New guy
I have been playing BJ since I legally could. After a few trips I realized that it's for me. I would like to think I'm one of the few that can make it. Time will tell. I currently work a job that takes a toll on my body in many ways. I make around 80k a year so it's not bad money but it's not something that I can do for another 20+ years. 'Chase your dreams' they say....well I want to.
I have not, and I repeat have not, lost more than $200 in a trip to the tables in over 2 years. I have been winning consistently. I don't count, don't have many superstitions other than a piece of jewelry I wear. I just start conservative at the $25 min tables and feel everything out from the dealer to the others at the table. I am not afraid to be aggressive, it's actually my favorite part of playing. Last week for example, I played twice on a trip to see my mom, on the way there and again on the way back, bought in for $300 the first night and 3 hours later cashed in $3500, 5 days later on the way back, I took another $300 (because I wasn't gonna give it all back to the house) and 25 minutes later I was cashing in $2400. I usually am up $1k or more within 30-60 minutes. I feel like I have some luck, some skill and some balls.
Now, I do not live close to any tables, 2 1/2 hours is my closest casino. That is the reason why I haven't really given this a shot. But now that I see that I can play the game and know when to walk, my fiancé and I want to give this a shot. We are starting next weekend, taking $500 and just making a day trip. I have a number in my head that when I hit, throw the chips in her purse and play with the remaining chips. I am starting with a realistic goal and will see how this works out. I would appreciate any info or input or harsh reality type of words that you all can throw my way. Thanks members for hearing me out.
Hi. I am a recreational player, and I also do not count (for personal reasons because i like to drink, have fun, and see this as entertainment rather than a career). However, there will be lots of folks here who can give you sound advice(s) on this topic. Not to be mean, but most will tell you there is no way you can keep it up. I'm very happy for you that you've been winning, but unless you're counting, you're probably going to hit the ugly end of variance. I'd like to give benefit of the doubt. Maybe you can keep a log and just be honest with yourself on your win/loss for sessions. From what you have written, it sounds like you have some kind of a money management system, but is it by "feel," or do you have a set system? I wish you the very best, but you'll probably have to hear an earful from fellow members who are much more knowledgeable and mathematically inclined than I am. Best of luck to you.
I have no idea if you got what it takes or not. What I can tell you, is that you need to forget everything you think you know about BJ and start from zero as if you knew nothing about BJ at all.Quote: Cappo1Hi guys and dolls... I'm new to this site/forum. I want to start off by saying thanks for having me and hopefully I'll be here a while. I'm here because I am working my way into (hopefully) making a career at the blackjack tables. I have heard from so many people in the last year that I should turn pro. Now as nice is that is to hear, I am a realist and know that this kind of choice and doing what I long for can chew me up and spit me out fast.
I have been playing BJ since I legally could. After a few trips I realized that it's for me. I would like to think I'm one of the few that can make it. Time will tell. I currently work a job that takes a toll on my body in many ways. I make around 80k a year so it's not bad money but it's not something that I can do for another 20+ years. 'Chase your dreams' they say....well I want to.
I have not, and I repeat have not, lost more than $200 in a trip to the tables in over 2 years. I have been winning consistently. I don't count, don't have many superstitions other than a piece of jewelry I wear. I just start conservative at the $25 min tables and feel everything out from the dealer to the others at the table. I am not afraid to be aggressive, it's actually my favorite part of playing. Last week for example, I played twice on a trip to see my mom, on the way there and again on the way back, bought in for $300 the first night and 3 hours later cashed in $3500, 5 days later on the way back, I took another $300 (because I wasn't gonna give it all back to the house) and 25 minutes later I was cashing in $2400. I usually am up $1k or more within 30-60 minutes. I feel like I have some luck, some skill and some balls.
Now, I do not live close to any tables, 2 1/2 hours is my closest casino. That is the reason why I haven't really given this a shot. But now that I see that I can play the game and know when to walk, my fiancé and I want to give this a shot. We are starting next weekend, taking $500 and just making a day trip. I have a number in my head that when I hit, throw the chips in her purse and play with the remaining chips. I am starting with a realistic goal and will see how this works out. I would appreciate any info or input or harsh reality type of words that you all can throw my way. Thanks members for hearing me out.
You didn't mention counting or any other legitimate methods of beating BJ. What you did mention is some type of money management system("knowing when to walk away").There is no system like that, that will work for long in blackjack(or any negative EV game). You must be doing something that gives you a mathematical advantage over the house to beat BJ in the long-run. "knowing when to walk away" does not give you an advantage. If you are playing with an advantage, you dont walk away just because you are up or down. There are legitimate reasons why you walk away from AP BJ. For instance: You are getting heat from the pit, you no longer have an advantage, you are too tired to play well etc. etc.
How is it you know you walked away at the right time? How do you know if you were going to lose or win the next ten hands? Maybe if you would have stayed you might have won the next 8 hands in a row.
It doesn't sound like you have been on that many BJ trips in the last 2 years If you haven't ever had a losing session for more than $200 and you are always winning. Unless you are playing short sessions with some type of Martingale system and you only take a few hundred with you in the first place.
I'm not sure if you are addressing me or WON. I didn't say, "I see disaster", but I sure was thinking it. You didn't even mention basic strategy or anything like that.Quote: Cappo1Can you elaborate some? I have dabbed in counting but seeing that the dealer cuts almost 1/4 of the deck out on shuffle , I see it hard to get a count on it?? Is that the reason you see disaster, because I am not counting?? Or maybe something else in my post? I'm just curious. Thanks
If you are not counting can you explain how you will/do achieve and advantage?
If you can't answer that question and then back it up with math, then it won't be long before the house advantage takes back everything you have won so far and more. Casinos were built on guys who play like you are suggesting.
It seems odd to me that you dabbled in counting, but basically disregarded it to play some "quit while im ahead" system.
If you are serious about making money playing BJ, it sounds like you have a very long ways to go and a sh*t ton to learn. From the sounds of it, on a scale of 1 to10 of how ready you are to play BJ professionally, I would say -5. I wouldn't put in your notice at work just yet.
Quote: Cappo1Chase your dreams' they say....well I want to.
Welcome to the WoV Forum!
You certainly seem to have lots of experience. If your time and patience allows, especially if you want to do BJ another 20 years, you might want to at least read what other experienced folk have to say about counting.
Based on my readings, not my experience (very little), I see that your good fortune has been wave upon wave of favorable variance. Good for you! I hope you're prepared when the variance goes the other way.
I am a novice raw beginner in counting. No pressure. Do consider reading these articles by Romes:
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/article/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-3/
If you're into podcasts, this is a recent one on GWAE (Gambling With An Edge)
http://www.gamblingwithanedge.com/gambling-edge-guests-romes-bruce
Have a great journey with variance continuing only in your favor,
LW
If you look around and don't see who they are calling a troll, its probably you they are calling a troll.Quote: Cappo1Not sure who you're saying is trolling...
That's flaming.Quote: Cappo1As far as I know, trolling means saying s*** to piss people off... whatever
Trolling can mean a few diffrent things.
I think that in this case, they are clamming you are making nonsense crap up just for kicks.
You are the Falcons and the Casinos are the Patriots. The Patriots are just better, more experienced, and have a better chance to win head to head without you having a special "advantage." Advantage can equal a few things, but I am mostly referring to Card counting, or hole-counting. From what I am hearing you have no advantage.
It's half time, and you're up 20+ points, and you're confident and under the illusion that you're better than the Patriots. You've hit positive variance so far. Let's say in this scenario, you can quit the football game anytime. If you stop playing football (blackjack) now, you can be ahead and claim you've beat the Patriots (Casinos). However, you wont. You play the whole football game, and the negative variance finally evens out and the Patriots start normalizing. They will eventually win the game. In order for you to win, you'll need to have an advantage like knowing their play (card counting or hole-carding). Ultimately, as nice as I can put it. You've been getting lucky. Gambling is math. You can't defy the odds over a life time unless you find an advantage.
I hope this is a good analogy.
Sincerest welcome to the forum.Quote: Cappo1Hi guys and dolls... I'm new to this site/forum.
Really? I mean are you really, because you now go on to spout mumbo-jumboQuote:. . . I am working my way into (hopefully) making a career at the blackjack tables. . . I am a realist
and..?Quote:I have not, and I repeat have not, lost more than $200 in a trip to the tables in over 2 years.
Great big red flag: Mumbo-Jumbo alertQuote:I have been winning consistently. I don't count
And so it begins. 'Feel everything out'??? What nonsense is this?Quote:. . .and feel everything out from the dealer to the others at the table.
So. You chuck out a few big wagers and claw back a few hundred. Classic ploppie play.Quote:I am not afraid to be aggressive
Yes. That's a gambler's adrenaline rush.Quote:it's actually my favorite part of playing.
Skill can bring the house edge down to about 0.5%. Only luck or counting and other techniques can overcome it.Quote:I have some luck, some skill and some balls.
What. Do you know nothing about the game? Knowing when to walk is pure hokum. SESSIONS MEAN NOTHING: Quitting at just the right time when you are ahead means nothing. If you have a winning game you play till you need a meal or a pee or whatever. You don't 'know when to walk'Quote:. . .I can play the game and know when to walk
I sincerely hope you lose your bankroll on that session in clear view of your fiance. That's your best hope. If you win and feel invincible, you'll just set yourself up for total and abject ruin.Quote:I am starting with a realistic goal and will see how this works out. I would appreciate any info or input or harsh reality type of words that you all can throw my way. Thanks members for hearing me out.
Unless you have some way of beating the house edge that is not mumbo jumbo ( card counting is the main way) then you are just playing along and waiting for perfectly normal bad luck to come along and reassert the house edge. Unless you can mathematically show how you have an advantage, you do NOT have an advantage.
Play for fun. You have not shown any prowess to be professional, which is an incredibly hard slog needing massive opening bankroll or just lots and lots of absurd luck.
He is probably Kentry as well.Quote: NathanI am willing to give Cappo the benefit of the doubt. I still feel bad for jumping down a legitimate Newbie's throat last month just because a prior Newbie completely played me and turned out to be a scammer. Cappo doesn't seem like a troll to me. He seems intelligent and normal. Welcome to WOV boards, Capp. :)
Quote: Cappo1Not sure who you're saying is trolling...
This is a gambling forum and nothing is going to stop us from wagering. So when someone new comes on and says things that could be intended to get people 'going', well?
Sometimes the stakes are just bragging rights.
Note I say "could be" . If it was "certainly" it wouldn't be gambling.
I'd put "almost winning every time so I'm going pro even though I give no legitimate reasons to think for a second it would work" as too unlikely to be for real. I really don't believe someone who can write as articulately as Cappo1 can is likely to not know better than that.
So 'this person is not legit' is my wager [for bragging rights]
Quote: AxelWolfHe is probably Kentry as well.
I highly doubt that Cappo is Kentry.
It was a joke, but I have a feeling you would know better than anyone.Quote: NathanI highly doubt that Cappo is Kentry.
Quote: AxelWolfIt was a joke, but I have a feeling you would know better than anyone.
Look, I am NOT KENTRY! God damn it! I am NOT KENTRY!
I'm not Kentry.Quote: NathanLook, I am NOT KENTRY! God damn it! I am NOT KENTRY!
If I was, I would sing this all day long.
(back)Entry Kentry
Entry, kentry, cutry, corn,
Apple seed and apple thorn.
Wire, briar, limber lock,
Three geese in a flock.
One flew east,
One flew west,
One flew over the cuckoos nest
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMzE1NjY2NjY4.html
Quote: Cappo1Hi guys and dolls... I'm new to this site/forum. I want to start off by saying thanks for having me and hopefully I'll be here a while. I'm here because I am working my way into (hopefully) making a career at the blackjack tables. I have heard from so many people in the last year that I should turn pro. Now as nice is that is to hear, I am a realist and know that this kind of choice and doing what I long for can chew me up and spit me out fast.
I have been playing BJ since I legally could. After a few trips I realized that it's for me. I would like to think I'm one of the few that can make it. Time will tell. I currently work a job that takes a toll on my body in many ways. I make around 80k a year so it's not bad money but it's not something that I can do for another 20+ years. 'Chase your dreams' they say....well I want to.
I have not, and I repeat have not, lost more than $200 in a trip to the tables in over 2 years. I have been winning consistently. I don't count, don't have many superstitions other than a piece of jewelry I wear. I just start conservative at the $25 min tables and feel everything out from the dealer to the others at the table. I am not afraid to be aggressive, it's actually my favorite part of playing. Last week for example, I played twice on a trip to see my mom, on the way there and again on the way back, bought in for $300 the first night and 3 hours later cashed in $3500, 5 days later on the way back, I took another $300 (because I wasn't gonna give it all back to the house) and 25 minutes later I was cashing in $2400. I usually am up $1k or more within 30-60 minutes. I feel like I have some luck, some skill and some balls.
Now, I do not live close to any tables, 2 1/2 hours is my closest casino. That is the reason why I haven't really given this a shot. But now that I see that I can play the game and know when to walk, my fiancé and I want to give this a shot. We are starting next weekend, taking $500 and just making a day trip. I have a number in my head that when I hit, throw the chips in her purse and play with the remaining chips. I am starting with a realistic goal and will see how this works out. I would appreciate any info or input or harsh reality type of words that you all can throw my way. Thanks members for hearing me out.
I think you have the attitude to pursue BJ as a career but your strategy, I'm afraid, is not a winning one from the sound of it. I would suggest learning basic strategy and how to count cards; otherwise, you will eventually go broke. Your post leads me to believe you have a bankroll, discipline, and gumption to put out a big bet so I advise you to learn how to gain an advantage so you can make a sustainable career out of it.
Quote: NathanLook, I am NOT KENTRY! God damn it! I am NOT KENTRY!
Will the real slim Kentry please stand up?
I repeat, will the real slim Kentry please stand up?
We're gonna have a problem here...
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure if you are addressing me or WON. I didn't say, "I see disaster", but I sure was thinking it. You didn't even mention basic strategy or anything like that.
If you are not counting can you explain how you will/do achieve and advantage?
If you can't answer that question and then back it up with math, then it won't be long before the house advantage takes back everything you have won so far and more. Casinos were built on guys who play like you are suggesting.
It seems odd to me that you dabbled in counting, but basically disregarded it to play some "quit while im ahead" system.
If you are serious about making money playing BJ, it sounds like you have a very long ways to go and a sh*t ton to learn. From the sounds of it, on a scale of 1 to10 of how ready you are to play BJ professionally, I would say -5. I wouldn't put in your notice at work just yet.
I would say that as usual, you are grading this paper to high. Are you grading on a troll curve ?
Don't worry about it.
If everyone doesn't mind too much, do you guys think we can have a new member without immediately accusing same of being a sock?
Since Cappo1 seems interested in proving his legitimacy,I'm sure he won't mind me saying his IP is clean as a whistle and not anywhere even geographically close to the people you guys might accuse him of being.
Clean. Clean. Clean. The end.
The next accusation is an immediate ban, and not for Cappo1.
I post a lot about blackjack. LostWages referred you to my articles, which I think you should read. With that said, I'm not trying to be mean, but here's my assessement from your opening post:
You don't have an advantage when playing the game. You don't count cards, shuffle track, or any other AP maneuver on the game. Thus, you're literally just getting lucky. I also literally (because of math) do not believe you that you say you play 'fairly often' but haven't lost more than $200 in 2 years. Then again, I guess the only way I'd believe it is if you didn't buy in for more than $200 (which you already said you do in your OP) then had more losing $200 sessions than your winning ones.
Basically, people are being hard on you because the math tells us there is something wrong with your story. You have not figured out some new cool betting system as this has been hashed and rehashed more times than there are porn sites on the internet. The game can only be beaten if you track the changes in the house edge or have more information, which again changes the house edge. If you play the game straight up, you can not, and will not beat the game in the long run. You can certainly have a good run, which for someone who doesn't play very often could stretch out over months (doubtfully years)... but you will not win in the long run, and we can 100% prove that with math. So sorry for others being so hostile, but I hope you understand what you're doing is essentially coming in to an atheist club and preaching about jesus... We're not buying it.
Quote: Mission146Cappo1,
Don't worry about it.
If everyone doesn't mind too much, do you guys think we can have a new member without immediately accusing same of being a sock?
Since Cappo1 seems interested in proving his legitimacy,I'm sure he won't mind me saying his IP is clean as a whistle and not anywhere even geographically close to the people you guys might accuse him of being.
Clean. Clean. Clean. The end.
The next accusation is an immediate ban, and not for Cappo1.
I agree with you, Mission. :) It's time to stop scaring off legitimate Newbies. The last thing we want or need to do is to start permanently scaring off legitimate Newbies. One particular website scared off a legitimate Newbie and he hasn't been back in almost 5 years.
Quote: Mission146Your support means the world to me, Nathan.
Glad to hear that! :D
Quote: Mission146Your support means the world to me, Nathan.
Good grief; is his REAL name "Jacques Strapp?"
Is he supporting one-eyed fellas who hang with a couple of nuts?
Just wonderin'.
Quote: MrVGood grief; is his REAL name "Jacques Strapp?"
Is he supporting one-eyed fellas who hang with a couple of nuts?
Just wonderin'.
Or a couple eyed fella hanging with 1 nut because 1 seems to have gotten lost, at least until the derby.
Quote: Cappo1So many responses, that is good. Don't worry I'm not worried. Life isn't easy.. so I guess what I will do is start keeping a journal of buy ins, wins, losses, session times and all that so maybe I can keep you guys posted on my trips. And yeah I guess according to you guys I don't take many trips compared to you guys.. 10 a year and yeah the reason I haven't lost more than $200 is because I just happened to stop at that point. I'm not trying to come off as cocky or ignorant, though I am :-) ... had a bad family emergency come up so this weekend trip to start my trial may not happen. We'll see though. Thanks again and keep it up!!
Hopefully your bad family emergency comes out better than okay in the end.
Is everything ok with your family?
In other words..... I'M NOT CAPPO.Quote: NathanThat was Cappo who said he had a family emergency. I hope Cappo's family is okay.
Quote: Cappo1Proz I think you may have read it wrong, I had a family emergency. My fiancés mother, car accident
Oh my God. Is your future mother in law okay?
Quote: Cappo1We are starting next weekend, taking $500 and just making a day trip
so is this back on?
