Risk of Ruin Calculator
Thread Rating:
Poll
 | 9 votes (64.28%) | ||
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| | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
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| | 6 votes (42.85%) | ||
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| | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
| | 2 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
| | 3 votes (21.42%) |
14 members have voted
March 25th, 2019 at 1:34:44 PM
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One of the most frequent questions I get privately is on the risk of ruin for various situations. Unless there is an enormous bankroll, such questions are best answered by random simulation or a Markov chain. However, both these are rather time consuming and go beyond what I care to do as a free friendly favor. Keep in mind I have the whole world asking me gambling questions, so my bandwidth is only so wide.
That said, I threw together a basic Risk of Ruin Calculator. It uses a formula that estimates said value, that can be found at Wikipedia. I want to strongly emphasize that this calculator produces an estimate only! So, if it produces a value of 7%, and the truly value is 5%, for a typical bankroll size, please don't bite my head off.
All those caveats out of the way, what do you think? As always, I welcome all comments, good and bad.
The question for the poll is which statements do you agree with? (multiple votes allowed)
That said, I threw together a basic Risk of Ruin Calculator. It uses a formula that estimates said value, that can be found at Wikipedia. I want to strongly emphasize that this calculator produces an estimate only! So, if it produces a value of 7%, and the truly value is 5%, for a typical bankroll size, please don't bite my head off.
All those caveats out of the way, what do you think? As always, I welcome all comments, good and bad.
The question for the poll is which statements do you agree with? (multiple votes allowed)
"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes
March 25th, 2019 at 1:41:46 PM
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Where do I find the information to plug in the variables for any given game?
For example, if I wanted the ROR for Tiles, how do I figure out the player advantage and standard deviation?
For example, if I wanted the ROR for Tiles, how do I figure out the player advantage and standard deviation?
March 25th, 2019 at 2:10:54 PM
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Quote: TigerWuFor example, if I wanted the ROR for Tiles, how do I figure out the player advantage and standard deviation?
That information is on Wizard of Odds.
"My life is spent in one long effort to escape from the commonplace of existence. These little problems help me to do so." -- Sherlock Holmes
March 25th, 2019 at 2:31:29 PM
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Quote: WizardThat information is on Wizard of Odds.
Okay, I looked on the site and found the standard deviation of 0.75 for Pai Gow, and a player return of -0.000844 using basic strategy.
But when I plug those numbers in, I get "infinity" for the ROR. When I take away the negative sign for the player return, I get "0.00000."
Am I using the right numbers?
March 25th, 2019 at 3:41:00 PM
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This calculator is great for a quick estimate. However, maybe it's just me but searching google/WOO sometimes it's tough to find the Variance/SD of different games.
Is there any place on WOO or that anyone else knows about that lists all of the major casino table games/VP/etc and their associated Variance/SD's? I know the Wiz has a page on VP with their variances, which is GREAT, but it would be SUPER helpful to have table games on a list as well =P. Am I bad with searching? I hope =D.
Is there any place on WOO or that anyone else knows about that lists all of the major casino table games/VP/etc and their associated Variance/SD's? I know the Wiz has a page on VP with their variances, which is GREAT, but it would be SUPER helpful to have table games on a list as well =P. Am I bad with searching? I hope =D.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 25th, 2019 at 5:45:42 PM
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Seems like a calculator appendix would be useful there. List those figures for all well-known table games.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
March 25th, 2019 at 6:32:22 PM
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Quote: RomesThis calculator is great for a quick estimate. However, maybe it's just me but searching google/WOO sometimes it's tough to find the Variance/SD of different games.
Is there any place on WOO or that anyone else knows about that lists all of the major casino table games/VP/etc and their associated Variance/SD's? I know the Wiz has a page on VP with their variances, which is GREAT, but it would be SUPER helpful to have table games on a list as well =P. Am I bad with searching? I hope =D.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/ .
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
March 25th, 2019 at 6:44:24 PM
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Quote: TigerWuOkay, I looked on the site and found the standard deviation of 0.75 for Pai Gow, and a player return of -0.000844 using basic strategy.
But when I plug those numbers in, I get "infinity" for the ROR. When I take away the negative sign for the player return, I get "0.00000."
Am I using the right numbers?
Any negative EV game has a 100% risk of ruin.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
March 25th, 2019 at 8:27:53 PM
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Quote: unJonAny negative EV game has a 100% risk of ruin.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
March 25th, 2019 at 9:33:35 PM
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Not enough precision in the last answer. Make it 36.7879% and I'm voting.
You should make a thing to explain how to do a markov chain.
You should make a thing to explain how to do a markov chain.
March 26th, 2019 at 3:58:07 AM
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I wish I understood variance and RoR more. I have no idea what any of those numbers actually mean
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
March 26th, 2019 at 8:07:17 AM
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Quote: unJonAny negative EV game has a 100% risk of ruin.
LOL then what's the point of this calculator if every game in the casino has a 100% ROR except card counting and video poker with perfect strategy on limited games?
I thought the REAL reason for determining ROR is to know how long your bankroll will last at any given wager amount... I.e., if you sit down at a $5 blackjack table with $5, your ROR is like 99.9% over a certain amount of time. But if you sit down at that same table with $1000, your ROR would be like 0.001% over that same length of time. (Just making up numbers to illustrate my point.)
