TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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Thanks for this post from:
LuckyPhow
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:30:40 AM permalink
Good article on how people assess risk and make decisions:
Quote:

Poker players, along with folks like meteorologists, horse race handicappers and lawyers who work on a contingency basis are routinely rewarded or punished based on the odds. This gives them a rare visceral, experiential understanding of percentages and lets them short-circuit a cognitive effect called the “description-experience gap,” which leads people to underestimate risk based on their own personal experiences.


How Your Brain Tricks You Into Taking Risks During the Pandemic
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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November 3rd, 2020 at 7:06:51 AM permalink
It's not just bad leadership decisions by those in power, it's a genocide upon the American people by those in power. #RussiaRussiaRussia #JanBrady
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:42:15 AM permalink
Came off as a bit biased towards avoiding risk needlessly to me.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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November 3rd, 2020 at 8:44:18 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Came off as a bit biased towards avoiding risk needlessly to me.


Can you clarify?
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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November 3rd, 2020 at 9:56:43 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

Can you clarify?

Let's just not.
Thanks OP for the original article, but this looks like rapidly becoming a controversial squabble between those who embrace social distancing and those who vociferously don't. Take such squabbles to DT. Thanks.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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November 3rd, 2020 at 10:19:08 AM permalink
Your probably right. I guess it was wishful thinking on my part to expect a reasoned discussion of how people make decisions when it comes to risk/reward.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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Thanks for this post from:
TumblingBones
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:17:56 PM permalink
I recently finished a book by Maria Konnikova, the research psychologist mentioned in this article, called "The Biggest Bluff" which covers her entry into the poker world and many of her insights about how people perceive risks. I highly recommend that book.

She mentions in that book that dieing from a fall in the shower/tub is far more likely than being killed by terrorists. Yet everyone saw the terrorist attack of 9/11 and most people do not know anyone who died from a fall in the bathroom - so people overvalue the risk of being killed by terrorists and yet aren't very mindful of the "death in the bathroom scenario. "

Similarly, in poker, if your 3oak loses a monster pot to an opponent's flush, there is a human tendency to fear another opponent making a flush.

Or, if a specific opponent shows pocket Aces on two consecutive hands and then makes a big bet on the next hand, its hard for even experienced poker players to be comfortable calling or raising that bet. Its just how the mind works -we're impressed by the danger that we've actually observed.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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November 3rd, 2020 at 2:28:57 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888



Or, if a specific opponent shows pocket Aces on two consecutive hands and then makes a big bet on the next hand, its hard for even experienced poker players to be comfortable calling or raising that bet.

I notice the opposite as people will think it's unlikely that person can have a monster hand 3 times in a row. Then of course there are people who believe in hot seats.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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November 3rd, 2020 at 2:34:44 PM permalink
I finished the same book a couple weeks ago and found it both enjoyable and informative. I'm not a poker player so I appreciate feedback on her experience from anybody who is. One thing I found interesting was how often she said she fell into a bad mode of decision making (e.g., optimism bias, social influence) despite knowing better.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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November 3rd, 2020 at 2:48:15 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Its just how the mind works -we're impressed by the danger that we've actually observed.


Unfortunately the cable news folks have a business model based on showing videos of the most graphic disasters over and over. This explains why my wife is more afraid of flying than she is driving.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.

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