from first post in http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/4555-academy-awards-time
Wizard, I was struck by this level of confidence, not so much that you would be willing to bet it so much as give it out as advice in the face of the possibility that you would be creating some very angry people if you were wrong.
Personally, I would want to be more that 99.9% sure. As someone pointed out elsewhere, if you can land a plane without crashing 99.9% of the time, then at each major international airport there would be several crashes a day. Maybe I'd want to be 99.999% sure. Maybe 99.99999%? Really, sooner or later otherwise you got some 'splaning to do!
"Colin Firth is just not going to lose".Verily the Wiz said unto us.
What I was trying to say is that the probability of Colin Firth losing was the kind of thing that is theoretically possible, but would be so unlikely that if it did happen you would suspect some kind of foul play. The odds would be on the order of magnitude as they would have been for Ralph Nader winning the 2000 election, the day before the election.
You wouldn't want to be more than 99.9% sure on a trivial thing like the academy awards. Landing a plane, sure. Actually, there are few things that I would want to be, or could be, more than 99.9% sure. Maybe a nuclear power plant? The risk is proportional to the probability.
I have been somewhat fascinated by how inadequate 99.9% is for many things, yet it still gets quoted as if more than sufficient. Atlanta and O'Hare and many more have more than 2000+ flights a day, thus one in a thousand unsafe? yikes. Do you drive everyday and get in an accident once every 3 years? Then you drive without incident better than 99.9% of your days driving. And, yep, nuclear power plant safety better be better than 99.9% .
Personally, I would want to be more that 99.9% sure.
Just to clarify, I would be happy betting with odds like that, but would be cautious about broadcasting it if I had any status as someone to listen to [which I don't].
What I was trying to say is that the probability of Colin Firth losing was the kind of thing that is theoretically possible, but would be so unlikely that if it did happen you would suspect some kind of foul play.
I don't mean to be hypercritical, and certainly you can point to being right here after all.