kengam77
kengam77
Joined: Jan 25, 2011
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:33:20 AM permalink
Mike Shaq,

Can you figure out for me the odds of hitting 3 royals (jorbetter) using perfect strategy in 9000 hands? Also can you give me the odds of hitting 5 royals in 13000 hands?

I would appreciate it if you explained how you came up with your answer.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:56:36 AM permalink
1. First determine the number you should get n the specified number of hands. Call that m. So in 9,000 hands you should hit 9,000/40,000=0.225.
2. The formula for the event in question happening exactly n times is e^-m*m^x/x!.

In the case of your first question, the odds of exactly 5 royals is e^-0.225*0.225^5/5! =~ 1 in 261,000.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kengam77
kengam77
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March 28th, 2011 at 7:58:26 AM permalink
I really wanted the odds of hitting exactly 3 royals in 8862 hands. Can you show your work?
kengam77
kengam77
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:15:52 AM permalink
Thanks for your help with this. There is a book (with casino) out there that is trying to call foul on a player who hit 3 royals in 8862 hands. They are claiming that he used a bot and that he manipulated the software to produce the royals as it was mathematically impossible to do what he did. I have been defending the guy and wanted help with the math. I used a calcualter and got P = 0.0014518789445248 of hitting exactly 3 royals which isn't all that impossible.

Oh and this book is stiffing this guy out of $46,000
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:19:11 AM permalink
Quote: kengam77

the odds of hitting 3 royals using perfect strategy in 9000 hands?

While you are all using a calculator and I am removing my shoes, could we determine:
How long does it take to play 9,000 hands of Video Poker.
What are the odds of someone who is skillful at VP being able to actually remain alert and make no mistakes during that time period?
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:22:20 AM permalink
Quote: kengam77

Oh and this book is stiffing this guy out of $46,000

I wonder if they even bothered to determine the odds of it being legitimately accomplished before they decided to stiff him? Since this is an online casino/sports-book somewhere, just what can ever be done about it?
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:28:42 AM permalink
Quote: kengam77

I really wanted the odds of hitting exactly 3 royals in 8862 hands. Can you show your work?



I just showed you how to do it yourself.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
kengam77
kengam77
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:28:57 AM permalink
Depends on the software. If the softare auto holds winning hands and if they have a fast deal button you can play much faster. The casino in question does both. I am very experienced and I havo no problem playing 18-19 hands per minute. A novice would play at about 12 hands per minute.
kengam77
kengam77
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:33:54 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I wonder if they even bothered to determine the odds of it being legitimately accomplished before they decided to stiff him? Since this is an online casino/sports-book somewhere, just what can ever be done about it?




Honestly the guys running the show are clueless. I don't think they were planning to pay this guy and wanted to use bot play as an excuse. They contend that he didn't even stop to admire his $20k royal and dealt another hand 4 seconds later. The logs actually showed that he hit the Royal, played another hand 4 seconds later and then took a 19 minute break from play. That sounds pretty realistic to me.

I am trying to help this guy get paid, which is not going to be easy. The book will take a public hit especially since they are a "forum book" to begin with.
WizardofEngland
WizardofEngland
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March 28th, 2011 at 8:55:10 AM permalink
Name and shame? Or can you direct me to the forum where all action is being discussed? Assuming thats ok with the Wiz?
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/10042-woes-black-sheep-game-ii/#post151727

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