The Guy That Was Always Right

I was playing craps in Texas Station this past weekend, when I had the following situation occur. I was standing next to a guy who was playing craps fairly haphazardly. He didn't have a pattern or system, but just laid down bets whenever he felt like it. He was only doing place bets, field bets, and the occasional middle section bet.

I wasn't paying much attention to him since he was on my blind side (away from the dice). But at one point, I distinctly heard him muttering to himself "two, two, c'mon two, c'mon two." Sure enough, a two was rolled. At this point, the stick man declared to the dealer the man's winnings, and I realized that he had thrown a bet out on the aces. I turned to him and said something along the lines of, "Well done". He looked a bit startled and said, "oh, you heard me." I didn't really know what to take from that, so I just nodded my head, and went back to the game.

At this point, I started to notice the guy a bit more, and noticed that he was ALWAYS muttering to himself. Whatever bet he had decided to throw out, he was muttering to himself for the dice to roll that number. It was many throws of the dice later that he was right again. I'm not sure of how many times he was wrong, and lost money. Anyway, he threw a bet out on the yo. Muttering, "yo, yo, c'mon yo", and 11 is rolled. Once again, I turn to him and congratulate him on his win as they push him a small stack of money. (I guess I should mention that this guy wasn't really betting a large sum of money. More like $5 a bet or so.)

Anyway, there follows more mutterings and more failed guesses. A few shooters later, he has four place bets out. I don't remember the specific place bets, but it's not relevant. The shooter throws a 2. Then the shooter throws a 3. I hear him muttering, "it's going to be a 7, it's going to be a 7." At this point, the guy asks the dealer to take down TWO of his place bets. The shooter rolls a 7.

I turn to the guy and say, "well, you called that." (Just note that I did not say this in a mean way or anything like that. It was said in a friendly, joking type fashion.) The guy answered, "Yeah. I'm always right. I know what the rolls are going to be." I admit I was a bit slack jawed at this "revelation." After all, I had just spent about 20 minutes playing next to the guy and heard him mutter all kinds of incorrect guesses. I was torn between pointing that out, or pointing out the fact that if he was SO certain that a 7 was going to be rolled, why didn't he take down ALL four of his place bets, instead of two of them? I debated mentioning either of these two things to him for a brief second, thought the better of it, closed my mouth, and went back to my own game.

Anybody else encounter these guys that are never wrong?

Not quite the same thing, but once in a while I get an e-mail from somebody who claims he can handicap the NFL with a 70%-90% success rate. Said person will ask if I want to buy his picks for publication on my web site. My response is always that if you can pick that well, you should be making millions on your own. The counter-response is usually "I don't gamble." Just like the nice chaps selling betting systems, who would rather see you get rich than themselves.

The best are the ones at the race track who always have a winning ticket but who only bet two dollars so that this oft-feared "they" will not notice his technique for consistently picking winners. Then one day he needs a huge amount of cash for an operation and offers to sell you his system.


Of course he simply has a ticket for each horse in the race and that is how he can always produce a winning ticket.

Often you notice the times that craps-talker is winning and don't really notice when he happens to be wrong. He only needs a few times to be right in quick succession and all around him are convinced.

Not on topic, but I'm reminded of two related quotations:

"I'm always right, except on those occasions when I'm not."

"He's always right. If you don't believe me, just ask him."

I just reminded myself of a stick woman who would call out a hop bet every once in a while before the roll of the dice. I would say she was right about 10% of the time. Lucky guessing, I would think. But, at one point, she did it twice in a row. (Not two rolls in a row, but rather of the times she guessed it.) Everybody who was present for the second time she called a hop and it was right decided it was now time to bet the hop anytime she called it after that.

Two weeks ago when I was touring Mississippi and its casinos, one craps session I colored up when I was ready to leave. I had just one $1 chip in the stack in my rack, so as I passed my other chips in, I tossed that single to the stick man and called for a Yo. It hit, and I was pleased to collect my $15. I then told him to move my Yo over to a dealer Yo. It hit again, and they dropped their $16 in the toke box. I think the dealers (and perhaps players) couldn't understand why I was leaving just as I started to find the winners! Sometimes it seems my irrational wagers perform better than the ones I feel I have thought out. That's craps for you.

I was playing BJ in Foxwoods back around 1990 or so on a table where the 7s were a side bet. This was back before I discovered that women dealers are bad mojo for me ;-)
I had not played a single side bet, and back then I was not aware of tipping either, but the lady dealer and I had been having a great time with good conversation. Out of the blue, late in the shoe, she says "might be a good time to play the side bet". I replied that I wasn't too sharp with the casino games, but I knew enough to stay away from the sucker bets. Naturally, she deals me 77 suited pair! I can't recall if I got the 3rd 7 or not.
Afterwards, on the way back to the campground, it occurred to me that she was probably tracking 7s as something to do to beat the boredom, and hadn't just made a wild guess..... Live and Learn.

Quote: Doc

Two weeks ago when I was touring Mississippi and its casinos, one craps session I colored up when I was ready to leave. I had just one $1 chip in the stack in my rack, so as I passed my other chips in, I tossed that single to the stick man and called for a Yo. It hit, and I was pleased to collect my $15. I then told him to move my Yo over to a dealer Yo. It hit again, and they dropped their $16 in the toke box. I think the dealers (and perhaps players) couldn't understand why I was leaving just as I started to find the winners! Sometimes it seems my irrational wagers perform better than the ones I feel I have thought out. That's craps for you.

Oh Doc. If only you could learn to say "PAR - LAY" with that found money! $16 for the dealers, $225 for George!

Quote: RaleighCraps

Oh Doc. If only you could learn to say "PAR - LAY" with that found money! $16 for the dealers, $225 for George!

Well, Raleigh, here is the link to my trip report. Take a look at the third-from-last paragraph to see how the word "parlay" was working. I repeat, "my irrational wagers...."

Quote: Doc

Well, Raleigh, here is the link to my trip report. Take a look at the third-from-last paragraph to see how the word "parlay" was working. I repeat, "my irrational wagers...."

Yeah, that report was what prompted my comment here, since technically I don't think you have said " par - lay" yet? Your bet was parlayed, but not of your doings....... ;-)
Great trip reports btw. I do question how much of a degenerate I am when I find satisfaction in reading about other people's craps sessions........

Quote: FleaStiff

The best are the ones at the race track who always have a winning ticket but who only bet two dollars so that this oft-feared "they" will not notice his technique for consistently picking winners. Then one day he needs a huge amount of cash for an operation and offers to sell you his system.


Of course he simply has a ticket for each horse in the race and that is how he can always produce a winning ticket.

Often you notice the times that craps-talker is winning and don't really notice when he happens to be wrong. He only needs a few times to be right in quick succession and all around him are convinced.

I thought I was the targeted victim of this scam about a month ago. My buddy and I stopped at a OTB just for a second, and we were next to a fairly normal looking young man. We just wanted to see one race at Charles Town. When it ended with the 60-1 longshot winning, the guy was like "I think I just won!" I rolled my eyes, thinking, "Okay, here we go..." He says: "I just liked the name so I put 50 bucks on #10 to win...I've never been here before!" Sure enough, I glance down at the ticket, and it's CTown, the right date, the right race, the right horse, and $50 to win. I think the win payoff was something like $127 so he won over $3000. I told him how much he won, and he had no comprehension. He didn't even know the odds when he bet on the horse. I asked him why he bet so much, and he said he just saw this one horse's name and wanted to make a bet. Now he was pretty nervous and I told him to make sure he had his Driver's License and Tax information...

Quote: RaleighCraps

... I don't think you have said " par - lay" yet? Your bet was parlayed, but not of your doings....... ;-)

That was indeed the case. My hardway bets are almost always $1, or occasionally $2 -- that's about what I'm willing to risk on a throw-away. There have, I assure you, been a number of times when I have parlayed a hardway, and (naturally) a much smaller number of times when the intentional parlay has hit. More recently, I have taken to pressing some of the successful $1 or $2 hardways to $5, then to $10 if they hit a second time. I feel I ought to take just a little of the winnings if an irrational bet comes in. ;-)