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5 votes (35.71%)
9 votes (64.28%)

14 members have voted

Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:00:51 PM permalink
Hi. My wife has a friend who's son is going to Vegas. He'll arrive in a few days and check in on his 21st birthday. He's staying at the Linq (probably to take his g/f on the feris wheel) and told me in passing about his system to beat the roulette wheel. I told him casually that no such thing exists but he said he's going to try it anyway.

Would you sit him down and have a real discussion or let him find out for himself? I don't think that we'd be dealing with a significant amount of money. Of course, the system might work if he get's lucky so who knows.
The best things in life are not free.
TomG
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:07:17 PM permalink
I would give him $20 and tell him we'll split whatever profits he makes off it
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:10:47 PM permalink
Recommend that he read the Wizard's article on the game and related "systems". You can lead a horse to water, but you can't teach him to fish...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
darkoz
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:35:22 PM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

Hi. My wife has a friend who's son is going to Vegas. He'll arrive in a few days and check in on his 21st birthday. He's staying at the Linq (probably to take his g/f on the feris wheel) and told me in passing about his system to beat the roulette wheel. I told him casually that no such thing exists but he said he's going to try it anyway.

Would you sit him down and have a real discussion or let him find out for himself? I don't think that we'd be dealing with a significant amount of money. Of course, the system might work if he get's lucky so who knows.



Most people wont listen.

Nonetheless you should talk to him anyway.

At least he wont be able to say he had no idea or question why you didnt warn him
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ThatDonGuy
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:37:26 PM permalink
The problem with not saying anything is, what happens if his system "works" the first time?

My mother was told by somebody that you should always play the slot machines near the entrances as they are set to pay off more so that people walking by see a lot of winners. You guessed it; she hit a jackpot on one, and now try convincing her - or the person who gave her the advice - that it's not true.
michael99000
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tringlomanersactuary
June 7th, 2019 at 2:03:10 PM permalink
My advice is to have EvenBob speak to him. Not only can he talk the kid out of trying that system, he can also provide him with one that works.
FleaStiff
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June 7th, 2019 at 2:10:05 PM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

Would you sit him down and have a real discussion . . . . s.

I would give him one of those simple pamphlets and a CURRENT listing of the lectures available in nearby casinos. Or perhaps link to Easy.Vegas for Michael Bluejay's ultra short summary. Its not a lecture from you and its not criticism from you.
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 19, 2019
AZDuffman
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June 7th, 2019 at 2:17:33 PM permalink
He will have to learn for himself. When I deal roulette at the parties now I just let people say whatever they want about it. Sometimes, depends on a few factors, at the end I will tell the m the "dirty little secret" that none of it matters, all bets have the same house edge.

Some believe, some do not.

If so many dealers don't get it, no chance someone going to play for the first time will listen.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
ChumpChange
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June 7th, 2019 at 4:08:44 PM permalink
I saw a woman putting down like 15 bets a spin that favored certain numbers so if they hit she'd get paid multiples on that number. She turned $40 into over $300 on video roulette in a couple hours. This video roulette machine does tend to repeat numbers within 5 spins, but it's kind of a mystery how to chase that kind of luck.
RS
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RigondeauxOnceDearJoeman
June 7th, 2019 at 4:23:18 PM permalink
The problem isn't what would happen if he loses.....the problem starts if he actually wins.
DJTeddyBear
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June 7th, 2019 at 5:11:30 PM permalink
Chances are his secret system is the Martingale, or a version of it.


So, without asking for details, and whether you’ve ever done it or not, tell him your experience with a “really cool system” you came up with.

Then briefly explain the Martingale (without the name), and how it worked at first for a small profit, and then the big consecutive loss when you ran out of money or hit the table limit.

Then tell him you did research and found out that this really cool system is so common that it has a name and countless articles about why it doesn’t work.

Systems suck kid....
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
heatmap
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beachbumbabs
June 7th, 2019 at 5:37:43 PM permalink
i say have someone say they are a psychic and sit down and say they believe his system was going to work based on a vision they had
Romes
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beachbumbabsJohnnyQ
June 7th, 2019 at 10:10:05 PM permalink
If it's someone you actually care about on any level... Sit down and show him the math of the game and why it's not beatable. Then, have him describe his system to you, and show him using simple math how he has a negative expectation. Thus, his system will without a doubt mathematically lose in the long run. Then tell him if he wants to do it for fun, that's fine, as with variance on any 1 given night he might actually win, but make sure he knows that if he does win it's just short term luck and in the long run he mathematically can't win.

Also, his system might be something that is an actual winner, in which case you get to preview and prove it mathematically, then make the millions =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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June 8th, 2019 at 6:51:28 AM permalink
Maybe the best approach is to make sure he understands that there are single zero wheels, and that playing double (or triple) zero is for suckers. That may open up a conversation about the math, and if he does play, the house edge on single zero isn’t the worst bet in the joint.

Do warn him about 6:5 blackjack too. Forget global warming, we owe it to the next generation to keep 3:2 alive.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Boz
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June 8th, 2019 at 7:29:05 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

. Or perhaps link to Vegas Click for Michael Bluejay's ultra short summary. Its not a lecture from you and its not criticism from you.



Great idea, the poor kid will cancel his trip because Airplanes are bad and dedicate his life to telling everyone that they are killing the planet while riding a bicycle naked.

Problem solved!
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888
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June 8th, 2019 at 7:54:37 AM permalink
Let him go. Maybe, repeat your main messages once more, and tell him not to bring more money than he can afford to lose. But he has already heard what you said and he will remember it

IMO, he wants to try his hand at gambling. He wants to see if he will be lucky.

We know that his expectation (EV) will be the same as if he wasn't using a system. If he had told you that he wants to try his hand at roulette (with no mention of a system) like so many millions of gamblers, would it be a big problem?

People learn in different ways. Some of us learn via math or by reading books and websites like WOO. But others learn by doing, by watching others do - via experiences.

You've told him the truth about betting systems. You have offered him wisdom. You can't force it without jeopardizing your relationship with him.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DJTeddyBear
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June 8th, 2019 at 8:20:27 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Forget global warming.
We owe it to the next generation to keep 3:2 alive.

Post of the week! 😁
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
FleaStiff
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June 8th, 2019 at 9:14:06 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Great idea, the poor kid will cancel his trip because Airplanes are bad and dedicate his life to telling everyone that they are killing the planet while riding a bicycle naked

Well, I'd rather it was the girlfriend who was riding the bicycle naked but that is why I said the ultra short description of roulette not the part about carbon emissions or vegetarianism.
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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June 10th, 2019 at 2:46:04 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Chances are his secret system is the Martingale, or a version of it.


So, without asking for details, and whether you’ve ever done it or not, tell him your experience with a “really cool system” you came up with.

Then briefly explain the Martingale (without the name), and how it worked at first for a small profit, and then the big consecutive loss when you ran out of money or hit the table limit.


Systems suck kid....



It turns out that he found and used our old friend Mr. Martingdale. It worked out well, as it usually does, and he came home a winner. That one horrid bad streak didn't find him- this time.

Personally, I like the way that I play Roulette (rarely) much better.
The best things in life are not free.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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June 10th, 2019 at 6:30:36 PM permalink
Why am I not shocked. 🙄
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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June 10th, 2019 at 6:45:47 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Why am I not shocked. 🙄



That he used Martingdale, or that I sit down for a spin now and then?
The best things in life are not free.
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