Thread Rating:

unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2109
October 21st, 2020 at 11:59:18 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Can someone please explain to me, in as few words as possible, what this 85% statistic is saying? Just put it in a sentence. I don't need an interpretation.

Math puzzle time!

Let's say 94.5% of the population wear masks. The probability a mask-wearer gets the CV is 1%. The probability a non-mask-wearer gets the CV is 3%. A person positive with CV is chosen at random. What is the probability he was a mask-wearer?



I see what you did there. I get 85.1351%.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 2601
October 21st, 2020 at 12:06:06 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

For the record, I'm also not a big fan of communism, as it's basically a religion since it can't be disconfirmed, which reminds me a religion making its way through the U.S. right now. But I am, from a social perspective, somewhat left of Marx, so what I suggest is "Sir Comrade Dietz," so as to assign proper respect and all.

Left of Marx? Wow comrade, just wow!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 5592
Thanks for this post from:
rsactuary
October 21st, 2020 at 1:51:56 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser


Fortunately we're doing much better than most of Europe and in locations where they've had the most draconian lock downs thanks to great leadership.


Why compare the US to the worst and say we are ok
Why not compare the USA to countries that have had the best response, essentially defeated the virus and are not depending on the fantasy vaccine?
I have relatives in Taiwan. I am following this virus very closely where I have relatives
Taiwan 7 deaths
We should be looking at Taiwan and saving lives instead giving an ok to 225,000 dead

Warp speed??????????
This is real life and people are dying today. It's not a star trek episode. I really doubt we will have a vaccine. To bank on just that just sentences more people to death
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1355
  • Posts: 22466
October 21st, 2020 at 2:07:07 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The one as I mentioned was one Trump quoted but I forget when.

85% of people catching the virus were regular mask wearers.

Another way, if 100 people tested positive, 85% wore masks regular.



Thank you. By itself, this statement does tell us much about masks. It would be helpful to know the percentage of people who wear masks as well, to compare this 85% against something. I say this not to make a political statement, but more of a statistical one.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1355
  • Posts: 22466
October 21st, 2020 at 2:08:06 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I see what you did there. I get 85.1351%.



Correct!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1355
  • Posts: 22466
October 21st, 2020 at 2:09:39 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Left of Marx? Wow comrade, just wow!



Quote: redietz

For the record, I'm also not a big fan of communism, as it's basically a religion since it can't be disconfirmed, which reminds me a religion making its way through the U.S. right now. But I am, from a social perspective, somewhat left of Marx, so what I suggest is "Sir Comrade Dietz," so as to assign proper respect and all.



Warning given to both of you for making political statements. Let's keep it mathematical.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1355
  • Posts: 22466
Thanks for this post from:
RogerKint
October 21st, 2020 at 2:11:52 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

We should be looking at Taiwan and saving lives instead giving an ok to 225,000 dead



This, too, is getting too political. Warning issued.

I am fine with discussion about the virus, but it should be statistical in nature or how it directly affects casinos.
Last edited by: Wizard on Oct 26, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
  • Threads: 244
  • Posts: 7486
October 21st, 2020 at 2:38:01 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Can someone please explain to me, in as few words as possible, what this 85% statistic is saying? Just put it in a sentence. I don't need an interpretation.

Math puzzle time!

Let's say 94.5% of the population wear masks. The probability a mask-wearer gets the CV is 1%. The probability a non-mask-wearer gets the CV is 3%. A person positive with CV is chosen at random. What is the probability he was a mask-wearer?



85% of people who wore masks and removed them in public dining areas/drinking establishments caught covid (that participated in the study)

That was the findings of the study.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 2109
October 21st, 2020 at 2:47:45 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: Wizard

Can someone please explain to me, in as few words as possible, what this 85% statistic is saying? Just put it in a sentence. I don't need an interpretation.

Math puzzle time!

Let's say 94.5% of the population wear masks. The probability a mask-wearer gets the CV is 1%. The probability a non-mask-wearer gets the CV is 3%. A person positive with CV is chosen at random. What is the probability he was a mask-wearer?



85% of people who wore masks and removed them in public dining areas/drinking establishments caught covid (that participated in the study)

That was the findings of the study.



Thatís incorrect. You mixed up the percentage in the same way the OP did.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 175
  • Posts: 9985
October 21st, 2020 at 3:21:17 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: Wizard

Can someone please explain to me, in as few words as possible, what this 85% statistic is saying? Just put it in a sentence. I don't need an interpretation.

Math puzzle time!

Let's say 94.5% of the population wear masks. The probability a mask-wearer gets the CV is 1%. The probability a non-mask-wearer gets the CV is 3%. A person positive with CV is chosen at random. What is the probability he was a mask-wearer?



85% of people who wore masks and removed them in public dining areas/drinking establishments caught covid (that participated in the study)

That was the findings of the study.



The study says that of the people who caught covid, 85% of them wore masks
It does not say that 85% of the people who wore mask caught covid.

We have a set of people. The ones who caught covid are a subset. The ones who caught covid and wore mask are a subset of that subset.
The biggest subset is the people who didn't catch covid. Without looking at the study, it would seem obvious that the biggest group of people who ate were not infected, mask or no mask.

  • Jump to: