## Poll

 <= 20 4 votes (22.22%) 21 - 30 7 votes (38.88%) 31 - 40 6 votes (33.33%) 41 - 50 No votes (0%) 51 - 60 No votes (0%) >= 61 1 vote (5.55%)

18 members have voted

pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:33:40 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

call some post about an average number of rolls prior to the point either being made or lost and think the figure was 8 but can't really recall.

The average number of rolls to get back to "coming out" is 3+62/165 = 3.375757576. As you said earlier 1 out of 3 resolve immediately as a craps or 7,11. So you would expect this sum to be slightly higher than 3.

The number you are thinking of is the number of dice rolls the average thrower needs to throw before he is finished. In decimal it is 8.5255102.
In fractions it is (3+62/165)*495/196 where 495/196=2.5255 is the average number of "come out rolls" that he needs.

At 48 rolls per hour that is a healthy 75 seconds between rolls. Most of the time they should do at least 60 with a full table if not more.
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
• Posts: 7086
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:35:02 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

... Are these average?

I suspect that the tables were overwhelmed with wagers during those record sessions, slowing down the action to give the 36 rolls/hr for Ms. Demauro and 38 rolls/hr for Mr. Fujitake. Not at all what I would expect as average conditions.
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14484
April 2nd, 2011 at 4:44:27 PM permalink
I thought the record breaking Borgata roll was a small group of neophytes who had just had an introductory lecture and didn't press bets or do anything complicated. It started out rather early in the day, table must have become more crowded later though and once the word got out... who knows? Do you think any of the crew called their friends from the dealer break room?
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
April 2nd, 2011 at 7:18:46 PM permalink
Those record breaking rolls are averages of 95-97 seconds per roll. But I imagine once you get over 80 rolls most of the casinos is crowding around and wanting to place bets. I could imagine at the end there were 5 minutes between throws.

Yoyomama, where did you get the number of pass line throws on those record breaking throws? I've never seen them posted? How do I interpret them? I think that is the number of times the point was thrown.

Quote: WSJ numbers guys

MAY 28, 2009
Frank Scoblete, co-founder of the Web site Golden Touch Craps. “The more come-out rolls, the easier to get to 154. During the come-out, you can win, you can lose, but you can’t lose the dice.”

Michael Shackleford, an adjunct professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, estimated the probability by running 21 billion simulations, and finding that six times shooters rolled 154 times or more. That makes it a one-in-3.5 billion shot, an estimate reported by the Newark Star-Ledger. More simulations would have yielded a more-precise estimate, but Shackleford noted that as it was, his simulations took all night.

{note, the simulation was a first guess by Michael, he subsequently analytically did the correct calculation at one in 5.59 billion}
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/crunching-the-numbers-on-a-craps-record-703/

If I interpret "pass line wins" as the number of come-out rolls, then they are smaller than average. It would be nice to know how many points were hit, and how many "come out rolls were thrown".
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
• Posts: 5994
April 2nd, 2011 at 8:42:31 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

According to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.

The wizard comes throught again. It really depends on the number of people at the table. But with 10 players, five on each side, all playing pass line, I think you will find about 20 percent of them playing center bets and another 50 percent playing place bets and come bets. With other bets being placed, I think that you get to about 1 minute per roll.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
• Posts: 199
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:27:22 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

According to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.

Wiz: Your game comparison table shows 48 "hands per hour" and I am pretty sure that means decisions, not rolls. On this page:
You show Kilby's table, which shows the rolls per hour for different number of players. 100 per hour is shown for a 11 players, 120 for 9 players. 120/3.38~36 pass line decisions.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
• Posts: 7895
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:27:25 PM permalink
The Wizard's own site, Ask the Wizard Craps Q&A has much higher values.

Players,Rolls per hour
1, 249
3, 216
5, 144
7, 135
9, 123
11,102

Casino Operations Management,
by Jim Kilby (Author), Jim Fox (Author), Anthony F. Lucas (Author), 1998.
DrEntropy
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
• Posts: 199
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:40:07 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

The Wizard's own site, Ask the Wizard Craps Q&A has much higher values.

Wow, we posted this same info at almost the exact same time!
Anyway, I have Kilby's book and can confirm these values are as quoted. I think 120 rolls per hour is a good rule of thumb, and easy to remember (2 per minute). Fits what I have seen. Sometimes a game can get bogged down though.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 23117
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:58:58 PM permalink
Thanks for the correction. I forgot that information from Kilby's book. So it would seem the 48 does refer to come out rolls per hour. I apologize for the error.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009