Sweet 16 -Elite 8 discussion
Quote: GlenGMy work pool gave me Texas Tech to win it all (random picks) fingers crossed.
Good luck, then! God knows most people are scah-ROOD!
They usually are.Quote: beachbumbabsGood luck, then! God knows most people are scah-ROOD!
Despite Fullerton being an Edge City, famously profiled in a best seller and having had a young female entrepreneur whose store featured a large jar with a pharmaceutical grade cocaine label on it, their darned team didn't win and so they won't be at the finals much less this intermediate round which is apparently for teenage girls. I also liked the British store they had there that sold nothing but products from the UK and Ireland.
Despite the fond memories of all that Ribena syrup and the cheerful teenage girl who did very well owning her own business, I really thought that team would do well. Yet I was mocked for it and even ESPN sent me some sort of email concerning my bracket. I even dug out an old calligraphy kit I bought from that young girl's store eons ago and practiced making brackets but then found out that wasn't relevant to March Madness.
Anyway, I wish all of you the best of luck in this NCAA stuff. Are there brackets for the NBA too?
Quote: WatchMeWinNova baby! Its a Philly Philly kinda year!
They are the best team left. Still less than 50% chance to win it all.....
Quote: SOOPOOThey are the best team left. Still less than 50% chance to win it all.....
Anything can happen in March Madness, that's for sure. Duke will be tough...
Quote: WatchMeWinNova baby! Its a Philly Philly kinda year!
..... Just sayin!!
| Teams remaining | 2018 | All time |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | 5.97 | 5.80 |
| 16 | 5.31 | 4.55 |
| 8 | 4.88 | 3.21 |
| 4 | 4.00 | 2.82 |
| 2 | 2.00 | 2.34 |
| 1 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
Obviously a good year for underdogs. I think the most noteworthy statistic is an average ranking of 4.88 in the Elite 8, compared to a historical average of 3.21.
Here is an updated table of the expected wins for a specific team by its seed.
| Seed | Avg wins |
|---|---|
| 1 | 3.345588 |
| 2 | 2.352941 |
| 3 | 1.830882 |
| 4 | 1.544118 |
| 5 | 1.117647 |
| 6 | 1.095588 |
| 7 | 0.919118 |
| 8 | 0.735294 |
| 9 | 0.566176 |
| 10 | 0.617647 |
| 11 | 0.610294 |
| 12 | 0.500000 |
| 13 | 0.250000 |
| 14 | 0.169118 |
| 15 | 0.073529 |
| 16 | 0.007353 |
Quote: SOOPOOWhat a fun team to be a fan of. Nova did it the Wright way.
You're Right about Wright! All class and knows how to win and make winners. Definitely a great year to ride them! Going to pick up my pool prize and then to the parade now! What a day it will be!
I mean that Ferttita guy who lost 25k on Michigan as wining championship game didn't have to do a bracket first.
So even after Cal State Fullerton floundered, its possible to still make money at this game, just not be locked into a bracket.
Anyone know how many had bets on the two finalists prior to opening day?
Quote: FleaStiffIts possible to do off-bracket betting too isn't it?
I mean that Ferttita guy who lost 25k on Michigan as wining championship game didn't have to do a bracket first.
This is exactly why you should hedge when you have guaranteed winnings. The ones on this board that say to never hedge are idioto!
Quote: WatchMeWinThis is exactly why you should hedge when you have guaranteed winnings. The ones on this board that say to never hedge are idioto!
You should always hedge if it's a good bet and you should never hedge if it's a bad bet.
The hard part is deciding if something is a good bet or not. Was Loyola +220 in the semi-finals a good bet or not? What about Villanova -330 in the finals? Was that a good bet or not? If you can answer those questions before the game, you will earn money. If you can't answer those questions, betting on the games will cause you to lose money. Hedging is fine, but overall it has very little to impact on overall profits
Quote: TomGYou should always hedge if it's a good bet and you should never hedge if it's a bad bet.
The hard part is deciding if something is a good bet or not. Was Loyola +220 in the semi-finals a good bet or not? What about Villanova -330 in the finals? Was that a good bet or not? If you can answer those questions before the game, you will earn money. If you can't answer those questions, betting on the games will cause you to lose money. Hedging is fine, but overall it has very little to impact on overall profits
When you are in a position to 'WIN' either way, regardless of the outcome of the game due to your hedge, then it is always a good bet. Im talking about when a win is 'guaranteed' by hedging... usually because you already took a risk earlier and you are now in a position to capitalize and not rely on future unknown outcomes.
eg... Perfect example is the guy who bet Michigan at 40-1 for 25k at Golden Nugget. He took the risk when he put the initial bet in. Michigan made it to the finals so hedging that game to guarantee himself a W regardless of the outcome of the championship game , rather than rolling the dice for all or nothing.
eg... You take a 6 team parlay. You win the first five games on the ticket. The last game goes monday night. If you can hedge the other side to guarantee a W regardless of who wins , I would do it, and do do it, all day long. Of course there is a curve as to how much is worth the hedge or not depending on how large the payout would be vs the loss if not hedge, and win if hedged.
Quote: WatchMeWineg... You take a 6 team parlay. You win the first five games on the ticket. The last game goes monday night. If you can hedge the other side to guarantee a W regardless of who wins , I would do it, and do do it, all day long.
Why is that better than betting a five team parlay on Sunday, then if the first five games win, making the best possible bet Monday night completely independent of those other games?
Quote: TomGWhy is that better than betting a five team parlay on Sunday, then if the first five games win, making the best possible bet Monday night completely independent of those other games?
The objective is to have potential large payout with minimal defined risk.
To answer your question, I believe you are asking why not just take the 5 team parlay , accept the win and then play the last game independently? Because the parlay I would be taking usually have 1, 2, or 3 plus ML sides in them which amplifies the 6 team parlay immensely. A typical 5 team parlay pays 25 -1 , and a typical 6 team parlay pays 50-1.... but if you have a couple of Plus 150, 200, 259 or even plus 300 odds in those parlays, the payout from 5 teamer to 6 teamer increases greatly. Therefore, the 6 teamer may payout 200 -1. So for a 100 bet, after the 5 teams hit, I would bet say 5k on the hedge side , this way I will either win 15k or 4900. Whereas the 5 teamer payout would not give as good of a value.
In the example of taking Michigan at 40-1 for 25k. Once they got to the finals, if he hadn't hedged on Villanova, instead of winning 300+K , he would have lost 25k.
Quote: TomGYou should always hedge if it's a good bet and you should never hedge if it's a bad bet.
It depends on how you define "good" and "bad". The Wiz has often said hedging is bad unless life changing money is involved. If you were in a pool and you arrived at the finals and if Villanova wins you win $1,000,000, you wouldn't think it reasonable to bet $200,000 on Michigan at 3-1? Guarantee $600k win? More likely $800k win? Lets say you were giving up 10% in EV on the $200k bet, I would still classify it as a good bet for most people. If you are a millionaire bettor who often bets 6 figures then I would classify it as a bad bet.
Anyone (me) that has life insurance, disability insurance, etc... has made technically a 'bad' bet by EV alone.
Quote: WatchMeWinA typical 5 team parlay pays 25 -1 , and a typical 6 team parlay pays 50-1.... but if you have a couple of Plus 150, 200, 259 or even plus 300 odds in those parlays, the payout from 5 teamer to 6 teamer increases greatly. Therefore, the 6 teamer may payout 200 -1. So for a 100 bet, after the 5 teams hit, I would bet say 5k on the hedge side , this way I will either win 15k or 4900. Whereas the 5 teamer payout would not give as good of a value.
A five team parlay with a couple +280 money lines would payout 100-1. Which is a guaranteed $10,000 profit if it hits. You then bet the last game at even money (as your math suggests) and win either $15,000 or $5,000 -- which is better than your example of $15,000 or $4,900. What am I missing?
Quote: SOOPOOIf you were in a pool and you arrived at the finals and if Villanova wins you win $1,000,000, you wouldn't think it reasonable to bet $200,000 on Michigan at 3-1?
Michigan at +300 on the National Championship game would have been a good bet no matter what simply because their odds were greater than 25%. Had you arrived at the finals win a chance to win $1,000,000 in the Wolverines win, betting on Villanova at -400 would have been a bad bet
Quote: SOOPOOLets say you were giving up 10% in EV on the $200k bet, I would still classify it as a good bet for most people.
That would have to be considered a bad bet when there are were many opportunities to bet on Michigan while only giving up less than 3% in EV. Having to give up 10% in EV to bet on Michigan would have left you much worse off than betting Michigan at the best price available
Quote: SOOPOOAnyone (me) that has life insurance, disability insurance, etc... has made technically a 'bad' bet by EV alone.
Even if we agree that insurance can be a good bet in your situation, that doesn't mean some insurance isn't better than others. You should still make good bets in these markets and avoid the bad ones
