What is everyone using for a random # generator?
December 11th, 2010 at 8:29:57 PM
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Hello,
First day on this site as well as first post. Great site I must say.
I have been working on a system for a few weeks and I am now to the point where I want to try and set it up with a random # generator of some sort. I am not a programmer but have educated myself pretty well on microsoft excel functions and have a massive spreadsheet prepared that I am very happy with. The only way I have now to generate outcomes is by manually entering W or L which isn't going to work to well on a 1,000,000 round trial.
If anyone know's how to set up something like that on excel or has any other application available that I could use please let me know. Again, I am not much of a programmer tough.
As for the system, I believe it is very unique and although it has been successful in the trials I have performed so far on a small scale I want to give it the full runaround now with several million rounds of trials.
As for the system, I guess it would be classified as somewhat of a progressive system. But for instance with a $100 bet and 11 consecutive losses the next bet is only $604.13. Also, every single win will increase the Net by the actual size of the base bet (which in my trial I always use $100). It is money ahead with 19 losses and 11 wins on what I call a 6 deep sheet.
I know this won't mean much to anyone without seeing the whole system, but I would like to run it on a simulator before I say much more.
Thanks in advance.
First day on this site as well as first post. Great site I must say.
I have been working on a system for a few weeks and I am now to the point where I want to try and set it up with a random # generator of some sort. I am not a programmer but have educated myself pretty well on microsoft excel functions and have a massive spreadsheet prepared that I am very happy with. The only way I have now to generate outcomes is by manually entering W or L which isn't going to work to well on a 1,000,000 round trial.
If anyone know's how to set up something like that on excel or has any other application available that I could use please let me know. Again, I am not much of a programmer tough.
As for the system, I believe it is very unique and although it has been successful in the trials I have performed so far on a small scale I want to give it the full runaround now with several million rounds of trials.
As for the system, I guess it would be classified as somewhat of a progressive system. But for instance with a $100 bet and 11 consecutive losses the next bet is only $604.13. Also, every single win will increase the Net by the actual size of the base bet (which in my trial I always use $100). It is money ahead with 19 losses and 11 wins on what I call a 6 deep sheet.
I know this won't mean much to anyone without seeing the whole system, but I would like to run it on a simulator before I say much more.
Thanks in advance.
December 12th, 2010 at 6:48:07 AM
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Not a generator per se, but a great free source of truly random numbers:
Random.org
Random.org
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
December 12th, 2010 at 7:30:45 AM
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Input this into a cell in your spread sheet:Quote: mbailey1234Hello ...
The only way I have now to generate outcomes is by manually entering W or L which isn't going to work to well on a 1,000,000 round trial.
If anyone know's how to set up something like that on excel or has any other application available that I could use please let me know. Again, I am not much of a programmer tough.
=INT(RAND()*2)
If you want "W" and "L" instead of 0, 1 then put this:
=if(INT(RAND()*2)=0, "W", "L")
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
December 12th, 2010 at 9:01:50 AM
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What game? Craps? Roulette? etc....
December 12th, 2010 at 2:31:54 PM
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Thanks for the compliment on the site.
I used a Mersenne Twister. However, for proving a betting system won't work, almost any RNG should suffice.
I used a Mersenne Twister. However, for proving a betting system won't work, almost any RNG should suffice.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 12th, 2010 at 2:57:23 PM
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Quote: mbailey1234As for the system, I believe it is very unique and although it has been successful in the trials I have performed so far on a small scale I want to give it the full runaround now with several million rounds of trials.
I doubt it could be "very unique".
With all the expert math and computer people out in the world using their computers since the 80s to find a "system" that can beat a casino game, none has yet to be found and unless you are a real thinker like Einstein, nothing is going to be found that is even new.
Quote: mbailey1234As for the system, I guess it would be classified as somewhat of a progressive system. But for instance with a $100 bet and 11 consecutive losses the next bet is only $604.13. Also, every single win will increase the Net by the actual size of the base bet (which in my trial I always use $100). It is money ahead with 19 losses and 11 wins on what I call a 6 deep sheet.
Where can one make a $604.13 wager?
Internet casino might just take the money, you lose there. I know of no B&M casino that would allow that uneven bet to be made, but good luck to you in finding one.
7 winner chicken dinner!
December 12th, 2010 at 3:56:50 PM
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Wow thanks alot DorthyGale. It worked great. I now have to make some minor adjustments and I think it's ready to go. Is there some way to keep it from automatically running a new set of results everytime you make a cell change some where? Not sure where to find that one in the settings?
I see the "2" would work fine for a coin flip but I will have to look at this a while and think about what needs to be done in like roulette or blackjack. Just thinking out loud here, but European Roulette would be 37 different outcomes and Americian 38. If I were playing black only, red only, odd, even lower 18 or upper 18 etc what would the best way be to articulate that? Leave the generator at the possible 37/38 outcomes and change the stuff afterwards or can you use a decimal place to reflect the odds somehow?
Anyway thanks for the info on the generator. That is one code I hadn't learned yet on excel.
I see the "2" would work fine for a coin flip but I will have to look at this a while and think about what needs to be done in like roulette or blackjack. Just thinking out loud here, but European Roulette would be 37 different outcomes and Americian 38. If I were playing black only, red only, odd, even lower 18 or upper 18 etc what would the best way be to articulate that? Leave the generator at the possible 37/38 outcomes and change the stuff afterwards or can you use a decimal place to reflect the odds somehow?
Anyway thanks for the info on the generator. That is one code I hadn't learned yet on excel.
December 12th, 2010 at 4:00:00 PM
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Where can one make a $604.13 wager you say?
I make down to the penny bets all the time on Bodog sports betting. I realize you can't at a table game but I don't feel that rounding the amount to the nearest $ would skew the trial much.
I make down to the penny bets all the time on Bodog sports betting. I realize you can't at a table game but I don't feel that rounding the amount to the nearest $ would skew the trial much.
December 12th, 2010 at 4:29:47 PM
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Pick one game and stick with it. Don't do too much, don't generalize. One thing only. For single-0 roulette, to generate a random number in the range 1 .. 37 is just:Quote: mbailey1234I see the "2" would work fine for a coin flip but I will have to look at this a while and think about what needs to be done in like roulette or blackjack.
=INT(Rand()*37)+1
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
December 13th, 2010 at 12:11:47 AM
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Alright, it's 1 degree outside in SE IA and I have smoke coming out of my ears, and my computer and used up 47,930KB of my computers storage. But............. I got it done!!! Thanks A BUNCH to DorthyGale for the random generator programming advice.
Like I said in my earlier posts, I am no programmer and although I have alot to learn about Excel, it is the only resource I have (or that I know a little about) right now.
I am sure there is someone out there who could do the same thing that took me about 2 weeks of my spare time, in about 30 minutes, but I just ran 5 simulations with 100,000 each on them in about 4 minutes. As far as I am concerned it's a big improvement from pencil and paper or manual entry into a spreadsheet.
Now I am asking myself, what can I do to improve this?
First topic would be (DorthyGale I hope you are still out there):
Is there some way to program a cell in the Excel spreadsheet to tell you what the largest number in a column or row is? And better yet could it take you to it or give it's coordinants? I need this to see what, where and how much my maximum bets are. I was able to do this manually by scrolling through the pages rather quickly but it took about 15 minutes on 100,000 round sheet.
By the way in case you are wondering about the results....
They were good but would still like to dig around on this some more to make sure I am not missing anything.
Never know what the next, 10th or 123rd trial on the simulator will show either.
Like I said in my earlier posts, I am no programmer and although I have alot to learn about Excel, it is the only resource I have (or that I know a little about) right now.
I am sure there is someone out there who could do the same thing that took me about 2 weeks of my spare time, in about 30 minutes, but I just ran 5 simulations with 100,000 each on them in about 4 minutes. As far as I am concerned it's a big improvement from pencil and paper or manual entry into a spreadsheet.
Now I am asking myself, what can I do to improve this?
First topic would be (DorthyGale I hope you are still out there):
Is there some way to program a cell in the Excel spreadsheet to tell you what the largest number in a column or row is? And better yet could it take you to it or give it's coordinants? I need this to see what, where and how much my maximum bets are. I was able to do this manually by scrolling through the pages rather quickly but it took about 15 minutes on 100,000 round sheet.
By the way in case you are wondering about the results....
They were good but would still like to dig around on this some more to make sure I am not missing anything.
Never know what the next, 10th or 123rd trial on the simulator will show either.
December 13th, 2010 at 7:53:44 AM
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Quote: mbailey1234Is there some way to program a cell in the Excel spreadsheet to tell you what the largest number in a column or row is?
=MAX(CELL RANGE)
=LOOKUP(LookUp_Value, CELL RANGE)
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
December 13th, 2010 at 8:05:10 AM
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Without seeming mean spirited, learn to use Excel help files. They are extensive and well written. And gives you a root in to learn how to make Excel sing for you.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 8:07:58 AM
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Please, be mean-spirited. This is RTFM level stuff.Quote: thecesspitWithout seeming mean spirited, learn to use Excel help files. They are extensive and well written. And gives you a root in to learn how to make Excel sing for you.
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
December 13th, 2010 at 8:09:51 AM
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Quote: mbailey1234Is there some way to program a cell in the Excel spreadsheet to tell you what the largest number in a column or row is? And better yet could it take you to it or give it's coordinants? I need this to see what, where and how much my maximum bets are.
=MATCH(MAX(your_array),your_array,0)
will give you the offset into the array where the largest value is.
Turn off automatic recalculations in the options menu to avoid having the sheet recalc every time you change it, then do manual recalc with F9.
But if you're looking to do big Monte Carlo simulations, Excel is the wrong way to go. You did 500k simulations in 4 minutes, but a custom software simulator can do that in under a second. Your best bet is to write code to generate whatever data you want to analyze, then dump it into Excel for analysis. But if you insist on using Excel, at least get a better RNG than the built-in one. There are several on the Internet that have much better statistical properties. Here's one:
http://www.mathwave.com/articles/random-numbers-excel-worksheets.html
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 13th, 2010 at 8:25:37 AM
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I could not agree more -- except I'd remove the word "big" from that quote. I'd use C, C++ or Java, but that's only becuase those are the languages I was raised using (in Kansas, we don't like to change very fast). The self taught might use VB or some kludgy mess like that. I'm sure the modern elite class would use Python or Ruby or C# or some other letter of the alphabet.Quote: MathExtremistBut if you're looking to do big Monte Carlo simulations, Excel is the wrong way to go.
--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
December 13th, 2010 at 8:35:21 AM
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Thanks for all the info eveyone. I probabily won't have much time to work on this until the weekend. I will keep you posted though.
I did find one stretch on the spreadsheet using the excel RNG that had 23 consecutive losses. That losing streak was included in a run that showed only 3 wins out of 38 rounds. That one was pretty hard on me. I guess you can't say that it could never happen but still that is pretty amazing. (I have to ask, "What are the odds of that?" LOL)
I still have some ideas to make this work a little smoother but they are going to have to wait a few more days until I have some time.
I have tried using the excel help feature and there is some good info in it but sometimes I don't always get to where I need to be by just using that.
Thanks again for all the help.
I did find one stretch on the spreadsheet using the excel RNG that had 23 consecutive losses. That losing streak was included in a run that showed only 3 wins out of 38 rounds. That one was pretty hard on me. I guess you can't say that it could never happen but still that is pretty amazing. (I have to ask, "What are the odds of that?" LOL)
I still have some ideas to make this work a little smoother but they are going to have to wait a few more days until I have some time.
I have tried using the excel help feature and there is some good info in it but sometimes I don't always get to where I need to be by just using that.
Thanks again for all the help.
December 13th, 2010 at 9:38:10 AM
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Quote: DorothyGaleI could not agree more -- except I'd remove the word "big" from that quote. I'd use C, C++ or Java, but that's only becuase those are the languages I was raised using (in Kansas, we don't like to change very fast). The self taught might use VB or some kludgy mess like that. I'm sure the modern elite class would use Python or Ruby or C# or some other letter of the alphabet.
--Dorothy
Groovy is a scriptable version of Java... (is what I've been hacking in).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 9:41:56 AM
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Quote: mbailey1234Thanks for all the info eveyone. I probabily won't have much time to work on this until the weekend. I will keep you posted though.
I did find one stretch on the spreadsheet using the excel RNG that had 23 consecutive losses. That losing streak was included in a run that showed only 3 wins out of 38 rounds. That one was pretty hard on me. I guess you can't say that it could never happen but still that is pretty amazing. (I have to ask, "What are the odds of that?" LOL)
Over 100,000 trials? Pretty damn high that you'll get some long streaks.
Quote:I have tried using the excel help feature and there is some good info in it but sometimes I don't always get to where I need to be by just using that.
Thanks again for all the help.
The only reasons I suggest it is that you'll learn the features you need and become much more flexible in using the tool... and if the betting system doesn't work out, at least you'll have a new tool to use.
Click the Fx symbol next to the cell entry box above the spreadsheet page. That allows you to search for a function. Entering "Maximum Value" returns the MAX() function as the first result.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
December 13th, 2010 at 4:19:21 PM
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Quote: Wizardfor proving a betting system won't work, almost any RNG should suffice.
This is very true. A computer RNG will fail every system known to man, whether the system is a failure or not. Never trust anything thats pseudo random.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
December 13th, 2010 at 5:30:16 PM
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Quote: EvenBobThis is very true. A computer RNG will fail every system known to man, whether the system is a failure or not. Never trust anything thats pseudo random.
It's highly likely that every slot machine or video poker machine you've ever played is using a software-based, pseudo-random number generator. No major gaming machine manufacturer uses a true random number source (a hardware-based RNG using something like thermal noise or radioactive decay), and I am unaware of a single gaming regulatory jurisdiction anywhere which prohibits pseudo-random number generators that otherwise meet the required statistical properties.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 13th, 2010 at 5:43:18 PM
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Quote: MathExtremist
But if you're looking to do big Monte Carlo simulations, Excel is the wrong way to go. You did 500k simulations in 4 minutes, but a custom software simulator can do that in under a second.
I always do my Excel sims at the 500k level or less using VB and it only takes less than 10 seconds depending on what else I am looking at.
You need to use good code.
If you only use Excel functions, ie: match, countif, if, etc. they really slow down the process and makes the file too large for any fast sims.
There are excellent RNG using VB out there, I have never had a problem with them.
From a few professors at Wabash College, here is an Excellent Excel workbook,(its FREE) with macros, that you can get ideas from. I do not know your level of use with Excel but these guys have done it right using Excel.
It is about Larry Bird shooting 90% freethrows, and a monte carlo sim about streaks and such.
http://www3.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/Chapters/Ch09MonteCarloSimulation/ExcelFiles/MonteCarlo.xls
The files can also be downloaded from their website:
http://www3.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/chap9.htm
When do we get to know what you are doing??
Good Luck!
December 13th, 2010 at 7:05:39 PM
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Help section says =MAX() is only good for 1 - 255 numbers? I need it to sort through 100,000. This keeps locking my spreadsheet up.
December 13th, 2010 at 7:21:02 PM
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Quote: Wizard
I used a Mersenne Twister.
This is what I love about this site. These little nuggets of info. Might be common knowledge for some on this site, but looking up the code was a new find for me.
December 13th, 2010 at 8:59:40 PM
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Quote: mbailey1234Help section says =MAX() is only good for 1 - 255 numbers? I need it to sort through 100,000. This keeps locking my spreadsheet up.
Two things:
1) Use this notation:
=MAX(a1:a100000)
rather than this notation:
=MAX(a1, a2, a3, a4, a5...)
2) Get a good book on learning Excel. Many of your questions are answerable by a basic course or book, and that'll be a lot faster than asking individual questions. Or,
2a) Get good at using Google, etc. for searching on how to use Excel functions.
Either way, as another poster wrote, you should really learn both Excel and Visual Basic. Otherwise you're going to be hamstrung with what you can accomplish.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
December 15th, 2010 at 6:52:39 PM
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Quote: DorothyGalePick one game and stick with it. Don't do too much, don't generalize. One thing only. For single-0 roulette, to generate a random number in the range 1 .. 37 is just:
Often times when there's nothing really there, the tendency is to do too much, and have the confusion substitute for knowledge.=INT(Rand()*37)+1
--Dorothy
"Pick one game and stick with it" >>> Yep, I agree. As I have said at least 200 times.
Ken
