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TomG
TomG
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June 1st, 2018 at 3:11:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was in high school in the early 80's. When predictions for the near future was discussed, everybody seemed to agree on the following two:

1. Electricity would be free or nearly free.
2. Automation would reduce labor needs by 50% or so. In other words, the average worker would work about 20 hours a week.



When America first became a country, over 70% of the population were farmers. It's now only about 1%. That doesn't mean 70% of us no longer needed to help run the countries workforce, it means we replaced 1700s jobs with 20th and 21st century jobs. It is possible that the labor needs to run 1980s America has dropped by that much, but simply been replaced by new demands. A payment to all citizens shouldn't be done to make up for how our jobs are changing, it should be done to help accelerate how our jobs are changing.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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June 1st, 2018 at 3:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Not sure how many predictions are wrong, but plenty are wrong on the timeline. Our space exploration predictions have been slow to be realized, but there is still progress. Some things will never be realized, but others may just have a different implementation.


In 1996 I was on a DoD panel tasked to predict where technologies relevant to the military would be in 20 years. A couple of years ago on the 20th anniversary of the study I dug out a copy of the report to check how we did. I would score it maybe a 5 on a 1 to 10 scale but I'm not the most objective grader in this case :)

Quote: Wizard

So forgive me if I'm skeptical about they predictions we'll be all automated out of jobs soon. Any hotel/casino manager in Vegas will sing the blues that it is hard to fill menial labor jobs. A casino manager I knew in Laughlin said the only condition needed to work at his property was a heartbeat. There is a shortage of millions of jobs in health care. Most public schools have a shortage of teachers. My prediction is there will more demand than supply of labor for the next 50 years.


You may be right but I think you will agree that automation shifts the job market. One type of job goes away and another (hopefully) appears. Lots of economists and pundits have been saying this and lots of politicians have been counting on this. The problem is that there are many sources of "friction" that prevent people from changing jobs. The obvious one is lack of skill but non-portability of health care is also a major factor. Ditto inability to change location due to family (e.g. a spouse with a job). One result is that even tho the unemployment rate is low, the participation rate has been steadily dropping since 2000. The only other post-war drop was between 1956 and 1965 and that was much smaller (~ 1.5% vs 5%).

The fact that this drop started in 2000 is to me a major point. Both Wiz and AZ have pointed out that we've been hearing since the 1980s (at least) about the robots coming to take our jobs. The 1980s and 1990s are referred to in the history of AI as the "AI Winter". Wikipedia describes it as "a chain reaction that begins with pessimism in the AI community, followed by pessimism in the press, followed by a severe cutback in funding, followed by the end of serious research." In 2005 however the [NYT wrote about the end of the AI winter. Ever since, buckets of money have been thrown at AI researchers and projects. There has been orders of magnitude improvements in the capability of AI/ML systems in the last 20 years and nobody is expecting it to slow down.

We all know that correlation is not causation. Nevertheless consider the following chart:


I don't think we are faced with a black-or-white situation where technology erases all jobs but I do think it is drastically changing society. UBI has been proposed as one way to reduce the impact.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 1st, 2018 at 4:03:38 PM permalink
The bottle machine ended child labor in this country, not laws.

Farm labor? It took fifty hours of labor a YEAR to bring in an acre of corn which provided food, liquor, currency, torches and pipes.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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June 1st, 2018 at 4:59:38 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Sure, as LV is the home of free buffets and the like. Let's see you do it in LA or most urban areas.

Free buffets and such are not a factor in my thinking, I think it all comes down to how much rental rates are.

I have a feeling one could find a Studio in LA for under 900.

And no one said if you wanted to not work and just live free you had to live in an expensive area. They can move there ass to Toledo, Ohio. Bullhead City, AZ or whatver.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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June 1st, 2018 at 5:19:29 PM permalink
I doubt you could find a studio apartment for $900 or cheaper in LA (Los Angeles). My friend had a studio apartment in a not-great area of San Diego for something like $1600/mo.

Iím still not seeing why we should provide for someone entirely, like $1500/mo for doing nothing. I donít want to live somewhere where people are striving just to do nothing and to get by like that. Sounds like a miserable environment. At least make it so people who are making below $X/month get something like $300/mo. But giving people $1500/month for doing nothing? I canít even wrap my head around it. Sorry, but I canít.


I still say ó cut welfare and all that s*** by 95%. Give everyone on it 6 months notice and in 6 months itís gone. You can reapply, but unless youíre either mentally retarded, have severe disabilities, or something like that, donít expect it.

For those without a job, they can apply for welfare/etc. and get UP TO 2 months of it ó afterwords, itís gone. This would serve for the type of people who get laid off out of nowhere who were making very little money and barely getting by, without any savings since they canít afford to save. A safety net, as they say.

The government shouldnít be ďprovidingĒ for the citizens. The government should be responsible for foreign affairs, justice/jail/prison, generic regulations, the type of stuff the private sector canít really take care of (like fire department, police, etc.), and other stuff the actual government should be doing. Why isnít social security taken care of by the private sector? Mail?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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June 1st, 2018 at 5:32:49 PM permalink
Social Security is paid into by everybody. It's not tax distribution, it's a deferred annuity, paid in advance.

Mail is in the US Constitution as a government duty to its people. However, it's not funded with tax dollars. It's a quasi-corporation that answers to the US Government, but it pays for itself.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 1st, 2018 at 5:36:15 PM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

One type of job goes away and another (hopefully) appears.



I absolutely agree with that. The market basket of goods and services we all consume is always changing and with that the types of jobs in the economy.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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June 1st, 2018 at 5:56:14 PM permalink
Quote: RS



Iím still not seeing why we should provide for someone entirely, like $1500/mo for doing nothing. I donít want to live somewhere where people are striving just to do nothing and to get by like that. Sounds like a miserable environment. At least make it so people who are making below $X/month get something like $300/mo. But giving people $1500/month for doing nothing? I canít even wrap my head around it. Sorry, but I canít.

But just imagine what YOU and other motivated people could do with an extra guaranteed $1500 free a month.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
RS
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June 1st, 2018 at 6:12:30 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

But just imagine what YOU and other motivated people could do with an extra guaranteed $1500 free a month.


Itíd hurt me because I wouldnít be getting that $1500. Itíd cost me $1600 or $1700 or $2000 a month just to get that $1500 back. So Iíd be shilling out money so my neighbor or whoever can smoke weed on his couch all day long or whatever some people aspire to do.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 1st, 2018 at 6:44:16 PM permalink
The Postal Service has long viewed its customers as the bulk mailers and actually ordered post offices to remove clocks from the lobby area so the public would not get angry at delays (it did not order ending the delays).

Social Security has many components but it was supposed to be for those in NEED. A safety net, not an entitlement simply because people had paid into the system.
It used to be possible to go to the local Seminole casino and figure out who had just received a check on the fourth day of the month, then the government started staggering the dates they made the deposits.

Locally some assistance recipients were ordered to apply for employment in order to continue receiving benefits. They wanted to apply to Lowe's via an online application as they were instructed to do but none of them had an email address and no one was there to help them get one. They simply could not understand the Hotmail directtions for a free account. Do you think Lowe's will hire them? Do you think they will make good employees? Do you think anyone gained anything from that futility?

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