shifted over one spot.Quote: AyecarumbaI voted for a 100-1 shot at $100,000. I started with nothing. 99 times I could leave with nothing, but one time I could have a nice tidy sum. A 1,000 to one shot seems too risky for me, and 10-1 seems a waste of an opportunity.
I'd go for the 1/10 chance at $10K.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 11th, 2011 at 2:44:20 PM
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.....
July 12th, 2011 at 12:28:00 PM
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Quote: gofaster87Id go for the gold. A thousand isn't going to change my life 1B would. I think thats my problem, I always go for the big win.
Would it be different if they didn't give you the grand to start with? If you had to front it, would you still choose the same?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
July 12th, 2011 at 2:32:19 PM
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I'd take the $1000 because it's not a 1000:1 shot, it's a 100% shot.
The 100M would be nice..but a 1:100M chance is similar to me being struck by lightning...
The 100M would be nice..but a 1:100M chance is similar to me being struck by lightning...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
July 12th, 2011 at 3:06:38 PM
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Take the $1000 so you won't wonder if the next chance was rigged.
July 12th, 2011 at 11:21:04 PM
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I'm surprised so many people would take the 1000. There are no wrong answers of course, but since this is a gambling forum I expected more people to take the free bet
July 12th, 2011 at 11:40:37 PM
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I'd prefer to take the free money :)
I replied I'd go double or quits. What I really like to do is sub divide the 1,000 in to multiple bets....
I replied I'd go double or quits. What I really like to do is sub divide the 1,000 in to multiple bets....
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 13th, 2011 at 7:11:24 AM
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Quote: iwannaiguanaI'm surprised so many people would take the 1000. There are no wrong answers of course, but since this is a gambling forum I expected more people to take the free bet
Perhaps gamblers do understand that once the house gives you money, it's your money now and not the house's. So the bet wouldn't be free, would it? ;)
Here's a better question: suppose you took a chance on winning $1 billion and won, what would you do with the money?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
July 13th, 2011 at 9:17:32 AM
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I'd take the $1000. Real world, that's real money. Like someone said, $1000 is way over my betting limit.
Now, if it's an answering questions situation, I would probably chance it. I do OK at answering questions, as long as it isn't something like "What do I have in my pocket?"
Now, if it's an answering questions situation, I would probably chance it. I do OK at answering questions, as long as it isn't something like "What do I have in my pocket?"
A falling knife has no handle.
July 13th, 2011 at 9:50:18 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaWould it be different if they didn't give you the grand to start with? If you had to front it, would you still choose the same?
The mentality going into a game show is that you haven't "lost" anything since you didn't pay to play, so you might as well go for a higher amount. $1,000 is nice, but it's not like it would be life-changing for anyone. I'd likely shoot for the $10k or $100k, because you at least have some utility from those amounts (with a "decent" shot of winning each). At first blush, I'd probably take the $10k, because I am slightly risk averse and one of those people who feels like "I never win anything."
If I had to front the money, I'd play blackjack or craps instead ;)
July 13th, 2011 at 11:25:27 AM
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A recenty poll showed taht 47% of the respondents will have to sell something if they needed to raise $2,000 cash in 30 days. With the unemployed, underemployed, and out of benefits close to 20% of the work force, a $1,000 sure thing looks good.
July 13th, 2011 at 12:26:37 PM
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Either one is OK with me.
I just want to know where is this game show? Can I go there now?
I just want to know where is this game show? Can I go there now?
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
July 13th, 2011 at 1:29:19 PM
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Quote: buzzpaffA recenty poll showed taht 47% of the respondents will have to sell something if they needed to raise $2,000 cash in 30 days. With the unemployed, underemployed, and out of benefits close to 20% of the work force, a $1,000 sure thing looks good.
Must be some heck of a demographic make up of respondents if that's the case-scary!
