Would you bet on self-driving vehicles if

Would you bet/invest on self-driving vehicles if stats eventually and clearly showed there were fewer accidents compared to human drivers?

Or would you bet on human fear and distrust that reading about the worst self-driving accidents would put people off the actual results or distrust of the data collectors?

It depends on the timeframe. Most humans are illogical and fearful of massive changes, so I suspect there will be a long transition period to become the norm. But, since many automakers are also researching self-driving, I don't think there is an inherent investment conflict (they will all probably get there around the same time, some may be a couple years quicker.)

But, I cannot think of a circumstance where somebody has to choose between investing in just self-driving or just human driving (buying stock in any major auto company covers both.) Now, I think many will be skeptical of self-driving initially and there will be some backlash to it (like we are seeing in San Francisco), but I doubt this will effect investment choices in any long-term way.

Also, and this is totally anecdotal, but I feel like personally everyone I know who bashes self-driving "and will never trust it," are probably some of the worst drivers in world history (endless tickets, accidents, drive like morons, etc...). I always want to respond, "I think I would trust a PS2 AI to drive better than you."

In San Francisco they are disabling self-driving cars by taking an orange traffic cone and place it on the hood of the car. As long as the traffic cone is on the hood the self-driving car will sit there until time ends. Yeah that's what I trust, a vehicle that's that stupid.

They aren't stuck. They are discerning the various patterns only they can see.

Nope. Not unless it’s more or less forced upon people by taking away options. People legitimately believe that they’re safer driving their own vehicle than public transit despite overwhelming statistical evidence to the contrary as well. I get that public transit generally sucks most places….different issue.

It’s the thought, desire, or illusion of being in control of our own destiny while you imagine all these things that can happen, and make the news when they do because it’s not routine like traffic fatalities. That’s just human psychological instinct that is never going away.

Maybe a more interesting (and gambling related) question:

Would you bet on a self-driving car... to win a NASCAR race?

Discuss...

Dog Hand

Quote: DogHand

Maybe a more interesting (and gambling related) question:

Would you bet on a self-driving car... to win a NASCAR race?

Discuss...

Dog Hand
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I would assuming everything else is the same.

I also believe in about 25 years most new passenger cars sold will be self driving.

The widespread use of fully self-driving cars with absolutely zero human intervention is not happening any time soon. Way too much technology to fix, way too many laws to pass, and way too much infrastructure to build up.

Quote: TigerWu

The widespread use of fully self-driving cars with absolutely zero human intervention is not happening any time soon. Way too much technology to fix, way too many laws to pass, and way too much infrastructure to build up.
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I think we can all agree about that. The question is will it happen and if so when? I am guessing 25 years for it to be widespread. By widespread I would say roughly 33% of all cars.

Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

The widespread use of fully self-driving cars with absolutely zero human intervention is not happening any time soon. Way too much technology to fix, way too many laws to pass, and way too much infrastructure to build up.
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I think we can all agree about that. The question is will it happen and if so when? I am guessing 25 years for it to be widespread. By widespread I would say roughly 33% of all cars.
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I think you'll see it on the freeway long before that but it will never be safe in the city and it will not catch on. All it will take is a couple dead kids and that'll be it.

Quote: EvenBob

Quote: DRich

Quote: TigerWu

The widespread use of fully self-driving cars with absolutely zero human intervention is not happening any time soon. Way too much technology to fix, way too many laws to pass, and way too much infrastructure to build up.
link to original post

I think we can all agree about that. The question is will it happen and if so when? I am guessing 25 years for it to be widespread. By widespread I would say roughly 33% of all cars.
link to original post

I think you'll see it on the freeway long before that but it will never be safe in the city and it will not catch on. All it will take is a couple dead kids and that'll be it.
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That is also what they said about people flying many years ago. Now 2.5 million people fly per day.

Last time I checked I think we lose 40k people a year in auto accidents. How many make the news!? Not many.

If we switched to fully self driving and we dropped the number to 4K per year how many would make the news? 4K!!!!

The VAST MAJORITY of people just will not accept that self driving will be safer. No matter HOW MUCH evidence is presented.

You begin with commercial vehicles, taxis and shuttles. I think driverless vehicles will be at least half the commercial industry and a large segment of the passenger market by 2040.

For our generation all I see is the glorified cruise control lane keep we have now. Many is the time on the highway I come to a construction crossover or an accident with a improvised lane or whatever and think to myself that it will take 100,000,000 miles or more of testing to get all of this down. I see it as one of those things that super-geniuses invent but forget the 1000 little things that come up.

For example, I keep seeing "cars with no controls" meaning no steering wheel, brake, gas, etc. Now, how do you move this car a few feet in the garage or driveway? How does a mechanic properly road test it? How do you pick a parking space out?

As to adoption I find younger people will accept them more than older and females more than males. Draw your own conclusions there.

We all accept driverless trains to shuttle us around in airports. The current entry point for driverless vehicles seems to be driverless buses or trams on specific routes that are funded by local governments.

I could see a redesign of long-haul trucking that might involve eliminating the driver starting from the Mexican seaports (where goods from Asia come in) up through Kansas City and then up to Northern Virginia on the way to the northeastern U.S. At some point around northern Virginia you then introduce drivers into the trucks to drive them to destinations in the cities, but from the Pacific Coast of Mexico through to Northern Virginia you could have one lane (each way) dedicated to trucking and driverless trucks. That is an enormous amount of truck traffic.