100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 571
  • Posts: 3680
June 8th, 2022 at 8:23:38 AM permalink
Variance was a b*tch these past 3 days.

Never got a bonus round or bonus round paid squat ($500 Must Hits at $15,$25 or $50/spin).

or +EV situation never paid off (ie: Lucky Buddha @ $60/spin or Ult X Spin poker at $90/spin or Buffalo Diamond @ $6/spin).
Also played River Dragons at slightly lower than Wiz recommendations because competition and played at $5/spin. (Again, Bonus rounds paid squat)

I guess it averages out?
i hit some NICE bonuses at $200 Must Hits last month where it was almost a handpay on every Must Hit i touched but now down overall the past 2 months. :(
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Jun 8, 2022
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
blackjacklad
blackjacklad
Joined: Dec 14, 2017
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 63
June 8th, 2022 at 10:35:42 AM permalink
Variance is a cruel mistress.
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
  • Threads: 186
  • Posts: 3946
June 8th, 2022 at 10:48:15 AM permalink
I once played 3 Card with a flashing dealer and lost $500 in about 20 minutes. It was a cruel lesson. I accept, but nonetheless. Cruel.
NO KILL I
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
June 8th, 2022 at 12:34:33 PM permalink
I have come to appreciate variance as our friend and partner. Without it, no casino would be able to offer any game that can be beaten (+EV). Just imagine if everyone won at or close to expectation. Casinos would be out of business. Casinos count on most players not being able to handle the negative variance, either financially, mentality or both.

The good news is that once you go through a few of these really negative variance runs, it STILL pisses you off just the same. LOL. But you do begin to get used to it....to some degree.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 571
  • Posts: 3680
September 5th, 2022 at 6:11:55 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

The good news is that once you go through a few of these really negative variance runs, it STILL pisses you off just the same. LOL.
But you do begin to get used to it....to some degree.
link to original post

This summer has been brutal variance.
it seems like i'm either losing or winning ~$5k almost each weekend these past few months.

Some of it is self inflicted.
was up $2k on a particular weekend.
Did a walk through and was going to leave but decided to eat lunch there.
then did another walk through before leaving and dropped $4k. :(

Lost $400 on a play when i realized the $500 must hit was at $385 instead of $485.
It was at $450 the night before and could have sworn it was at $460 before lunch but could have been $360.

That pissed me off and i started playing speculative stuff.
the more I lost, the more stupid speculative i started playing.

And yes, i'm now used to it.
Dropping $5k no longer phases me.
I guess it's a good thing since i'm no longer getting stressed about these losses.
ie: sitting down at a $6/spin buffalo like it was a 60cent game
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mukke
Mukke
Joined: Mar 24, 2019
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 64
September 5th, 2022 at 7:56:38 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds


And yes, i'm now used to it.
Dropping $5k no longer phases me.
I guess it's a good thing since i'm no longer getting stressed about these losses.
ie: sitting down at a $6/spin buffalo like it was a 60cent game
link to original post



You know you've graduated the course of variance, when you feel 98% excitement and only 2% anxiety instead of 2% excitement and 98% anxiety finding a $20 AP opportunity...
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 276
  • Posts: 10317
September 5th, 2022 at 8:53:18 PM permalink
Yes you do get used to it so you don't piss your pants so much. You begin to accept it.

I would like to point out in your OP that you said you won a lot more handpays when playing $200 a spin. That's most likely misleading.

For example if the wager just below $200 was $100 per spin (I have seen that at those levels) then any win $1200 - $2400 is a jackpot due to wager level.

So bet $100, getting exactly the same result as $200 in symbols pay and let's say you win $900. No jackpot.

But that same payout at $200 is $1800!

The end result is you feel luckier playing $200 per spin because you keep triggering jackpots, meanwhile the reality is you are not any luckier than the lower denom.

Meanwhile you end up slowing down the game due to the handpays.

There is always a trade-off in the world of advantage play.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 571
  • Posts: 3680
September 6th, 2022 at 6:13:51 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Yes you do get used to it so you don't piss your pants so much. You begin to accept it.

I would like to point out in your OP that you said you won a lot more handpays when playing $200 a spin. That's most likely misleading.

For example if the wager just below $200 was $100 per spin (I have seen that at those levels) then any win $1200 - $2400 is a jackpot due to wager level.

So bet $100, getting exactly the same result as $200 in symbols pay and let's say you win $900. No jackpot.

But that same payout at $200 is $1800!

The end result is you feel luckier playing $200 per spin because you keep triggering jackpots, meanwhile the reality is you are not any luckier than the lower denom.

Meanwhile you end up slowing down the game due to the handpays.

There is always a trade-off in the world of advantage play.
link to original post

um.. i said $200 must hits, not $200/spin.
the denom is .25 and it's the minor. (major = $5k)

so max bet $12.50/spin.
i usually do 6.25 or 3.75
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 571
  • Posts: 3680
September 7th, 2022 at 2:47:09 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Some of it is self inflicted.
was up $2k on a particular weekend.
Did a walk through and was going to leave but decided to eat lunch there.
then did another walk through before leaving and dropped $4k. :(

Lost $400 on a play when i realized the $500 must hit was at $385 instead of $485.
It was at $450 the night before and could have sworn it was at $460 before lunch but could have been $360.

That pissed me off and i started playing speculative stuff.
the more I lost, the more stupid speculative i started playing.
link to original post

You know it is a bad decision and you still do it, this usually means your emotions are overpowering you.

I should have walked away
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 7, 2022
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 276
  • Posts: 10317
September 7th, 2022 at 3:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: darkoz

Yes you do get used to it so you don't piss your pants so much. You begin to accept it.

I would like to point out in your OP that you said you won a lot more handpays when playing $200 a spin. That's most likely misleading.

For example if the wager just below $200 was $100 per spin (I have seen that at those levels) then any win $1200 - $2400 is a jackpot due to wager level.

So bet $100, getting exactly the same result as $200 in symbols pay and let's say you win $900. No jackpot.

But that same payout at $200 is $1800!

The end result is you feel luckier playing $200 per spin because you keep triggering jackpots, meanwhile the reality is you are not any luckier than the lower denom.

Meanwhile you end up slowing down the game due to the handpays.

There is always a trade-off in the world of advantage play.
link to original post

um.. i said $200 must hits, not $200/spin.
the denom is .25 and it's the minor. (major = $5k)

so max bet $12.50/spin.
i usually do 6.25 or 3.75
link to original post



Oh sorry, I misunderstood.

I often play $200 per spin and I win a lot more jackpots than at $100 per spin but for the reason stated above.

I thought you were referring to the spin wager, not the must hit amount.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee

  • Jump to: