Thread Rating:

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 11:06:44 AM permalink
I'm sure I am not the first to say this, but here is what I have to say on the matter.

As established in my last post, the 85% statistic refers to a study of 159 people who tested positive, 85% wore masks "often or always."

Then Trump said in his Town Hall, "Just the other day, they [the CDC] came out with a statement that 85% of the people that wore masks catch it [the coronavirus]."

See the video in my last post if you don't believe me.

That said, as a math major and former actuary, I can state unequivocally that this is a terrible misinterpretation. As I have said hundreds of times, correlation does not mean causation. Furthermore, it is ridiculous to claim that 85% of mask wearers "catch it." If 85% of Americans worse masks often or always and then 85% of them "catch it," then infection rates would be at least (85%)^2 = 72.55%. It would actually be higher from the cases of non-mask-wearers. As of this writing there are 8,617,022 cases (Source: CDC) and a US population of 328.2 million. That is 2.63% of the population. A far cry from 72.55%.

This is like taking the statistic that 74.2% of NBA players are African-American (source: statsta) and interpreting it as 74.2% of African Americans are NBA players.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Torghatten
Torghatten
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 117
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
October 26th, 2020 at 11:18:04 AM permalink
I dont remember what disease, but some years ago some anti-vaccers argued that a large majority of people infected was vaccinated, and therefore the vaccine caused the infection.

They did not mention that a huge majority got the vaccine or that they never are 100% effective.
billryan
billryan 
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 12:38:40 PM permalink
You can fool some of the people all the time......
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
radicalwin
radicalwin
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 4
Joined: Oct 26, 2020
October 26th, 2020 at 12:45:30 PM permalink
It is very clear he simply got it flipped around. Study showed 85% of infected were wearing masks. That is a significant point, but Trump is not very bright and he is older. So, he tends to get things flipped around a bit.

Why don't we also analyze the false comparison the the Spanish Flu. The Spanish Flu was statistically far worse.

Why we are doing math analysis why don't we examine the false claim that Biden's tax plan will not raise taxes on those making less than 400k a year.
radicalwin
radicalwin
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 4
Joined: Oct 26, 2020
October 26th, 2020 at 12:52:53 PM permalink
We also know that the virus is too small to be effectively captured by any mask being used by the public. So, physics and math are very clear. Masks are not as effective as many would like to think. I would argue things like quarantining the at risk and elderly would be much more mathematically effective.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12166
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
Thanked by
rawtuff
October 26th, 2020 at 1:13:36 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser


Masks are worthless unless you're wearing an N95 or a KN95 mask. Cloth and surgical masks are about as effective as using a screen door to block water.


Maybe if I post a description written for children from an epidemiologist from Boston’s Children’s Hospital the above nonsense will stop being repeated.

Quote:

When infected individuals talk, cough, or sing, they generate large, wet droplets containing the virus that causes COVID-19. If you’re within 6 feet of someone who is infected, those droplets can land on your eyes, nose, or mouth and infect you, too. And if you’re very close physically to someone who is infected, you can potentially inhale some of the droplets as well.

The main benefit of wearing a mask is preventing spread of the virus. If you are infected yourself and wear a mask, the mask largely blocks those droplets from coming in contact with other people when you talk or cough.

There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13884
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 1:35:23 PM permalink
Quote: radicalwin

It is very clear he simply got it flipped around. Study showed 85% of infected were wearing masks. That is a significant point, but Trump is not very bright and he is older. So, he tends to get things flipped around a bit.



I did not hear him flip it around. I did see people on here flip it around.

I keep giggling to myself how the maskers on here are going crazy because they cannot seem to handle a study that did not show masks to be a great thing. Their world is almost falling apart. When it was some kind of a quick and limited study on hydroxychloroquine they were shouting from the rooftops. Now they are attacking a study?
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
billryan
billryan 
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 16282
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
rsactuary
October 26th, 2020 at 1:50:15 PM permalink
I don't see anyone attacking the study. What I do see is people like you either misunderstanding it or using it to make claims that the study simply doesn't support.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13884
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 1:57:47 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I don't see anyone attacking the study. What I do see is people like you either misunderstanding it or using it to make claims that the study simply doesn't support.



Have you not been reading the thread? It had to be opened so the study could be attacked. Yes, someone somewhere flipped the wording (not me) but even after that the maskers have gone after it. All because it showed that people wearing masks got sick.

Which is what a minority of us here suggested from the beginning.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12166
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 26th, 2020 at 2:03:22 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

I did not hear him flip it around. I did see people on here flip it around.

I keep giggling to myself how the maskers on here are going crazy because they cannot seem to handle a study that did not show masks to be a great thing. Their world is almost falling apart. When it was some kind of a quick and limited study on hydroxychloroquine they were shouting from the rooftops. Now they are attacking a study?



I'm not attacking the study. But the more a study has to rely on survey information, rather than actual, or even better yet, controlled observation, the more likely it will have limited value.

I certainly would give the controlled double blind studies showing hydroxychloroquine ineffective more credence.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13884
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 2:07:53 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I'm not attacking the study. But the more a study has to rely on survey information, rather than actual, or even better yet, controlled observation, the more likely it will have limited value.

I certainly would give the controlled double blind studies showing hydroxychloroquine ineffective more credence.



But you cannot really do that in this case. At the least you would have to force one group not to wear masks. It is not a study of a new drug, just about mask habits.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Keyser
Keyser
  • Threads: 35
  • Posts: 2106
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
October 26th, 2020 at 2:26:00 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Quote: Keyser

Masks are worthless unless you're wearing an N95 or a KN95 mask. Cloth and surgical masks are about as effective as using a screen door to block water.


Maybe if I post a description written for children from an epidemiologist from Boston’s Children’s Hospital the above nonsense will stop being repeated.

Quote:
When infected individuals talk, cough, or sing, they generate large, wet droplets containing the virus that causes COVID-19. If you’re within 6 feet of someone who is infected, those droplets can land on your eyes, nose, or mouth and infect you, too. And if you’re very close physically to someone who is infected, you can potentially inhale some of the droplets as well.

The main benefit of wearing a mask is preventing spread of the virus. If you are infected yourself and wear a mask, the mask largely blocks those droplets from coming in contact with other people when you talk or cough.



Rxwine,

Perhaps I should quote what virologists and even Dr. Fauci said about it early on for you. Oh, and don't worry I'll rewrite some of it using smaller words and shorter sentences so that you can comprehend it, or perhaps have an adult read it to you. ;)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 26th, 2020 at 5:14:05 PM permalink
Quote: radicalwin

Why we are doing math analysis why don't we examine the false claim that Biden's tax plan will not raise taxes on those making less than 400k a year.



Warning issued for making a political statement. I don't mind a mathematical look at tax proposals, but just throwing out a political opinion is against forum rules.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
radicalwin
radicalwin
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 4
Joined: Oct 26, 2020
October 26th, 2020 at 5:22:13 PM permalink
This whole thread is full of political opinions.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12166
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 26th, 2020 at 5:44:31 PM permalink
The most reliable survey studies are usually designed so the intention is disguised. They tell you they are studying one thing, while they are actually recording some other reaction you're not made aware of. I say that, so when people see survey information, they don't automatically dismiss it without looking closer.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Tanko
Tanko
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 1195
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
October 27th, 2020 at 6:45:51 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Going back to the positive table, if you add the group of case patients, adding the groups who often or always wore masks, there are 130 of them. Out of 153 who tested positive, that is 130/153 = 85% of them.

The same statistic, for those who didn't test positive, is (23+118)/159 = 141/159 = 89%.

Does anyone dispute that this is the 85% in question?



No, but using the W.H.O. estimate that 10% of the world population has been infected, the uninfected control group should have been nine times larger. Everything else remaining the same, a 9 to 1 ratio would show only 8.5% of the total number of subjects who always or often wore a mask fourteen days before the onset, became infected.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 27th, 2020 at 12:58:06 PM permalink
Quote: Tanko

No, but using the W.H.O. estimate that 10% of the world population has been infected, the uninfected control group should have been nine times larger. Everything else remaining the same, a 9 to 1 ratio would show only 8.5% of the total number of subjects who always or often wore a mask fourteen days before the onset, became infected.



Nobody is talking about a blended average for how often positive cases wore masks.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
terapined
terapined
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 6087
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
October 28th, 2020 at 10:32:11 AM permalink
Texas overtakes California in virus cases
California 915,000
Texas 918,000
I'm just outside El Paso
Hospitals filled
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13884
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
radicalwin
October 28th, 2020 at 10:51:44 AM permalink
Quote: radicalwin

This whole thread is full of political opinions.



This thread was started as a political opinion. How it has stayed open amazes me.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1491
  • Posts: 26435
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
October 28th, 2020 at 11:25:39 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

This thread was started as a political opinion. How it has stayed open amazes me.



It is supposed to be a discussion on statistics, which is allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12166
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
October 28th, 2020 at 12:06:09 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

This thread was started as a political opinion. How it has stayed open amazes me.



Which sentence in the first post of the thread are you calling political?
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Lando
Lando
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 54
Joined: Aug 14, 2014
October 28th, 2020 at 12:17:29 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

This thread was started as a political opinion. How it has stayed open amazes me.



At least it allowed me to see the cross posters in the presidential betting thread. Now I know for sure who is a partisan and why they write what they write.

#Winning.
rawtuff
rawtuff
  • Threads: 2
  • Posts: 325
Joined: Mar 15, 2013
Thanked by
AxelWolf
October 30th, 2020 at 2:24:27 AM permalink
People trying to downplay c-19 spread, disease and deaths and mocking personal protective equipment in a nutshell:

"I see people wearing winter coats and hats. What a bunch of sheep! LOL! I did my own research and found out that only 1500 people die from hypothermia in the US per year.
That's only 0.0005% of the population. They live in fear of something that 99.9995% of people won't die from.
It get's better, a lot of the people who died from hypothermia were wearing coats and hats, and they still died! Coats don't work!"
Tits are good, but the most important thing is the soul.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
  • Threads: 240
  • Posts: 13884
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
Thanked by
SanchoPanza
October 30th, 2020 at 3:25:48 AM permalink
Quote: rawtuff

People trying to downplay c-19 spread, disease and deaths and mocking personal protective equipment in a nutshell:

"I see people wearing winter coats and hats. What a bunch of sheep! LOL! I did my own research and found out that only 1500 people die from hypothermia in the US per year.
That's only 0.0005% of the population. They live in fear of something that 99.9995% of people won't die from.
It get's better, a lot of the people who died from hypothermia were wearing coats and hats, and they still died! Coats don't work!"



I wear a coat for comfort, not out of fear of hypothermia. Often I will not wear one if I am outside for just short hops. I sometimes keep one in my car for an emergency but do not wear one from house to car and car to store. Once at work a woman asked "where is your coat?!" I explained I park in an underground garage at work and a garage at home so I leave it in the car instead of having it at my desk at work.

Masks are not comfortable so I wear one only when I am absolutely forced to do so. If I worked in a high risk area like a hospital maybe I would see the need.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
  • Threads: 111
  • Posts: 4738
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
October 30th, 2020 at 3:33:55 AM permalink
Jury Duty, Judges, and Law & Order will never be the same.
  • Jump to: