The Toxin Puzzle.
May 19th, 2018 at 2:05:26 AM
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I think this is close enough to gambling to not be off topic. Here is the puzzle. How do you get the money?
An eccentric billionaire places before you a vial of toxin that, if you drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or have any lasting effects. The billionaire will pay you one million dollars tomorrow morning if, at midnight tonight, you intend to drink the toxin tomorrow afternoon. He emphasizes that you need not drink the toxin to receive the money; in fact, the money will already be in your bank account hours before the time for drinking it arrives, if you succeed. All you have to do is. . . intend at midnight tonight to drink the stuff tomorrow afternoon. You are perfectly free to change your mind after receiving the money and not drink the toxin.
...................
My interpretation is that you cannot intentionally lie. Looking at proposed solutions, this seems to be a common assumption.
If you think that $2.4 million is "not a lot of money" pretend it was more or that you were poor.
An eccentric billionaire places before you a vial of toxin that, if you drink it, will make you painfully ill for a day, but will not threaten your life or have any lasting effects. The billionaire will pay you one million dollars tomorrow morning if, at midnight tonight, you intend to drink the toxin tomorrow afternoon. He emphasizes that you need not drink the toxin to receive the money; in fact, the money will already be in your bank account hours before the time for drinking it arrives, if you succeed. All you have to do is. . . intend at midnight tonight to drink the stuff tomorrow afternoon. You are perfectly free to change your mind after receiving the money and not drink the toxin.
...................
My interpretation is that you cannot intentionally lie. Looking at proposed solutions, this seems to be a common assumption.
If you think that $2.4 million is "not a lot of money" pretend it was more or that you were poor.
May 19th, 2018 at 2:17:18 AM
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so how is the correct answer determined ? Somebody did a quiz like this not so long ago and there was only the question, no answer
btw how does 1 become 2.4?
btw how does 1 become 2.4?
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 2:26:01 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitso how is the correct answer determined ? Somebody did a quiz like this not so long ago and there was only the question, no answer
btw how does 1 become 2.4?
It was just an allusion to a previous conversation wherin people insisted $2.4 mil was "not a lot of money." To them, a paltry $1 mil might not be worth it.
There is a solution i favor but it seems no correct answer is agreed upon.
May 19th, 2018 at 2:56:37 AM
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then there are 2 ways to win, one by lying, the other by honestly planning to take the toxin. Nobody can say I am right or wrong. That type of quiz puzzles me.
btw the other quiz with no answer, it was supposed to prove you were some kind of pervert if you even took the quiz, or something like that. Really sucked.
btw the other quiz with no answer, it was supposed to prove you were some kind of pervert if you even took the quiz, or something like that. Really sucked.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 3:31:32 AM
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You can't lie.
Can you honestly plan to take the poison if you know that you will get paid without doing so?
Can you honestly plan to take the poison if you know that you will get paid without doing so?
Quote: odiousgambitThat type of quiz puzzles me.
May 19th, 2018 at 3:42:05 AM
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It appears to me to be less about winning and more about exposing what type of person you are
The potion will make you ill but have no serious or lasting side affects. So taking the toxin is worth it for a million dollars
Knowing you actually dont have to take it once you receive the money are you
A) the type of person who reneges intentionally once paid
B) follows through on the agreed terms regardless of how much effort it will take
The potion will make you ill but have no serious or lasting side affects. So taking the toxin is worth it for a million dollars
Knowing you actually dont have to take it once you receive the money are you
A) the type of person who reneges intentionally once paid
B) follows through on the agreed terms regardless of how much effort it will take
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
May 19th, 2018 at 3:54:05 AM
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Quote: RigondeauxYou can't lie.
says who? I see no reason it would not work.
Quote:Can you honestly plan to take the poison if you know that you will get paid without doing so?
plan B would be to honestly plan to take the poison. Plan A was to lie. These are two separate plans that you are conflating into one.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 6:25:22 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitbtw the other quiz with no answer, it was supposed to prove you were some kind of pervert if you even took the quiz, or something like that. Really sucked.
Was that the 'Why did she murder her sister' question, which is supposed to reveal if the person answering the question is a psychopath?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sister-act/
as to the original post in this thread...
https://www.quora.com/What-is-Kavkas-toxin-puzzle
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
May 19th, 2018 at 7:39:32 AM
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YesQuote: OnceDearWas that the 'Why did she murder her sister' question, which is supposed to reveal if the person answering the question is a psychopath?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sister-act/
thanks for finding that, but see nextQuote:as to the original post in this thread...
https://www.quora.com/What-is-Kavkas-toxin-puzzle
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on May 19, 2018
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 7:39:37 AM
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I still am condemning this quiz as unenlightening in the extreme. I'm happy for the math guy in the link who found it interesting, but I am also happy I can have nothing to do with such a schmuck.
I have come to accept that it is a premise that you can't lie, but would argue that this simply should be made clear.
Out of the population, there would be some people who could honestly agree to take the poison without lying. Many would renege, some would not, perhaps just a few. All percentages would be low across the board. That is the end of my interest in this phenomenally boring question. My main objection is that there should be no quizzes without answers that are right or wrong.
I have come to accept that it is a premise that you can't lie, but would argue that this simply should be made clear.
Out of the population, there would be some people who could honestly agree to take the poison without lying. Many would renege, some would not, perhaps just a few. All percentages would be low across the board. That is the end of my interest in this phenomenally boring question. My main objection is that there should be no quizzes without answers that are right or wrong.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 11:33:18 AM
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Is it possible that you just don't get it? It's not a quiz. It's more of a game theory puzzle, or i would say trap
Firstly it says you are paid if you intend to drink the poison. Not if you say you intend to.
Secondly, the billionaire says you are perfectly free to change your mind. Doing so would not make you a cheat.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavka%27s_toxin_puzzle
Firstly it says you are paid if you intend to drink the poison. Not if you say you intend to.
Secondly, the billionaire says you are perfectly free to change your mind. Doing so would not make you a cheat.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kavka%27s_toxin_puzzle
May 19th, 2018 at 11:36:21 AM
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This sounds like the same fate/free will issue at the heart of the Newcomb paradox. There is a long thread about it here: THE NEWCOMB PROBLEM. Our own darkoz even made a science fiction story out of it.
I've actually thought about this problem off and on quite a bit since that 2010 thread, and think I've changed my position on it. I argued for picking both boxes in that thread, but think I've switched camps to box A only. It's worth $1,000,000 to me to make the illogical decision, which kind of makes it the logical one.
I've actually thought about this problem off and on quite a bit since that 2010 thread, and think I've changed my position on it. I argued for picking both boxes in that thread, but think I've switched camps to box A only. It's worth $1,000,000 to me to make the illogical decision, which kind of makes it the logical one.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 19th, 2018 at 11:58:10 AM
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I actually solved this problem without googling it.
It matters if you TRULY INTEND on taking the poison the next day. Odious is saying you should lie....and sure, I guess you could, but you aren’t getting that money if you lie. If you lie, you weren’t truly intending on taking the poison the following day at midnight.
The solution is simple: You force yourself to actually take the toxin the next day, no matter what. If you follow through with it, then you were intending to take the toxin.
It matters if you TRULY INTEND on taking the poison the next day. Odious is saying you should lie....and sure, I guess you could, but you aren’t getting that money if you lie. If you lie, you weren’t truly intending on taking the poison the following day at midnight.
The solution is simple: You force yourself to actually take the toxin the next day, no matter what. If you follow through with it, then you were intending to take the toxin.
May 19th, 2018 at 12:28:00 PM
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Yes it is a reverse causation thing.
I agree with RS and the guy from who he stole the idea.
It still seems weird though. Because there you would be with the million in your account already and you could still change your mind with no repercussions.
I agree with RS and the guy from who he stole the idea.
It still seems weird though. Because there you would be with the million in your account already and you could still change your mind with no repercussions.
May 19th, 2018 at 12:31:01 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxIt was just an allusion to a previous conversation wherin people insisted $2.4 mil was "not a lot of money."
I just can't get past this... Other than billionaires, who doesn't think 2.4 mil is a lot of money?
May 19th, 2018 at 12:57:15 PM
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Quote: TigerWuI just can't get past this... Other than billionaires, who doesn't think 2.4 mil is a lot of money?
it is not a lot of money if
*you are a young person and you want to retire on it, never working again [although it may be adequate for some, depending]
*you are at retirement age and want it to last for decades, meanwhile living a lavish lifestyle
however, it is always a lot of money to save, wealthy or not
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 19th, 2018 at 12:57:27 PM
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Quote: RigondeauxYes it is a reverse causation thing.
I agree with RS and the guy from who he stole the idea.
It still seems weird though. Because there you would be with the million in your account already and you could still change your mind with no repercussions.
I came up with my solution on my own! I really did. Grrr...
Quote: TigerWuI just can't get past this... Other than billionaires, who doesn't think 2.4 mil is a lot of money?
I guess it depends on the context. I'll say it's less money than most people probably think or imagine it to be.
May 19th, 2018 at 1:16:02 PM
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Quote: RS
I guess it depends on the context. I'll say it's less money than most people probably think or imagine it to be.
Haha.... see, I think it's the exact opposite... I think it's WAY more money than people realize.
If you had it invested in a simple balanced portfolio of bonds and index funds, at a 4% SWR you could pull out $75,000 a year indefinitely (even adjusting for inflation). If you were 18 years old you could retire immediately and live better than most people in the WORLD. Even at $95,000 a year, $2.4 mil would last decades.
Those numbers are a pretty comfortable living almost anywhere in the U.S. If you still wanted to work a job on top of that, you're living like a king.
Heck, even if you DIDN'T invest it, and stuck it in a crappy 0% interest checking account, you could pull out $50k a year for 48 years.
$2.4 million is definitely a decent chunk of change.
May 19th, 2018 at 1:29:04 PM
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Here is the breakdown.
Some poor/ignorant people think 2.4 million means you can live in a mansion and drive a Bently and eat at expensive restaurants constantly and wear designer clothes and diamonds for 50 years without working. Incorrect. Probably not relevant to this forum.
Some people are wealthy and for whatever reason, refuse to admit it, or are just detached from reality. They think, "well, my mortgages are $25,000 a month. I have eight kids who all go to $20k/yr private schools or $50k/yr colleges. I have to buy my wife a $10,000 piece of jewelry 10 times a year" etc. and they can't/won't process the fact that by any objective standard, a sum that would put a completely broke person into one of the .01% of richest people on earth is a lot of money. i.e. just because you spend a lot of money, doesn't mean it's not a lot of money.
Poseurs who want to sound like the second group.
Anyway....
Some poor/ignorant people think 2.4 million means you can live in a mansion and drive a Bently and eat at expensive restaurants constantly and wear designer clothes and diamonds for 50 years without working. Incorrect. Probably not relevant to this forum.
Some people are wealthy and for whatever reason, refuse to admit it, or are just detached from reality. They think, "well, my mortgages are $25,000 a month. I have eight kids who all go to $20k/yr private schools or $50k/yr colleges. I have to buy my wife a $10,000 piece of jewelry 10 times a year" etc. and they can't/won't process the fact that by any objective standard, a sum that would put a completely broke person into one of the .01% of richest people on earth is a lot of money. i.e. just because you spend a lot of money, doesn't mean it's not a lot of money.
Poseurs who want to sound like the second group.
Anyway....
May 19th, 2018 at 2:24:01 PM
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Simples,
I intend to take the toxin tomorrow afternoon. However I also intend to avoid tomorrow afternoon.
With reasonable timing one can cross the dateline (for example a long flight from LA to Sydney leaves LA last at night - I know I've done it!). That way I see tomorrow morning, but then skip into the day after tomorrow morning.
Thus I was truthful when I announced that if I am around tomorrow afternoon I shall take the toxin. The trick is due to the time warp tomorrow afternoon never comes.
I intend to take the toxin tomorrow afternoon. However I also intend to avoid tomorrow afternoon.
With reasonable timing one can cross the dateline (for example a long flight from LA to Sydney leaves LA last at night - I know I've done it!). That way I see tomorrow morning, but then skip into the day after tomorrow morning.
Thus I was truthful when I announced that if I am around tomorrow afternoon I shall take the toxin. The trick is due to the time warp tomorrow afternoon never comes.
May 19th, 2018 at 2:27:17 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickSimples,
I intend to take the toxin tomorrow afternoon. However I also intend to avoid tomorrow afternoon.
With reasonable timing one can cross the dateline (for example a long flight from LA to Sydney leaves LA last at night - I know I've done it!). That way I see tomorrow morning, but then skip into the day after tomorrow morning.
Thus I was truthful when I announced that if I am around tomorrow afternoon I shall take the toxin. The trick is due to the time warp tomorrow afternoon never comes.
But then you're not actually intending on taking the toxin.
May 19th, 2018 at 2:52:50 PM
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Depends what the money is in, as well. My Mom inherited an IRA worth close to a million. Problem was as an IRA it had never been taxed. It was nice, could have been life changing if she wanted, but it was very different than inheriting a cool million.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
May 20th, 2018 at 5:23:26 PM
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Quote: RSI actually solved this problem without googling it.
Good answer. This one wins for it's simplicity.
However, couldn't we could signal that we are forcing ourselves to drink the poison?
We could add the name of the billionaire to our bank account and gave him the instruction to remove the funds if we didn't follow through with our intentions to drink the toxin. That way we must drink the poison to keep the money, therefore we absolutely intend to do so.
We could also drink two vials of toxin at 11:58 the night before. That way we would be violently ill whether we drink another one in the afternoon or not, which means there's no negative cost to drinking it in the afternoon
May 20th, 2018 at 5:37:31 PM
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Quote: TigerWuIf you were 18 years old you could retire immediately and live better than most people in the WORLD. Even at $95,000 a year, $2.4 mil would last decades.
At 18 - 25. most Americans are only living off like $20,000 per year. Spend a few years only living off "only" 150% of that and the amount will grow even more. Not having to pay interest on house payments can make fixed costs drop to near zero. Then because you don't have to go into the workforce you can earn money on hobbies like casinos and youtube videos. Without the hindrance of the workforce you can spend that time and effort making better investments and do much better than 4%. With just a little planning it could take someone from nothing to a lifetime of a top 1% lifestyle
May 20th, 2018 at 7:18:11 PM
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Here is my shot at creating a solution:
Intend to take the toxin and accept the $1 million.
Also, sign over Medical power of attorney temporarily (for a day or week) to a doctor (ideally) or family member. Presumably the person with Medical Power of Attorney will commit you to a medical facility and forbid that you take the toxin. If they don't do that, then you take the toxin as you intended.
Intend to take the toxin and accept the $1 million.
Also, sign over Medical power of attorney temporarily (for a day or week) to a doctor (ideally) or family member. Presumably the person with Medical Power of Attorney will commit you to a medical facility and forbid that you take the toxin. If they don't do that, then you take the toxin as you intended.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
May 20th, 2018 at 8:14:53 PM
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Quote: gordonm888Here is my shot at creating a solution:
Intend to take the toxin and accept the $1 million.
Also, sign over Medical power of attorney temporarily (for a day or week) to a doctor (ideally) or family member. Presumably the person with Medical Power of Attorney will commit you to a medical facility and forbid that you take the toxin. If they don't do that, then you take the toxin as you intended.
By granting someone the medical power of attorney you’re trying to get out of it, thus you aren’t intending on taking the toxin. You’re just pretending like you’re intending to do it.
The way to get out of it would be if you fully commit to taking the toxin without any layabout theories, but then someone else, completely out of your control, forbids you from doing it...or something along those lines.
May 20th, 2018 at 9:06:28 PM
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While i still favor the solution RS shamelessly plagiarized, it is kind of a mind f.
The money is in your account. You are lock to win. If you didn't drink you'd still get paid.
However you must drink anyway because this is what caused your intention to be sincere.
Or do you?
I sometimes imagine that instead of drinking poison, i must spend 24 hours reading kid's funny books and watching mindless space man movies
The money is in your account. You are lock to win. If you didn't drink you'd still get paid.
However you must drink anyway because this is what caused your intention to be sincere.
Or do you?
I sometimes imagine that instead of drinking poison, i must spend 24 hours reading kid's funny books and watching mindless space man movies
May 20th, 2018 at 9:57:57 PM
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How does actually drinking the toxin the next afternoon prove intent before midnight of the previous day?
Does the billionaire have psychic powers?
Perhaps the billionaire is a "precog" and can see the future?
Does the billionaire have psychic powers?
Perhaps the billionaire is a "precog" and can see the future?
May 20th, 2018 at 11:07:24 PM
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Interesting question. I don't think drinking the toxin proves your original intent. It's meant to deal with the problem of forming an intention to do something knowing that you won't do it.
I.e if i know i will probably cange my mind, do i really intend to drink the poison?
I guess another aspect of this could be what it means to intend.
I.e if i know i will probably cange my mind, do i really intend to drink the poison?
I guess another aspect of this could be what it means to intend.
May 21st, 2018 at 1:45:00 AM
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Quote: KeeneoneHow does actually drinking the toxin the next afternoon prove intent before midnight of the previous day?
The next day at the afternoon, drinking the toxin doesn't necessarily prove the night before's intent.
But I'd say, if it were me the night before, my rationale would be to figure out a way to force myself to intend on drinking the toxin. The simplest way is to just commit to doing it, something like, "I don't give a sh** if I have to or not, I'm just going to take the toxin. It's only fair that I take the toxin. It's worth the $50 million." (I ain't no peasant, $2.4M, what, you think that's a lot of money? That'll buy a small house if you're lucky.)
Whether the billionaire can read your mind, look into the future, or whatever else is just semantics. I take the original question to not include something like trying to trick the billionaire. Simply, if you truly intend on taking the toxin, then you get the money....and not some layabout thoughts of trying to pull one over on him. Intent is intent; IMO there shouldn't be any questions as far as what is or isn't intent. If you're trying to get out of it, you're not intending on doing it.
May 21st, 2018 at 2:01:27 AM
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+1000Quote: Rigondeaux
I agree with RS and the guy from who he stole the idea.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 21st, 2018 at 2:55:41 AM
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If I was the billionaire I would definitely claim the person who drank the poison didn't intend to at the time he announced he would.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 21st, 2018 at 8:14:45 AM
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Here's the solution to this: The toxin is a placebo, but the person drinking doesn't know. That way, the next day if claims he intends to drink it, he actually drinks it, but nothing happens. So, he's proven his intent, but nothing happens to him. That way you don't need a billionaire mind reader to know if his intent was true.
May 21st, 2018 at 1:13:26 PM
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.....
May 21st, 2018 at 1:41:17 PM
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Quote: Rigondeaux.....
I just clicked on this thread specifically to see what Rigondeaux had to say on this subject and that is all he said. Did that qualify as a post? Is Rigondeaux padding his post stats?
My reply is: ....?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
