Fair and honest disclosure abounds thoughout Las Vegas ...

I've noticed that fair and honest disclosure abounds throughout the Las Vegas metropolitan area and that it is particularly abundant inside the casinos.

Here are a few of my relevant observations. After this listing of the data, I'll discuss variance.

Honest John's Friendly And Reliable Used Car Lot: Didn't have anyone named John there. They all had weird names, wore turbans, had great big curved knives at their belts. About a dozen salesmen surrounded me, jibber jabbered in some foreign tongue, the only English I heard was "You buy or you die". They were nice enough however since after I bought the car they all helped push it off the lot for me. The lesson to be learned from that of course is that now I know what Honest, Friendly and Reliable mean in Las Vegas.

My next stop was The Vegas Planetarium: An Establishment for the Viewing of the Heavenly Bodies: I certainly thought I would find fair and honest disclosure amongst astronomers. Alas, I was sorely disappointed. It seems there was a two-drink minimum, silicone was all there was available for viewing and the sign that said 99 beautiful girls and 3 ugly ones seems to have the categories transposed.

So then I continued my quest for Fair and Honest Disclosure into the world of the casinos. I waded through the web sites that proclaimed The Odds Are In Your Favor, the marquees that proclaimed Now Offering Six For Five, the Free Play slot certificates and the sea of cards about Kinky Karen who was not from an agency and Palatial Estates that seemed willing to share time with me. I persisted and kept up my quest for fair and honest disclosure. I found craps tables that paid double field bets on 2 and 12 and I found this gorgeous Stick Chick who explained the benefits to me of putting my bank roll on Big Red. I learned the advantages of taking insurance at blackjack and I learned to press the red button that said Spin on it. Must have been all fair and honest disclosure there.

Now I come across a report concerning the Fiesta Rancho and someone who had an adventure with there 100 per cent Full Pay Video Poker machines that full payed him to the tune of a four hundred dollar loss in what appeared to be a rather short period of time. You can all go read his very entertaining report on this website for the exact figures but suffice it for me to say that once again this concept of fair and honest disclosure seems to elude me. How can a 100 percent full pay VP machine cost 400 dollars in such a short time?

I think the term here is called Variance but one wonders: If I buy in for 300.00 at a 1.414 percent game and take 2x odds, why is it I get to Gambler's Ruin so often and I get to a million dollars so seldom? Why do Full Pay machines always seem more aptly described as Full Take machines. Why does the bread always fall buttered side down when I'm in Vegas? Is there an honestly present Index of Buttered Side Down anywhere?

Funny stuff. Keep it up.

From the MSS review: "...made a Pass line bet. Three, craps, line away. In under one minute, I had just obliterated $35 of my own money. ... I was down to a single $5 chip when an angel of mercy appeared-- She threw six passes--I finished up $55."

See, this is what I am referring to! Down to that final $5 chip... and then he started climbing back up into positive territory. With me, I'd have just lost that final $5 chip when the angel of mercy appeared. Whatever it is: Variance, Volatility or Lady Luck, I'd not have had the staying power to still be in the game when that Angel of Mercy appears.

Its not as if I'm making hop bets all over the place and doing that 16.67 percent Big Red bet. I'm doing Basic Strategy of a Line Bet and 2x Odds. You really can't get much more conservative than that 1.414 percent figure!

Now I know the whole town is full of lies, deceit and deception. Its not really going to be Kinky Kathy's first time. I know that! But at 1.414 percent house edge, I should be lasting longer!

Quote: FleaStiff

From the MSS review: "...made a Pass line bet. Three, craps, line away. In under one minute, I had just obliterated $35 of my own money. ... I was down to a single $5 chip when an angel of mercy appeared-- She threw six passes--I finished up $55."

See, this is what I am referring to! Down to that final $5 chip... and then he started climbing back up into positive territory. With me, I'd have just lost that final $5 chip when the angel of mercy appeared. Whatever it is: Variance, Volatility or Lady Luck, I'd not have had the staying power to still be in the game when that Angel of Mercy appears.

Its not as if I'm making hop bets all over the place and doing that 16.67 percent Big Red bet. I'm doing Basic Strategy of a Line Bet and 2x Odds. You really can't get much more conservative than that 1.414 percent figure!

Now I know the whole town is full of lies, deceit and deception. Its not really going to be Kinky Kathy's first time. I know that! But at 1.414 percent house edge, I should be lasting longer!

For your last comment, I recommend Viagra

Quote: RaleighCraps

I recommend Viagra

No, No! I meant last longer against that 1.414 house edge. I don't care about lasting with that dressage-queen, Kinky Kathy.

If I buy in for an even grand, I'm down to zip before the craps cruise is half over. If I buy in for 300, I've seen it go before the first visit from the Tray Lizard.

Quote: FleaStiff

No, No! I meant last longer against that 1.414 house edge. I don't care about lasting with that dressage-queen, Kinky Kathy.

If I buy in for an even grand, I'm down to zip before the craps cruise is half over. If I buy in for 300, I've seen it go before the first visit from the Tray Lizard.

Well, I have found winning the initial bets goes a long way towards making my BR last longer. Unfortunately, I have not been able to figure out how to win those initial bets. On my last trip the table had a pretty solid pattern of a shooter making 3 to 6 points, and then the next 3 or 4 shooters making 0 points, then a shooter would make 3 points, followed by more 7 outs. This pattern lasted for a good 4 hours. Almost all of us got shellacked, save for 1 bettor. He was playing the DP for every shooter (including when he shot). If the shooter made the first point, he would switch to the PL. It worked great for him because NO shooter made only 1 point. Those that made one point, made at least 2, so he always came out close to even, and he won on all the 7 outs.

I think the only guaranteed method of winning is to become professionally adept at past posting, but I would not recommend that course of action.

Keep playing. It converges to $.02 per throw no matter how much odds you put down there on a $5 table.

At 1,000,000 throws, that's still only 20 grand. The tips should be costing you more.

Just keep playing... switch back and forth to the don'ts if you get bored, and it won't make any significant difference in the long run.

But yeah, the only thing I can imagine you're doing wrong is just not playing enough.

Another strategy is to look at it like a job: you are TRYING to get rid of your money instead of play as long as you can, but without risking more than $.02 per throw in the long run. Stack up as much odds as you can to try to get rid of it (EG: reverse martingale your odds bets). One day you will lose in your efforts to get rid of all of your money, and start hitting the house maximum bets in your efforts to toss away all of your money, and you will still be unable to get rid of all your money. When you've tried as hard as you can to get rid of all your money on the odds bets, shrug and fill out the tax forms.

Your intent to accomplish a particular goal is of no relevance in truly random gambling, so why not embrace losing it all until the fateful day when you can't accomplish it.

You will still be assured the same 1.41% house advantage along the way.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Well, I have found winning the initial bets goes a long way towards making my BR last longer. Unfortunately, I have not been able to figure out how to win those initial bets. On my last trip the table had a pretty solid pattern of a shooter making 3 to 6 points, and then the next 3 or 4 shooters making 0 points, then a shooter would make 3 points, followed by more 7 outs. This pattern lasted for a good 4 hours. Almost all of us got shellacked, save for 1 bettor. He was playing the DP for every shooter (including when he shot). If the shooter made the first point, he would switch to the PL. It worked great for him because NO shooter made only 1 point. Those that made one point, made at least 2, so he always came out close to even, and he won on all the 7 outs.

I think the only guaranteed method of winning is to become professionally adept at past posting, but I would not recommend that course of action.

Hahaha, great stuff FleaStiff. How do you write so many good posts?

Quote: teddys

Hahaha, great stuff FleaStiff. How do you write so many good posts?

Gee, if only I were trying to write a good post. I'm just trying to get rich and buy my own casino.

I am almost ready to seek relief in the arms (tentacles?) of Kinky Kathy, but lets face it, if it says "not an agency" then it is indeed an agency!

I'm reminded of the time I exercised self restraint in a Strip Club. Er uh,,, I meant to say Strip Casino. The fairly young and attractive cage employee jokingly asked if I would like the casino to provide a Security Escort to me. You see, I had gone up to her with ONE freakin' white chip and obtained from her my dollar bill. She expressed a strong belief that I should have gambled that one lousy chip away. Now I want you all to know that the only reason I cashed in that final chip was that I just did not want the casino to get my very last dollar. Oh, I don't mean the last one I owned at the time. I mean I had bought in ... and been losing at every game I tried and I was down to ONE chip and I just did not want the casino to tap me out totally. So I cashed that one chip and must have provided entertainment to the entire cage that night!

The reason I'm reminded of this is that I started off this thread with the comments made by the poster who was down very near the felt and then came back. I'm not sure what I should be doing. If I risk all and approach Gamblers Ruin, I get that awful realization that once I'm down to the felt, I ain't gonna be coming back. If I avoid being totally felted, all I get is the option of that escort but I don't really come back from the abyss. Oh, I guess I'm better than going over the edge into the abyss, but lets face, One Freakin' Dollar ain't gonna do much for my recovery.

I recall the time when the Stick and each Base Dealer were saying Down Behind to me, probably in an effort to wake me up to the fact that the table was running well and I should switch to being a Right Bettor. I also recall a few times when the dealers have given me bum advice such as calling No Action on my Don'tBet... and I know that is wrong mathematically. I started making money doing it though!

Its strange how that 1.414 seems to grind me down relentlessly. Heck, even some bus-riding Newbie straight out of an introductory lecture at the Borgata made history. Well, I'd love to have a history making roll but I'd settle for just a Monster Roll.

Quote: FleaStiff

I've noticed that fair and honest disclosure abounds throughout the Las Vegas casinos.
Why do Full Pay machines always seem more aptly described as Full Take machines. Why does the bread always fall buttered side down when I'm in Vegas? Is there an honestly presented Index of Buttered Side Down anywhere?

More on Fair and Honest Disclosure:

I came across a press release type thing about The Riviera now having a competitive edge because it offers 3x4x5x odds in craps. And, of course, the press release thing used my favorite Truth In Advertising phrase "the odds are in your favor".

Now since this little blurb went out with quotations from the Riviera's Director of Table Games, one might think that he knows a bit about Taking and Laying Odds in a craps game and the house edge/player edge figures for those bets. One might also tend to think that as a fairly senior casino executive he knows the utter absurdity of a casino staying in business for long if the odds are in the player's favor! I mean, how they ever gonna fund the executives retirement pension by offering bets that in the player's favor?

And what on earth is this about the Riviera now having "a competitive edge"? They went from a super-stingy 2x odds to the normal and customary 3x4x5x odds that is available at just about half the casinos in Vegas. So you tell me, just what sort of a competitive advantage is that?

Nah, I'm not grumpy this morning ... its just that the toast fell buttered side down again! And just ONCE in my lifetime I would have liked to have seen a press release wherein the director of table games was quoted as saying "we've gone from super-stingy 2x to the usually available 3x4x5x in hopes that players will come play at our dump".

So far the director of table games at the Riviera has not replied to my comments regarding the odds being in the player's favor. Nor has he said anything about how going from a stingy 2x to a widely available 3x4x5x will give all that much of a competitive edge when his casino is a dump on the edge of no man's land.

Quote: FleaStiff

I've noticed that fair and honest disclosure abounds throughout the Las Vegas metropolitan area and that it is particularly abundant inside the casinos.

In addition to fair and honest disclosure that is so pervasive in Las Vegas it seems there is also this question of Player's Choice. Player's Choice is my umbrella term that encompasses the rights and privileges possessed by players who choose to wear fanny packs, play 6:5 blackjack, play at a double zero roulette wheel, play at slot machines, etc.

Its not just a question of terminology such as a Full Pay machine inducing an immediate loss of 400 dollars and therefore being more properly termed a Full Loss machine. Its simply not just a question of what the casino says, its also a question of how the player thinks.

Return with me now to Fleastiff's silly thread: a tale of two casinos: The Riviera and The Sahara.
I presented this that thread from the point of view of the casino's actions towards is customers versus the casino's crying about "the economy, empty rooms, empty airliners, etc."

I now feel moved to post from the view point of the player.
You all remember that "knock out broad who plays poker". Let us examine things a bit more closely particularly as to the point of Awareness.

She is certainly aware that the Riviera and the Sahara are each dumps. They clearly have different qualities about them but each are dumps. She clearly demonstrates an awareness of the drive to get there, the parking, the walk through the casino in high heels, the tedious paperwork, etc. She clearly is aware of the neighborhood's unique aspects and the occupations of the people who frequent that neighborhood which she refers to crack-town. Her mentioning high heels shows an awareness of the effects on males as well, no doubt, as the effects on her arches. So we can't really just write her off as some ignorant Fanny-Packer.

The trouble is that she recently transitioned from Six Spot Video Cleopatra Keno to Five Spot Four Card Video Keno and is happy to be making more money. Now lets face it. A poker player has to know something about math and particularly about statistics. There has to some innate intelligence there, memory skills, observational ability, interpersonal skills, etc. Yet how can a person with skills sit there and talk about the strategy of selecting Keno numbers?

Are players unable to analyze 6:5 properly or simply unwilling to? Would full and frank disclosure by the casino make a difference?
Are we really dealing with a "Sin City" mentality wherein house edge is a meaningless term? Are those players really and truly more interested in that Hilton broad rather the mathematics of the Las Vegas Hilton's side bets?



!

Quote: FleaStiff

Now lets face it. A poker player has to know something about math and particularly about statistics. There has to some innate intelligence there, memory skills, observational ability, interpersonal skills, etc. Yet how can a person with skills sit there and talk about the strategy of selecting Keno numbers?

It's about having beliefs and trust without the need for proof. We trust & believe our Keno numbers will match to perfection, but we have no proof beforehand and eventually we find out the answer to that.

Perhaps. I just wonder how "locals" who are around casinos so much can hold such beliefs and cling to them for so long? Its bad enough that tourists do such things, but locals? Particularly locals who are supposed to be sharp poker players?

I actually just paraphrased JL.

Faith knows no bounds, neither of tongue, color and gender nor intelligence. Like otherwise intelligent people can seriously believe not only in peer pressure driven mainstream religions, but even in repackaged paperback fillings of a failed pulp fiction writer, so can otherwise skilled players fall prey to convoluted fallacies.

Quote: P90

I actually just paraphrased JL.

Faith knows no bounds, neither of tongue, color and gender nor intelligence. Like otherwise intelligent people can seriously believe not only in peer pressure driven mainstream religions, but even in repackaged paperback fillings of a failed pulp fiction writer, so can otherwise skilled players fall prey to convoluted fallacies.

The faulty brain wiring that makes most humans believe in religion, fairies, elves, etc. is the same as that which makes most humans terrible, irrational gamblers. Part of this is our tendency reaffirm what we've professed to believe, over and over, to strengthen that belief in the face of doubt; even a stupid position becomes fiercely defended when it becomes "MY stupid position". So when evidence is presented that refutes gambling systems, gambling beliefs, or religious beliefs, the reaction of the believers is to shout out their beliefs that much longer and louder.

Of course, churches and casinos realize this tendency, and exploit it to the full. There's no functional difference between the slot machine bill acceptor and the collection plate.

Quote: P90

It's about having beliefs and trust without the need for proof. We trust & believe our Keno numbers will match to perfection, but we have no proof beforehand and eventually we find out the answer to that.

Actually, I was trying to focus on the difference between a local "sharpie" who gambles often and a visiting tourist yanking bills from a fanny pack.

Quote: FleaStiff

I've noticed that fair and honest disclosure abounds throughout the Las Vegas metropolitan area and that it is particularly abundant inside the casinos.

Ski resorts and Casinos.
Ski resorts and casinos??? What sort of a combination is that?
Well, they each have the same pricing problems and the same problems dealing with freeloaders.

Ski resorts used to give away their rooms and just about everything else and just make their money selling Lift Tickets. So it didn't take all that long for free-loaders to start showing up at ski resorts: they had the room, the "apres ski" parties, the food, the drinks, ... but they didn't ski so they had no need of lift tickets.

Casinos have the same problem. People who take rooms, partake of buffets, etc. but don't gamble at all or else don't gamble enough. Well, perhaps I should say they don't lose enough. They may be too sharp a gambler. Either way, the casino doesn't make sufficient money on them.

Think of disclosure about some of the carnival games. Yeah the casino can trumpet a low house edge or atleast a fairly low house edge, but its well known that with all those rule variants and exceptions, its clear that many players, even those who wander by while relatively sober, are not actually playing at the trumpeted low house edge. It takes knowledge and practice.

Its the difference between a mathematically precise house advantage and a more realistic house advantage that acknowledges lack of skill, ignorance, mistakes, fatigue, alcohol consumption, etc. When you look at the house edge at craps with 5x odds, you get something that simply is such a narrow margin that paying that darned electric bill seems unlikely.

It seems the real lack of disclosure in gambling is that its real rough to figure out what a reasonable house edge is. The casino wants the drunk and ignorant player, the sharpie gambler is still profitable for the casino but not quite as desirable. Casinos need a mix of customers but how does a casino establish a desired balance between a bunch of sharp card counters varying their bets and a bunch of drunk tourists who don't really know how to play blackjack.

I've seen claims that the casino has a fifty percent house hedge at craps. Well, I've no idea if its actually that high, but its obvious the casin sure ain't struggling along at 0.06 percent house edge.