Somebody Else's Ten (marked down to Five) Commandments (well, Basic Rules) of Gambling
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:29:53 AM
permalink
Back in the days when Usenet still mattered, I used to post something (usually to alt.vacation.las-vegas and/or rec.gambling (before it was split into subgroups)) called "Ten Basic Rules of Gambling." After a little editing, I have gotten them down to Five Basic Rules:
1. THE PRIMARY RULE OF GAMBLING: BEFORE YOU BET IT, ASSUME THERE IS A CHANCE YOU WILL LOSE IT. Don't bet it if you need it. (In the words of Oscar Madison (from "The Odd Couple"): "There is no such thing as a 'sure thing'; that's why they call it 'gambling'.")
Never, ever, ever, ever, evereverever, EVER, did I mention "ever", ever, bet anything under the assumption that "I'll win it back eventually." Remember that every light, every bit of carpeting, and every one of those "free" drinks is paid for with the difference between what the losers lost and what the winners won. (Well, that and the price of tickets for whatever show the casino is hosting.)
2. If you bet $10 at blackjack and actually get a blackjack, you are supposed to get back your $10 plus $15 more. At a table that pays 6-5 for a blackjack, you only get back your $10 plus $12 more. STAY AWAY from any table that offers anything less than 3-2 for a blackjack. Yes, that does include every single-deck table on the Las Vegas Strip (and most of the ones downtown, as well). No, you DON'T know how to count cards well enough to beat a 6-5 single-deck table.
3. Unless it pays 250,000-1 for an 8-spot ticket, or 1,400,000-1 for a 9-spot, do not play Keno. I don't care how long they are taking with your food at the cafe. (Next time, try the buffet. For that matter, do any casinos still have keno displays in their cafes?)
4. Every game in the casino has one thing in common: there is no such thing as a "system" for beating that game. Some games have strategies - video poker, for example, since you have a say in which cards to discard - but none of them have a guaranteed, or even "virtually guaranteed," system.
Well, there is one system, and to have it E-mailed to you, have your credit card information ready and go to www.fivebasicrules...
(Actually, there is "sort of" a system for slot machines, but in order to use it, first you have to buy a slot machine, then be able to figure out the pattern of the random numbers (based on the code in the chips and whatever is driving the "clock" that draws the random numbers) so you know in what order each set of three symbols will appear (so that when you see a particular set, you know how many numbers, and thus exactly how much time, it will be before the number for the jackpot comes up), and even at then, the numbers are drawn so fast that you can't "guarantee" a win, but even reducing the odds of a jackpot to 1 in 10,000 is a significant advantage.)
5. Have you ever asked yourself, "Why do casinos have maximum bets on, say, roulette wheels, especially when there are separate 'high roller' areas where obviously the limits are higher?" It's because in the high roller areas, the minimum bets are higher as well - mainly to make the following strategy much harder to work:
(a) Bet the minimum (I'll call it "N dollars" here)
(b) If you win, you are ahead by N dollars; go back to (a)
(c) If you lose, double your bet; if you win, you lost N, but then won 2N, so you are ahead N dollars, and you go back to (a)
(d) Each time you lose, double your previous bet - this way, when you win, you will always be ahead N dollars from the point where you last bet N dollars, and you go back to (a)
Yes, you can lose 10 in a row, at which point you are 1023 times N dollars behind, but (a) the chance of that happening on a roulette wheel that has 00 on it is 1 in 613, and (b) you just bet 1024 times N on the next spin.
Here's where the maximum bet comes in; if it is 1000 times N, then you can't bet 1024 times N on the next spin, so even if you win, you are still behind. If the maximum is only 100 times N, it takes only seven losing spins in a row (which happens one time out of 89) to reach the "cannot catch up" point.
(Well, yes, I suppose you can just go over to one of the "high roller" tables at that point, but you still run the risk of either reaching the table limit (and no, they will not raise it for you once they see what you are doing) or running out of money.)
One other thing to note: while it is true that the chance of, say, black coming up ten times in a row is about 1 in 613, there is also a 1 in 613 chance of black coming up nine times in a row and then the next spin is red.
For those of you interested in the "unabridged" version:
#6 and #7 were pretty much the same as #3. (Actually, #1 and #3 were, "Don't Play Keno"; #5 added the exception for really high jackpots.)
#8 was, "Always play the maximum number of coins on a slot/VP machine except when there is no benefit in doing so." At one time, there was an additional caveat about playing all of the lines, as there is nothing worse than seeing a jackpot on an unplayed line, but if there are so many lines that you probably wouldn't notice a jackpot on some of them if the machine didn't tell you, this isn't a problem.
#9 was, "The larger the coin in on a slot machine, the looser it tends to be, since a dollar machine with a 97% return makes $3 for every 100 one-coin spins, while a quarter machine requires an 88% return to make the same $3 in the same 100 spins." This is "sort of" true, based on recent profit reports, but it's not as skewed as that (besides, even nickel machines tend to be looser than dollar Megabucks machines).
#10 was, "Did you miss that slot machine jackpot by one symbol? You are not alone - do not make the assumption that, on any particular reel, every symbol has an equal chance of appearing." (Note that in VP (at least in Nevada), except for the "Free Play" card in MultiStrike, every card does have an equal chance of being in a particular spot in the deck.)
In some versions, current rule #5 was replaced with, "Do Not Gamble Online - always assume every 'virtual' deck of cards is marked, all 'virtual' dice are loaded, and all online poker opponents not only have the ability to see your cards, but can rearrange the deck at will," but after somebody (Chris Moneymaker?) won a WSOP main event after qualifying through an online game, I was afraid people wouldn't take the list quite as seriously.
1. THE PRIMARY RULE OF GAMBLING: BEFORE YOU BET IT, ASSUME THERE IS A CHANCE YOU WILL LOSE IT. Don't bet it if you need it. (In the words of Oscar Madison (from "The Odd Couple"): "There is no such thing as a 'sure thing'; that's why they call it 'gambling'.")
Never, ever, ever, ever, evereverever, EVER, did I mention "ever", ever, bet anything under the assumption that "I'll win it back eventually." Remember that every light, every bit of carpeting, and every one of those "free" drinks is paid for with the difference between what the losers lost and what the winners won. (Well, that and the price of tickets for whatever show the casino is hosting.)
2. If you bet $10 at blackjack and actually get a blackjack, you are supposed to get back your $10 plus $15 more. At a table that pays 6-5 for a blackjack, you only get back your $10 plus $12 more. STAY AWAY from any table that offers anything less than 3-2 for a blackjack. Yes, that does include every single-deck table on the Las Vegas Strip (and most of the ones downtown, as well). No, you DON'T know how to count cards well enough to beat a 6-5 single-deck table.
3. Unless it pays 250,000-1 for an 8-spot ticket, or 1,400,000-1 for a 9-spot, do not play Keno. I don't care how long they are taking with your food at the cafe. (Next time, try the buffet. For that matter, do any casinos still have keno displays in their cafes?)
4. Every game in the casino has one thing in common: there is no such thing as a "system" for beating that game. Some games have strategies - video poker, for example, since you have a say in which cards to discard - but none of them have a guaranteed, or even "virtually guaranteed," system.
Well, there is one system, and to have it E-mailed to you, have your credit card information ready and go to www.fivebasicrules...
(Actually, there is "sort of" a system for slot machines, but in order to use it, first you have to buy a slot machine, then be able to figure out the pattern of the random numbers (based on the code in the chips and whatever is driving the "clock" that draws the random numbers) so you know in what order each set of three symbols will appear (so that when you see a particular set, you know how many numbers, and thus exactly how much time, it will be before the number for the jackpot comes up), and even at then, the numbers are drawn so fast that you can't "guarantee" a win, but even reducing the odds of a jackpot to 1 in 10,000 is a significant advantage.)
5. Have you ever asked yourself, "Why do casinos have maximum bets on, say, roulette wheels, especially when there are separate 'high roller' areas where obviously the limits are higher?" It's because in the high roller areas, the minimum bets are higher as well - mainly to make the following strategy much harder to work:
(a) Bet the minimum (I'll call it "N dollars" here)
(b) If you win, you are ahead by N dollars; go back to (a)
(c) If you lose, double your bet; if you win, you lost N, but then won 2N, so you are ahead N dollars, and you go back to (a)
(d) Each time you lose, double your previous bet - this way, when you win, you will always be ahead N dollars from the point where you last bet N dollars, and you go back to (a)
Yes, you can lose 10 in a row, at which point you are 1023 times N dollars behind, but (a) the chance of that happening on a roulette wheel that has 00 on it is 1 in 613, and (b) you just bet 1024 times N on the next spin.
Here's where the maximum bet comes in; if it is 1000 times N, then you can't bet 1024 times N on the next spin, so even if you win, you are still behind. If the maximum is only 100 times N, it takes only seven losing spins in a row (which happens one time out of 89) to reach the "cannot catch up" point.
(Well, yes, I suppose you can just go over to one of the "high roller" tables at that point, but you still run the risk of either reaching the table limit (and no, they will not raise it for you once they see what you are doing) or running out of money.)
One other thing to note: while it is true that the chance of, say, black coming up ten times in a row is about 1 in 613, there is also a 1 in 613 chance of black coming up nine times in a row and then the next spin is red.
For those of you interested in the "unabridged" version:
#6 and #7 were pretty much the same as #3. (Actually, #1 and #3 were, "Don't Play Keno"; #5 added the exception for really high jackpots.)
#8 was, "Always play the maximum number of coins on a slot/VP machine except when there is no benefit in doing so." At one time, there was an additional caveat about playing all of the lines, as there is nothing worse than seeing a jackpot on an unplayed line, but if there are so many lines that you probably wouldn't notice a jackpot on some of them if the machine didn't tell you, this isn't a problem.
#9 was, "The larger the coin in on a slot machine, the looser it tends to be, since a dollar machine with a 97% return makes $3 for every 100 one-coin spins, while a quarter machine requires an 88% return to make the same $3 in the same 100 spins." This is "sort of" true, based on recent profit reports, but it's not as skewed as that (besides, even nickel machines tend to be looser than dollar Megabucks machines).
#10 was, "Did you miss that slot machine jackpot by one symbol? You are not alone - do not make the assumption that, on any particular reel, every symbol has an equal chance of appearing." (Note that in VP (at least in Nevada), except for the "Free Play" card in MultiStrike, every card does have an equal chance of being in a particular spot in the deck.)
In some versions, current rule #5 was replaced with, "Do Not Gamble Online - always assume every 'virtual' deck of cards is marked, all 'virtual' dice are loaded, and all online poker opponents not only have the ability to see your cards, but can rearrange the deck at will," but after somebody (Chris Moneymaker?) won a WSOP main event after qualifying through an online game, I was afraid people wouldn't take the list quite as seriously.
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:46:58 AM
permalink
I think #5 is a bit of a myth. It's also not in the spirit of the other 'rules', which are all good rules.
Table mins and maxs keep similar levels of action at the same tables, making is easier for supervisors to do their jobs. Preventing the Martingale is not a priority.
Table mins and maxs keep similar levels of action at the same tables, making is easier for supervisors to do their jobs. Preventing the Martingale is not a priority.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:47:19 AM
permalink
Good rules. Nothing I didn't already know, but a good primer for first-time gamblers and Vegas visitors.
I don't have much else to add, except...
Harrah's Vegas, as of January 2011.
I don't have much else to add, except...
Quote: ThatDonGuyFor that matter, do any casinos still have keno displays in their cafes?)
Harrah's Vegas, as of January 2011.
"I believe I've passed the age/of consciousness and righteous rage/I've found that just surviving was a noble fight...
I once believed in causes too/I had my pointless point of view/And life went on no matter who was wrong or right..." --Billy Joel
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:53:42 AM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyBack in the days when Usenet still mattered, I used to post something (usually to alt.vacation.las-vegas and/or rec.gambling (before it was split into subgroups)) called "Ten Basic Rules of Gambling." After a little editing, I have gotten them down to Five Basic Rules:
2. .... At a table that pays 6-5 for a blackjack, you only get back your $10 plus $12 more. STAY AWAY from any table that offers anything less than 3-2 for a blackjack. Yes, that does include every single-deck table on the Las Vegas Strip (and most of the ones downtown, as well). No, you DON'T know how to count cards well enough to beat a 6-5 single-deck table.
Was 6-5 BJ even around back when Usenet mattered? Back in the early 90's?
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
June 23rd, 2011 at 12:19:23 PM
permalink
Quote: dwheatleyI think #5 is a bit of a myth. It's also not in the spirit of the other 'rules', which are all good rules.
Table mins and maxs keep similar levels of action at the same tables, making is easier for supervisors to do their jobs. Preventing the Martingale is not a priority.
I based this one on something John Scarne wrote in one of his books. IIRC, there was a Caribbean casino that was losing money to Martingale players because there was no maximum bet and they could afford to cover runs of 10 losses; according to him, he told the owners to enforce maximum bets, and "problem solved."
Quote: zippyboyWas 6-5 BJ even around back when Usenet mattered? Back in the early 90's?
Okay, maybe that rule was from one of my later versions (although Usenet "still mattered" long after the early '90s)...
June 23rd, 2011 at 4:50:58 PM
permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuyI based this one on something John Scarne wrote in one of his books. IIRC, there was a Caribbean casino that was losing money to Martingale players because there was no maximum bet and they could afford to cover runs of 10 losses; according to him, he told the owners to enforce maximum bets, and "problem solved."
Okay, maybe that rule was from one of my later versions (although Usenet "still mattered" long after the early '90s)...
Then the casino is foolish. Every spin is random, also for the casino. It doesn't matter if a player plays any system, or teams, or high and low rollers on the same table.
The only reason for max bets is money management: Casinos are gambling too, although they have the advantage they have to make sure that variance does not kill them. The ultimate max bet a casino should employ is the Kelly fraction, which depends on the bankroll of the casino (or group), the variance of that particular game, and the advantage.
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:10:48 PM
permalink
I based this one on something John Scarne wrote in one of his books. IIRC, there was a Caribbean casino that was losing money to Martingale players because there was no maximum bet and they could afford to cover runs of 10 losses; according to him, he told the owners to enforce maximum bets, and "problem solved."
Actually Scarne says he did this for the Curacao Hilton in the Netherlands Antilles. He had the casino manager raise the minimum bet form $25 to $100. The plaer eventually lost back the $400,000 he was ahead back to the house. Scrane was a great magician, helped GI's be protected from crooked dice and card cheats. I am sure raising the limits caused the player to crash earlier, that's all.
I admired Scarne greatly but this was not his only mathematical error of sorts. Read his HE on BJ, splitting 10's, etc.
The reason for the max is to have your bigger betters serviced by your best dealers, pit bosses, etc, A casino only has a limited number of talented and likeable dealers.
Actually Scarne says he did this for the Curacao Hilton in the Netherlands Antilles. He had the casino manager raise the minimum bet form $25 to $100. The plaer eventually lost back the $400,000 he was ahead back to the house. Scrane was a great magician, helped GI's be protected from crooked dice and card cheats. I am sure raising the limits caused the player to crash earlier, that's all.
I admired Scarne greatly but this was not his only mathematical error of sorts. Read his HE on BJ, splitting 10's, etc.
The reason for the max is to have your bigger betters serviced by your best dealers, pit bosses, etc, A casino only has a limited number of talented and likeable dealers.
