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troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:26:38 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

And yet California has one of the highest populations of illegal immigration of low skilled workers in the country...they come here with very little resources and somehow can afford to live in one of the highest cost states in the nation...I wonder how that is possible?



They live 15 people in a single wide trailer
Wizard
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Wizard
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:34:09 PM permalink
I was in high school in the early 80's. When predictions for the near future was discussed, everybody seemed to agree on the following two:

1. Electricity would be free or nearly free.
2. Automation would reduce labor needs by 50% or so. In other words, the average worker would work about 20 hours a week.

So forgive me if I'm skeptical about they predictions we'll be all automated out of jobs soon. Any hotel/casino manager in Vegas will sing the blues that it is hard to fill menial labor jobs. A casino manager I knew in Laughlin said the only condition needed to work at his property was a heartbeat. There is a shortage of millions of jobs in health care. Most public schools have a shortage of teachers. My prediction is there will more demand than supply of labor for the next 50 years.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:39:54 PM permalink
Many cities have been studied and its often the rent and cost of living increases from gentrification that chase the working poor away to more outlying areas and cause a good deal of school system pretense with names on mailboxes but the parent no longer living there. Some mothers resort to living in a van but keeping their kids in a decent school system because the suburbs have no tax base to support decent schools and often have more of a gang and drug problem than the cities do.

BedSty and Fort Green in Brooklyn used to be combat zones. Social workers only went on home visits with police escorts. Now they are upscale areas where brownstones went from being hard to give away to being worth three million dollars and up. There is a vibrant commercial life and the streets are relatively safe. Perhaps the best example is Los Angeles and skid row that is now a very upscale area filled with bars, restaurants, high rent apartments and upscale condominiums.

A good many areas have wage incentives. In Los Angeles billets that would normally be filled by Lieutenants are filled by Captains because Los Angeles on a Lieutenants salary is impossible. Housing in resort cities is often too expensive for fast food workers or bank tellers or other "working stiffs".
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:44:23 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

And yet California has one of the highest populations of illegal immigration of low skilled workers in the country...they come here with very little resources and somehow can afford to live in one of the highest cost states in the nation...I wonder how that is possible?



Roommates.

I lived in L.A. and NYC on $10/hr in the mid-2000's with no problems. When I got a raise to $12/hr I was even able put a little money away into savings every month. A decent job, 1-2 roommates paying equal share, and you're golden.

San Francisco might be a different story, though...
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:46:33 PM permalink
No body ever believed that "too cheap to meter" guff and the buyers of all electric medallion homes wound up in tears.

Automation? eliminates a lot of pencil pushing middle managers. Sure computers increased jobs but only at the printing/bursting/decollating level. Created an army of permanent entry-level workers in the sixties and seventies.

Foreign cultures will allow workers to "buy" their replacement robots and keep the worker's income stream. American culture is to fire the workers and buy robots.

Companies in America that tell their workers robots may take your work assignment but they won't take away your paycheck are often foreign owned.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:46:34 PM permalink
No body ever believed that "too cheap to meter" guff and the buyers of all electric medallion homes wound up in tears.

Automation? eliminates a lot of pencil pushing middle managers. Sure computers increased jobs but only at the printing/bursting/decollating level. Created an army of permanent entry-level workers in the sixties and seventies.

Foreign cultures will allow workers to "buy" their replacement robots and keep the worker's income stream. American culture is to fire the workers and buy robots.

Companies in America that tell their workers robots may take your work assignment but they won't take away your paycheck are often foreign owned.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 1st, 2018 at 1:55:43 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


4. Insurance companies will be SOL - because auto insurance will become a thing of the past.



Not going to happen. We already see accidents. The "perfect world" would mean no accidents. It is not a perfect world. Suppose someone walks in front of an autonomous car with not enough room to stop?

Quote:

5. Eventually there will be no private ownership of cars. Autonomous cars will be housed in big parking lots/facilities. You will call for a car with your phone, it will pick you up at your home and drive you to your destination.
- No more worrying about car payments, automotive maintenance, buying gas, replacing tires,
- Homes will eventually have no garages and no driveways. This will make homes cheaper.



Also not happening. Do you really think people are going to accept taking just whatever car shows up? Who knows how much garbage left in it? Smelling of smoke? Do you think the average family with kids is going to keep installing and removing car seats?

As to "no more driveways," we already have hundreds of millions of homes. They will not be retrofit.

Then you have to say where all these cars will be parked? Who is going to maintain them?

It is not so easy.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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June 1st, 2018 at 2:19:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was in high school in the early 80's. When predictions for the near future was discussed, everybody seemed to agree on the following two:




Not sure how many predictions are wrong, but plenty are wrong on the timeline. Our space exploration predictions have been slow to be realized, but there is still progress. Some things will never be realized, but others may just have a different implementation.
The Hall of Unverified Claims is a vast place with many shelves.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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June 1st, 2018 at 2:36:00 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Not going to happen. We already see accidents. The "perfect world" would mean no accidents. It is not a perfect world. Suppose someone walks in front of an autonomous car with not enough room to stop?



And whose liability would that be? Maybe the pedestrian, in your example.

In any case, accident rates will be much much lower. And if you are not driving and the infrastructure system routes your car down B Street because A street is congested, and your car's computer screws up and runs you into a road construction barrier whose fault is that? If you don't drive a car, why should you be the one paying insurance? And if the insurance companies aren't selling auto insurance to individuals, but instead to car manufacturers, then the money-mint that is the insurance business is over.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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June 1st, 2018 at 3:00:25 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

And whose liability would that be? Maybe the pedestrian, in your example.



Peds pretty much always have the right of way over cars.

Quote:

In any case, accident rates will be much much lower.



So they say. In a perfect world of dry roads properly marked. But here is the thing, autonomous cars will not work in the snow and probably in the rain. Same as you should never use cruise control in the rain. It is why I say we may see glorified cruise control, but full autonomy is a generation or more away.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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