So good, it needs its own thread

Its a GREAT question to ponder. Some won't answer because of feelings, they may sound inconsistent with previous or future postings. No worries, its not a contest guys. Hot numbers? Cold numbers? Most claim they mean nothing, perhaps.


>>>> I'll track the last 350 numbers but I will especially look at the last 25 that hit.

I will pick 5 numbers for you, I will go ALL THE WAY back and find 5 that have not hit, those are your 5. (its all flat betting)

I will pick 5 for myself, choosing 5 that have hit twice within the last 25 spins. I'll even UP the question. Within those 25, no numbers have three hits on them YET.

Is this still fair? Remember, no more RACE for a number to have three hits on it like I had asked a few months back. We are both starting out 0-0 with 13 spins left (38 total). We would do this over hundreds of trials.

At the end, we should finish around the same, correct? Not spot on perfect but around the same? This is not a challenge in any form but only a question. People can not have it both ways with their view regarding PAST numbers mean nothing. BTW, no, its not a tilted wheel, lol.

Well.....thoughts?

Ken

We both end up about the same number of hits.

About 1.7 each per trial of 13 spins.

Quote: thecesspit

We both end up about the same number of hits.

About 1.7 each per trial of 13 spins.

(Not arguing sir).....Ok, so for the record, myself picking numbers with 2 hits (no hits of 3 yet within the 25), no 'advantage'. Got it.

Ken

So what was so good about this question of the obvious?

Amaze me... I must have missed a learning point here?

I should be more specific. The question is really only for those who feel that past numbers are useless. If you dont feel they are useless, no real need to answer.

In the end, I say you're wrong. Does THAT mean anything? No.

Dont forget, within 38 spins we are suppose to get around 3-4 numbers with 3 hits. I'm picking 5 numbers with TWO hits and no numbers with 3 hits within those 25 recorded, yet.

Your numbers have not hit in over 300 spins. Same results over 'X' number of sessions?

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Your numbers have not hit in over 300 spins. Same results over 'X' number of sessions?

The are HOT! And also DUE!

Quote: weaselman

The are HOT!

Yeah, beautiful women passing by are hot ... and it sure is high time one of them gave me all her money and threw herself at my feet. Thats due, thats long over due! Sure doesn't mean its likely to happen though. And its certainly no more likely to happen with the next one than any other one.

Its the old story of that annunciator showing the past results at the roulette wheel... usually the past ten or fifteen. If you want to use those results as a basis for making your decision, fine. If you want to chart the wheel and get a more lengthy sample, fine. But a number that has not come in 300 spins still has a 1 in 38 chance of coming up on the next one.

You can say... its a trend: the wheel is consciously avoiding your number X and will continue to do so. You can also say its unnatural and immoral for the wheel to avoid X for so long so X is now more likely to appear since in all the umpteen zillions of wheel histories long time-periods of No-X are rare.

Unless its a biased wheel, it all makes no difference.

Quote: mrjjj

I should be more specific. The question is really only for those who feel that past numbers are useless.
In the end, I say you're wrong. Does THAT mean anything? No.

It means no more than if you said "I think 1+1=3, and all of you who don't agree are wrong."

But let's put this in clear terms, because you seem to have such trouble articulating what your questions are. Here is my proposed experiment:

Step 1: You can track, chart, observe, or record any number of spins on a roulette wheel prior to the Start Spin. You decide when the Start Spin will occur.
Step 2: When you're done, you decide which four numbers you believe will occur (a) more frequently and which four will occur (b) less frequently in the future 1000 spins.
Step 3: After your prediction is the Start Spin. The results of the next 1000 spins, including the Start Spin, will be recorded.
Step 4: At the end of the recorded 1000 spins, I predict that there will be (a) no statistically significant difference in the frequency of the numbers chosen in 2(a) vs. 2(b). Moreover, I also predict that (b) the numbers you predicted for 2(a) as being more frequent in the future will not have occurred with sufficient frequency to overcome the house advantage on wagers covering those four numbers. In other words, if you had bet on those four numbers, you'd be in the hole.

I think that's clear enough. How confident are you that you can predict the future?

I would not play roulette, but the "hot" numbers would always be my choice because they may be the result of a biased wheel.
That's the only intelligent thing you can do playing that game.

Quote: dm

I would not play roulette, but the "hot" numbers would always be my choice because they may be the result of a biased wheel.
That's the only intelligent thing you can do playing that game.

If you're going to play, find a single-zero wheel with partage and bet outside (even money) bets. Those only have a 1.35% edge against you. Detecting biases in a physical roulette wheel is a fool's errand with any modern equipment. There's a reason casino-quality roulette wheels cost thousands of dollars.

Quote: MathExtremist

If you're going to play, find a single-zero wheel with partage and bet outside (even money) bets. Those only have a 1.35% edge against you. Detecting biases in a physical roulette wheel is a fool's errand with any modern equipment. There's a reason casino-quality roulette wheels cost thousands of dollars.

I don't know why you quoted me. Your response had no relevance to what I said. Yeah, everybody fly to Europe to pursue that wonderful game with only a 1.35% edge. Or second best, go to Vegas and play BJ with a .3% edge.

If you play roulette, your better off going for the numbers... the variance is what will make you a winner (if at all) while messing around on the outside bets will not get you anywhere.

Okay, that's a simplistic view, but trading EV for variance isn't ugly if you like the GAMBOOOL.

As for MRJJJ's original point... erm, right, yes. Whatever, I know you are wrong, but at least we've got away from the race-with-a-head-start game from before.

Over time, I have changed this question a bit. Why? I do AGREE, its a little unfair but now, we start out at 0-0, I do not have a head start on you. Anyone can insult a post but FEW have the balls to put their name out there with a polite opinion!!

Its a GREAT question to ponder. Some won't answer because of feelings, they may sound inconsistent with previous or future postings. No worries, its not a contest guys. Hot numbers? Cold numbers? Most claim they mean nothing, perhaps.


>>>> I'll track the last 350 numbers but I will especially look at the last 25 that have hit.

I will pick 5 numbers for you, I will look at those 350 numbers and find 5 that have hit the least (very cold), those are your 5. (its all flat betting)

I will pick 5 for myself, choosing 5 that have hit twice within the LAST 35 spins.

Is this still fair? Remember, no more RACE for a number to have three hits on it like I had asked a few months back. We are both starting out 0-0 with 20 spins left. We would do this over hundreds of trials (hypothetically).

At the end, we should finish around the same, correct? Not spot on perfect but around the same? This is not a challenge in any form but only a question. People can not have it both ways with their view regarding PAST numbers mean nothing. BTW, no, its not a tilted wheel, lol.

Well.....thoughts?

Ken

just bet the mortgage on 37.

I always bet WITH the trending numbers at roulette. It cannot be worse than a random bet, and might - just might - be consistent with a wheel or dealer bias. And I am a believer that SOME roulette dealers can alter the probabilities just a bit with their sense of wheel speed and their release point and ball speed. I absolutely believe a fellow in my local establishment has such a skill... ;-)

Quote: midwestgb

I am a believer that SOME roulette dealers can alter the probabilities just a bit with their sense of wheel speed and their release point and ball speed. I absolutely believe a fellow in my local establishment has such a skill...

Perhaps he does. I wonder why he is still driving a crappy car and standing on his feet all day long hoping for tips instead of smoke and insults from players. If he has such a skill, is he too dumb to have a confederate sit down and do some straight up betting? Must sure be real skillful too, what with the rule about his not looking at the wheel during ball release.

Quote: FleaStiff

what with the rule about his not looking at the wheel during ball release.

Where do they have that rule? Not in any casino I've ever been in.

Quote: EvenBob

Where do they have that rule? Not in any casino I've ever been in.

Although the croupier may look into the wheel to find the rim, once the ball is set and spun he may not look into it again until the ball has settled and he needs to identify the winning number. He is to keep his eyes on the layout at all times to prevent past posting. I'm not saying they all comply, but that is the procedure they're supposed to follow.

Quote: Face

Although the croupier may look into the wheel to find the rim, once the ball is set and spun he may not look into it again until the ball has settled and he needs to identify the winning number. He is to keep his eyes on the layout at all times to prevent past posting. I'm not saying they all comply, but that is the procedure they're supposed to follow.

I have never been told where to look while spinning. As the action from picking up the ball to releasing takes less than two secondsI dont think it matters where you look. Although you are correct we are not supposed to look into the wheel until after the ball has landed. We were taught to listen to the ball land, count to three whilst checking all the outside bets and clocking how much was on what, then glance quickly to ascertain the number.

I'm an ex-dealer too. I spent countless hours dealing roulette and the question of 'aim' has come up routinely in the past.

I'm convinced that my sub-conscious mind was able to 'calculate' the wheel speed and speed of the ball's release and give me a general 'clue' as to where the ball has a better chance of landing. That said, there are frets and canoes and weird bounces that come into play, making it less reliable than simply 'knowing' the speeds of the moving parts. Additionally, while I always entertained myself by (silently) predicting where the ball was more likely to land, I considered it highly unethical to either share that information or invite a friend to come to my table.

I know it's anecdotal, but a player put a toke bet (a large one) on a number that had just hit. I 'tried' for a release point that I thought would give me a better chance of winning. After announcing "$900 and down for the dealers", he bet on it again for me. I then 'tried' to hit the opposite side of the wheel and did exactly that. I think it would have raised a few eyebrows had I nailed the same toke bet number again :)