Poker, Pandemics, & Politics

Good article on how people assess risk and make decisions:

Quote:

Poker players, along with folks like meteorologists, horse race handicappers and lawyers who work on a contingency basis are routinely rewarded or punished based on the odds. This gives them a rare visceral, experiential understanding of percentages and lets them short-circuit a cognitive effect called the “description-experience gap,” which leads people to underestimate risk based on their own personal experiences.

How Your Brain Tricks You Into Taking Risks During the Pandemic

It's not just bad leadership decisions by those in power, it's a genocide upon the American people by those in power. #RussiaRussiaRussia #JanBrady

Came off as a bit biased towards avoiding risk needlessly to me.

Quote: AZDuffman

Came off as a bit biased towards avoiding risk needlessly to me.

Can you clarify?

Quote: TumblingBones

Can you clarify?

Let's just not.
Thanks OP for the original article, but this looks like rapidly becoming a controversial squabble between those who embrace social distancing and those who vociferously don't. Take such squabbles to DT. Thanks.

Your probably right. I guess it was wishful thinking on my part to expect a reasoned discussion of how people make decisions when it comes to risk/reward.

I recently finished a book by Maria Konnikova, the research psychologist mentioned in this article, called "The Biggest Bluff" which covers her entry into the poker world and many of her insights about how people perceive risks. I highly recommend that book.

She mentions in that book that dieing from a fall in the shower/tub is far more likely than being killed by terrorists. Yet everyone saw the terrorist attack of 9/11 and most people do not know anyone who died from a fall in the bathroom - so people overvalue the risk of being killed by terrorists and yet aren't very mindful of the "death in the bathroom scenario. "

Similarly, in poker, if your 3oak loses a monster pot to an opponent's flush, there is a human tendency to fear another opponent making a flush.

Or, if a specific opponent shows pocket Aces on two consecutive hands and then makes a big bet on the next hand, its hard for even experienced poker players to be comfortable calling or raising that bet. Its just how the mind works -we're impressed by the danger that we've actually observed.

Quote: gordonm888

Or, if a specific opponent shows pocket Aces on two consecutive hands and then makes a big bet on the next hand, its hard for even experienced poker players to be comfortable calling or raising that bet.

I notice the opposite as people will think it's unlikely that person can have a monster hand 3 times in a row. Then of course there are people who believe in hot seats.

I finished the same book a couple weeks ago and found it both enjoyable and informative. I'm not a poker player so I appreciate feedback on her experience from anybody who is. One thing I found interesting was how often she said she fell into a bad mode of decision making (e.g., optimism bias, social influence) despite knowing better.

Quote: gordonm888

Its just how the mind works -we're impressed by the danger that we've actually observed.

Unfortunately the cable news folks have a business model based on showing videos of the most graphic disasters over and over. This explains why my wife is more afraid of flying than she is driving.