Craps poll question ...
Poll
 | 4 votes (22.22%) | ||
| | 7 votes (38.88%) | ||
| | 6 votes (33.33%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (5.55%) |
18 members have voted
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:01:36 AM
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Dear Mr. Craps Expert TBD ...
Suppose you are playing Craps ... kind of a standard game, maybe the table is half full ... 10 players or so ... all kind of betting like Craps players do ... you bet only on the pass line and nothing else. Never take odds ... About how many decisions per hour will you have for your PL wagers?
If you work in a big house and have that number, please share ...
--Ms. D.
Suppose you are playing Craps ... kind of a standard game, maybe the table is half full ... 10 players or so ... all kind of betting like Craps players do ... you bet only on the pass line and nothing else. Never take odds ... About how many decisions per hour will you have for your PL wagers?
If you work in a big house and have that number, please share ...
--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:21:03 AM
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I track rolls. It comes in at an average of 30-40 PL decisions per hour. The main determinant is the amount of players, how much action there is, and the speed of the dealers/stickman.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
April 2nd, 2011 at 10:09:49 AM
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Awesome ... that's what I wanted teddys.
Any other experts out there?
--Ms. D.
Any other experts out there?
--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
April 2nd, 2011 at 10:45:30 AM
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One problem with nailing down a good number is that the number of players will fluctuate. When the table gets hot, the number of players increases, buy ins occur, more action in the middle requiring the stick to determine payouts, etc. But if the table is cold, you can expect an average of three or four rolls between each PL resolution, which may take less than 60 seconds. I voted for 30 an hour since two minutes to resolve a wager, "feels" about average. No hard data behind it at all.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
April 2nd, 2011 at 10:59:37 AM
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30-40 decisions per hour??
Man, you sure ain't never been on one of those Florida Gambling Boats. They keep the dice moving there! FAST!!
The Strip is fast, Downtown a bit more leisurely, Boulder Strip downright slow. Sometimes its break-in dealers, but mainly it just seems to be habit. Even on an unpopulated table you can have a dealer who gets jammed up with one bettor's mistake or something and a good stickman will watch that he doesn't run over the base dealers. Even if things are going smoothly and there are a variety of bets to be serviced, its still going to more than 30.
30 would be a good estimate for a very leisurely game, but 40 would be a much better estimate. I'd add even a bit more if you are on the Strip even if its an uncrowded table and none of the crew are seeking an early-out or anything.
In the world of Comp Calculations some places use 30 but in the real world I think you are going to find that even Downtown 30 is simply too low to be an actual figure. Its more a figure used for Comp purposes because its easy to work with.
Man, you sure ain't never been on one of those Florida Gambling Boats. They keep the dice moving there! FAST!!
The Strip is fast, Downtown a bit more leisurely, Boulder Strip downright slow. Sometimes its break-in dealers, but mainly it just seems to be habit. Even on an unpopulated table you can have a dealer who gets jammed up with one bettor's mistake or something and a good stickman will watch that he doesn't run over the base dealers. Even if things are going smoothly and there are a variety of bets to be serviced, its still going to more than 30.
30 would be a good estimate for a very leisurely game, but 40 would be a much better estimate. I'd add even a bit more if you are on the Strip even if its an uncrowded table and none of the crew are seeking an early-out or anything.
In the world of Comp Calculations some places use 30 but in the real world I think you are going to find that even Downtown 30 is simply too low to be an actual figure. Its more a figure used for Comp purposes because its easy to work with.
April 2nd, 2011 at 11:06:37 AM
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According to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 2nd, 2011 at 12:13:39 PM
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My limited stats over the years.
119 hours
12,186 rolls
102.4 average
4.64 sd
More times I am at a craps table with only a few players so I would think my avg may be slightly on the high side since I do see many rolls in an hour on average.
One's mileage will vary.
With rolls per hour one can expect average # of pass line decisions:
formula:
rolls/(557/165)=average#
119 hours
12,186 rolls
102.4 average
4.64 sd
More times I am at a craps table with only a few players so I would think my avg may be slightly on the high side since I do see many rolls in an hour on average.
One's mileage will vary.
With rolls per hour one can expect average # of pass line decisions:
rolls avg # sd
48 14.22 3.16
60 17.77 3.54
70 20.74 3.82
80 23.70 4.08
90 26.66 4.33
100 29.62 4.57
103 30.51 4.63
108 31.99 4.75
120 35.55 5.00
formula:
rolls/(557/165)=average#
April 2nd, 2011 at 2:10:53 PM
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Average rolls between come out is (3+62/165)=3.375757576.
I'll take the Wizard's word for it that casinos assume 48 rolls/hour (75 seconds per roll), but I've never seen it that slow.
But 100 rolls/hour = average 30 come out rolls (36 seconds per roll) seems brisk. Most books seem to use 70.
I sincerely doubt the 40 come out rolls per hour is possible with a full table on a sustained basis.
I'll take the Wizard's word for it that casinos assume 48 rolls/hour (75 seconds per roll), but I've never seen it that slow.
But 100 rolls/hour = average 30 come out rolls (36 seconds per roll) seems brisk. Most books seem to use 70.
I sincerely doubt the 40 come out rolls per hour is possible with a full table on a sustained basis.
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:03:19 PM
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Okay, what are we talking about? I'm confused.
PassLine bets are decided immediately by: 2, 3, 7, 11, 12. Now that is going to be 33.33 percent.
PassLine bets have deferred decisions by the shooter initially establishing a point and then either making or failing to make that point.
I seem to recall some post about an average number of rolls prior to the point either being made or lost and think the figure was 8 but can't really recall.
So I guess we should somehow differentiate between dice rolls per hour and "hands" per hour.
The figure given "30" at EasyVegas is for "hands per hour"... I take this to be the equivalent of "PassLine Decisions per hour" but I do admit that I think the figure is far too low.
PassLine bets are decided immediately by: 2, 3, 7, 11, 12. Now that is going to be 33.33 percent.
PassLine bets have deferred decisions by the shooter initially establishing a point and then either making or failing to make that point.
I seem to recall some post about an average number of rolls prior to the point either being made or lost and think the figure was 8 but can't really recall.
So I guess we should somehow differentiate between dice rolls per hour and "hands" per hour.
The figure given "30" at EasyVegas is for "hands per hour"... I take this to be the equivalent of "PassLine Decisions per hour" but I do admit that I think the figure is far too low.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 19, 2019
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:13:15 PM
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Patricia Demauro
May 23th 2009
at The Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa
Atlantic City, New Jersey
4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins
Stanley Fujitake (RunnerUp)
May 28th 1989
at The California Hotel & Casino
Las Vegas, Nevada
3 Hours and 6 Minutes
118 Rolls
18 Pass Line Wins
Are these average?
May 23th 2009
at The Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa
Atlantic City, New Jersey
4 Hours and 18 Minutes
154 Rolls
25 Pass Line Wins
Stanley Fujitake (RunnerUp)
May 28th 1989
at The California Hotel & Casino
Las Vegas, Nevada
3 Hours and 6 Minutes
118 Rolls
18 Pass Line Wins
Are these average?
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:33:40 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffcall some post about an average number of rolls prior to the point either being made or lost and think the figure was 8 but can't really recall.
The average number of rolls to get back to "coming out" is 3+62/165 = 3.375757576. As you said earlier 1 out of 3 resolve immediately as a craps or 7,11. So you would expect this sum to be slightly higher than 3.
The number you are thinking of is the number of dice rolls the average thrower needs to throw before he is finished. In decimal it is 8.5255102.
In fractions it is (3+62/165)*495/196 where 495/196=2.5255 is the average number of "come out rolls" that he needs.
At 48 rolls per hour that is a healthy 75 seconds between rolls. Most of the time they should do at least 60 with a full table if not more.
April 2nd, 2011 at 3:35:02 PM
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Quote: Yoyomama... Are these average?
I suspect that the tables were overwhelmed with wagers during those record sessions, slowing down the action to give the 36 rolls/hr for Ms. Demauro and 38 rolls/hr for Mr. Fujitake. Not at all what I would expect as average conditions.
April 2nd, 2011 at 4:44:27 PM
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I thought the record breaking Borgata roll was a small group of neophytes who had just had an introductory lecture and didn't press bets or do anything complicated. It started out rather early in the day, table must have become more crowded later though and once the word got out... who knows? Do you think any of the crew called their friends from the dealer break room?
April 2nd, 2011 at 7:18:46 PM
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Those record breaking rolls are averages of 95-97 seconds per roll. But I imagine once you get over 80 rolls most of the casinos is crowding around and wanting to place bets. I could imagine at the end there were 5 minutes between throws.
Yoyomama, where did you get the number of pass line throws on those record breaking throws? I've never seen them posted? How do I interpret them? I think that is the number of times the point was thrown.
If I interpret "pass line wins" as the number of come-out rolls, then they are smaller than average. It would be nice to know how many points were hit, and how many "come out rolls were thrown".
Yoyomama, where did you get the number of pass line throws on those record breaking throws? I've never seen them posted? How do I interpret them? I think that is the number of times the point was thrown.
Quote: WSJ numbers guys
MAY 28, 2009
Frank Scoblete, co-founder of the Web site Golden Touch Craps. “The more come-out rolls, the easier to get to 154. During the come-out, you can win, you can lose, but you can’t lose the dice.”
Michael Shackleford, an adjunct professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, estimated the probability by running 21 billion simulations, and finding that six times shooters rolled 154 times or more. That makes it a one-in-3.5 billion shot, an estimate reported by the Newark Star-Ledger. More simulations would have yielded a more-precise estimate, but Shackleford noted that as it was, his simulations took all night.
{note, the simulation was a first guess by Michael, he subsequently analytically did the correct calculation at one in 5.59 billion}
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/crunching-the-numbers-on-a-craps-record-703/
If I interpret "pass line wins" as the number of come-out rolls, then they are smaller than average. It would be nice to know how many points were hit, and how many "come out rolls were thrown".
April 2nd, 2011 at 8:42:31 PM
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Quote: WizardAccording to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.
The wizard comes throught again. It really depends on the number of people at the table. But with 10 players, five on each side, all playing pass line, I think you will find about 20 percent of them playing center bets and another 50 percent playing place bets and come bets. With other bets being placed, I think that you get to about 1 minute per roll.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:27:22 PM
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Quote: WizardAccording to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.
Wiz: Your game comparison table shows 48 "hands per hour" and I am pretty sure that means decisions, not rolls. On this page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/
You show Kilby's table, which shows the rolls per hour for different number of players. 100 per hour is shown for a 11 players, 120 for 9 players. 120/3.38~36 pass line decisions.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:27:25 PM
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The Wizard's own site, Ask the Wizard Craps Q&A has much higher values.
Players,Rolls per hour
1, 249
3, 216
5, 144
7, 135
9, 123
11,102
Casino Operations Management,
by Jim Kilby (Author), Jim Fox (Author), Anthony F. Lucas (Author), 1998.
Players,Rolls per hour
1, 249
3, 216
5, 144
7, 135
9, 123
11,102
Casino Operations Management,
by Jim Kilby (Author), Jim Fox (Author), Anthony F. Lucas (Author), 1998.
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:40:07 PM
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Wow, we posted this same info at almost the exact same time!Quote: pacomartinThe Wizard's own site, Ask the Wizard Craps Q&A has much higher values.
Anyway, I have Kilby's book and can confirm these values are as quoted. I think 120 rolls per hour is a good rule of thumb, and easy to remember (2 per minute). Fits what I have seen. Sometimes a game can get bogged down though.
"Mathematical expectation has nothing to do with results." (Sklansky, Theory of Poker).
April 2nd, 2011 at 9:58:58 PM
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Thanks for the correction. I forgot that information from Kilby's book. So it would seem the 48 does refer to come out rolls per hour. I apologize for the error.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
April 3rd, 2011 at 5:47:14 AM
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Quote: WizardAccording to my game comparison guide, craps has 48 rolls per hour. I tend to think that is on the low side, but it is what a major Vegas casino assumes for comp purposes. The ratio of pass line rolls to total rolls is 1 to 3.38. So the expected pass line bets per hour would be 48/3.38 = 14.2.
I know some others have answered already, but in class I asked how many rolls per hour they wanted and was told 80-100 was ideal. That is total rolls so I'll let someone who wasn't dealing craps until late last night and thus has a clear head do the math on it if they like.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
April 3rd, 2011 at 10:57:52 AM
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Quote: WizardThanks for the correction. I forgot that information from Kilby's book. So it would seem the 48 does refer to come out rolls per hour. I apologize for the error.
So 48 come out rolls would seem to be 162 rolls per hour or one roll every 22 seconds. Probably easy to do with 4 players who aren't doing anything unusual. It seems to me one of the biggest slowdowns is people who habitually throw the dice so they bounce off the table onto the floor.
I saw one guy who had over a dozen bets on the table and would change them nearly every single throw of the dice. I think he was trying to read the neutron particles.
May 2nd, 2019 at 1:08:30 PM
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Hi Paco:
can you give me a brief explanation of the 3 + 62/165 calculation. I have been trying to figure out the 3.38 rolls for a while now!
Thanks very much!!
Barry
can you give me a brief explanation of the 3 + 62/165 calculation. I have been trying to figure out the 3.38 rolls for a while now!
Thanks very much!!
Barry
May 2nd, 2019 at 1:46:42 PM
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Barry, you are responding to an eight year old postQuote: BarryHi Paco:
can you give me a brief explanation of the 3 + 62/165 calculation. I have been trying to figure out the 3.38 rolls for a while now!
Thanks very much!!
Barry
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 2nd, 2019 at 2:00:26 PM
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Good point on the 8 years!!
But I am still trying to figure out the math :)
But I am still trying to figure out the math :)
May 2nd, 2019 at 4:00:54 PM
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There is a 12/36 chance it will take 1 roll
There is a 10/36 chance the come out roll is a 6 or 8, and it will then take 1+(36/11)
There is a 8/36 chance the come out roll is a 5 or 9, and it will then take 1+(36/10)
There is a 6/36 chance the come out roll is a 4 or 10, and it will then take 1+(36/9)
Totalling it all up=3.376
There is a 10/36 chance the come out roll is a 6 or 8, and it will then take 1+(36/11)
There is a 8/36 chance the come out roll is a 5 or 9, and it will then take 1+(36/10)
There is a 6/36 chance the come out roll is a 4 or 10, and it will then take 1+(36/9)
Totalling it all up=3.376
