Doe's 90+% return even exists in casinos.
Specifically when they stated slot odds of return.
I've noticed in the last few years, sometimes these informative tomes aren't quite in easily readable places and in smaller fonts. But I recall the claim basically is like 98% return on slot games. And here is my question. What does this really imply? I've read some say the wording is 98% on any given game in the casino, but not all games AND this has been seen if it is interpreted as publicized on the wall the return is NOT for one visit, but may be for a whole year worth of playing any one game. In other words this wording is deceiving.
Such as, I've made 10 visits in one year, played the same game and only walked out 3 times with a little more than I came in with. Are those 3 times that I got a few bucks my 98% return? If so, my percentage of return for the total visits sucks. And if I played 100 a visit, and quit with 50 dollars over, I'm still in the hole for something like 600 bucks.
Next question, are you f'n serious?? No wonder you lost money on Ahigh's company stock.
That is why people play roulette with its 5.26 percent 'house edge'. In the short run, they can get a 35:1 payout then take that money and run. Its the house that just stays there grinding away with the long term odds being in their favor. That is why when you put five dollars down on Red or Black, the old guy in the green eye shades sees 26 cents, instead of five dollars.
Quote: BozRegardless of 85% or 99% return, if you spin once odds are you are going to lose. If you spin 100 times, even higher odds you are going to lose. If you won 3 out of 10 times, good for you!
Next question, are you f'n serious?? No wonder you lost money on Ahigh's company stock.
That's funny
Quote: billryanIn the late 90s I recall signs on some machines at Trump properties on the boardwalk stating this machine returned 98% or 100 % last month. They were pretty meaningless as past results mean nothing.
The point being, casinos make a statement of some ridiculous return that maybe, some machine somewhere on a given day may give that return, when one reads the fine print, if it's there, that it means 'over time' and 'on any random machine, not all the time on all machines'. But 'all the time' is what they want people to believe. It's the wording, or lack of words to condition and misinform people. It's an empty, deceiving advertising bullshit that should go away and even ap's probably have a misconception of this advertising. It's all about long odds, as usual with casinos.
The longer you play the more you lose if a ploppy and that's all they want playing.
Quote: sammydvThe point being, casinos make a statement of some ridiculous return that maybe, some machine somewhere on a given day may give that return, when one reads the fine print, if it's there, that it means 'over time' and 'on any random machine, not all the time on all machines'. But 'all the time' is what they want people to believe. It's the wording, or lack of words to condition and misinform people. It's an empty, deceiving advertising bullshit that should go away and even ap's probably have a misconception of this advertising. It's all about long odds, as usual with casinos.
The longer you play the more you lose if a ploppy and that's all they want playing.
It means statistically the game returns 98% on average. No one would play a game that returned 98% on every spin. Do you even know what that means? That would mean that for a 1 dollar bet every hand you would lose two cents with no chance of winning. That would be the most boring game ever and no one would play it ever. You literally may as well just walk in and hand a portion of your paycheck to the cashier and walk out.
I don't think that anyone except absolute morons think that they will always get back exactly 98% or whatever of any bet because again if you have the possibility of winning more than 98% of your bet and the average return is 98% then that means you have to have the possibility of returning less than 98%
Quote: TwirdmanIt means statistically the game returns 98% on average. No one would play a game that returned 98% on every spin. Do you even know what that means? That would mean that for a 1 dollar bet every hand you would lose two cents with no chance of winning. That would be the most boring game ever and no one would play it ever. You literally may as well just walk in and hand a portion of your paycheck to the cashier and walk out.
I don't think that anyone except absolute morons think that they will always get back exactly 98% or whatever of any bet because again if you have the possibility of winning more than 98% of your bet and the average return is 98% then that means you have to have the possibility of returning less than 98%
Where'd that even come from. Why not say 75% or 33.3%. Some may argue that the government dictated that and I believe that would be wrong as I think the casinos asked for that when all the government intervention was being formulated back in the wild west days of early organized casinos.
I'm not arguing the math or mechanics, I'm debating the why. And I submit it's a sham and always has been.
Crapola created by the casino brain trusts to keep people coming and losing. Not that hard of a concept.
Promise shit and not produce, yet keep the sham going.
Look at the state lotteries, they get huge, but people should notice you pick 1 to 75 numbers now. The lottery commission just added on 200 million to one more odds.
Quote: BozRegardless of 85% or 99% return, if you spin once odds are you are going to lose. If you spin 100 times, even higher odds you are going to lose. If you won 3 out of 10 times, good for you!
Next question, are you f'n serious?? No wonder you lost money on Ahigh's company stock.
I consider that a personal attack.
Are you capable of responding to a member without adding your personal quips?
Quote: WizardofnothingThat's funny
Personal attack (2)
Nothing of value added to the thread.
Quote: sammydvWhere'd that even come from. Why not say 75% or 33.3%.
It is done to maximize revenue for the state. If every slot machine was set to 0% no one would ever play. By forcing casinos to make every machine pay back a certain percentage more people visit the city and play on the machines. We can argue about what the exact number should be, but having a set number somewhere around 85% is better for the state than not having any restrictions.
Quote: sammydvAnd I submit it's a sham and always has been.
Crapola created by the casino brain trusts to keep people coming and losing. Not that hard of a concept.
Promise shit and not produce, yet keep the sham going
I agree that a lot of people don't understand what those payback percentages mean and fall victim to their own ignorance
The answer to your question, for Boz and others, may be "No".Quote: sammydvI consider that a personal attack.
Are you capable of responding to a member without adding your personal quips?
Is that OK with you? feathers
Quote: RS....and oftentimes a good chunk of the return comes from the top payout (ie: royal flush in VP...or 7-7-7 in blazing sevens).
I think that's the key. You can sit down at a 9/6 JOB machine ( > 99%!!) and if you don't manage to keep hitting even 4OAK hands pretty often that credit total will go down fast.
Quote: billryanIn the late 90s I recall signs on some machines at Trump properties on the boardwalk stating this machine returned 98% or 100 % last month. They were pretty meaningless as past results mean nothing.
On a somewhat related note, Golden Nugget AC has video monitors that are constantly counting up and displaying this huge number that is supposedly the amount that the slot machines (or something) had paid out so far that day!!!
Quote: TwoFeathersATLThe answer to your question, for Boz and others, may be "No".
Is that OK with you? feathers
Thanks, but you don't speak for anyone.
But yourself and you're free to input, it's just not relevant.
Quote: ECoasterOn a somewhat related note, Golden Nugget AC has video monitors that are constantly counting up and displaying this huge number that is supposedly the amount that the slot machines (or something) had paid out so far that day!!!
It is truly meaningless. I can say I ate 95% of the pie. But I may have had only one piece and didn't finish it. I didn't say I had 95% of the whole pie.
It may be a true statement that McDonalds has 100% beef hamburgers. The never say what percent of the patty is meat or filler. So the 13% of the quarter pounder may be real 100% beef but the other 67% is chicken feet.
It's all in what's not being said.
Huge amount paid out of some slot machine. Where, corner of the bar? Last one on the left of the VP room?
If people do not understand the proposition and continue to suffer significant losses without informing themselves, that is their problem. Just as they do with other businesses, "acclaimed" experts on whatever and even political candidates, much of the general public puts great belief into what they want to believe, and very few events, usually catastrophic, can budge those deeply held opinions.Quote: sammydvSome machine somewhere on a given day may give that return, when one reads the fine print, if it's there, that it means 'over time' and 'on any random machine, not all the time on all machines'. But 'all the time' is what they want people to believe. It's the wording, or lack of words to condition and misinform people. It's an empty, deceiving advertising bullshit that should go away and even ap's probably have a misconception of this advertising. It's all about long odds, as usual with casinos.
The longer you play the more you lose if a ploppy and that's all they want playing.
Now that is hard to read. And once read makes little sense. And relevance is in the eye of the beholder. And I'm having a hard time seeing you thru the fog ;-)Quote: sammydvThanks, but you don't speak for anyone.
But yourself and you're free to input, it's just not relevant.
Quote: sammydvI consider that a personal attack.
Are you capable of responding to a member without adding your personal quips?
You might consider it one, but I don't believe it qualifies as a personal insult as we administer it here.
Same with your quote of what WoN said. Not a personal insult to find something funny.
Your response to 2F, IMO and FWIW, is the closest anyone in this thread has come to a personal attack. I'm just sayin...be careful when throwing stones.
Beachbanhammer...I'm not happy til you're not happy. (Joke suggesting we all lighten up. )
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics ... but you also need to understand what percentages actually mean.Quote: sammydvIt is truly meaningless. I can say I ate 95% of the pie. But I may have had only one piece and didn't finish it. I didn't say I had 95% of the whole pie.
It may be a true statement that McDonalds has 100% beef hamburgers. The never say what percent of the patty is meat or filler. So the 13% of the quarter pounder may be real 100% beef but the other 67% is chicken feet.
It's all in what's not being said.
Huge amount paid out of some slot machine. Where, corner of the bar? Last one on the left of the VP room?
For example, it cannot be simultaneously true that a McDonalds hamburger is 100% beef and also 13% beef, 67% chicken feet, and 20% dark matter. Those are not equivalent no matter how you say it (or don't say it).
In the case of slot machines, the added wrinkle is variance. A video poker game may have a theoretical payback of 99.54% but the only payouts actually available on the machine are 0%, 100%, 200%, 300%, 80,000%, etc. The 99.54% figure is the theoretical average.
Quote: MathExtremistThere are lies, damned lies, and statistics ...
:)
Quote: MathExtremistThere are lies, damned lies, and statistics ... but you also need to understand what percentages actually mean.
For example, it cannot be simultaneously true that a McDonalds hamburger is 100% beef and also 13% beef, 67% chicken feet, and 20% dark matter. Those are not equivalent no matter how you say it (or don't say it).
In the case of slot machines, the added wrinkle is variance. A video poker game may have a theoretical payback of 99.54% but the only payouts actually available on the machine are 0%, 100%, 200%, 300%, 80,000%, etc. The 99.54% figure is the theoretical average.
Sure it is. 30% of my hamburger patty is 100% beef. That makes more sense correct? The other 70% of the patty is mulch. Our hamburgers are 100% beef is not an absolute statement. Then why doesn't it state anywhere "100% of our hamburg patty's are 100% beef"... because they aren't. It's advertising baloney and tricky semantics that the advertising industry will never never change from doing. And the important word is theoretical which is the only thing the betting world can go on. You don't have a choice.
Thanks for the response.
Quote: beachbumbabsYou might consider it one, but I don't believe it qualifies as a personal insult as we administer it here.
Same with your quote of what WoN said. Not a personal insult to find something funny.
Your response to 2F, IMO and FWIW, is the closest anyone in this thread has come to a personal attack. I'm just sayin...be careful when throwing stones.
Beachbanhammer...I'm not happy til you're not happy. (Joke suggesting we all lighten up. )
Agree with you there, that was definitely a strong retort by me. But somehow, it's odd that the fact that all the comments that caused me to even respond in defense seem to have no meaning. If there were no attacks, why would one make such a comment? I wouldn't have, simple as that.
"Beachbanhammer...I'm not happy til you're not happy."
Not my idea of a joke or humor. Thanks anyways.
No, you'd say "my hamburger is 30% beef and 70% mulch." If you say "my hamburger is 100% beef" then that means there's no mulch in it, or (at least in the US) you're in big trouble.Quote: sammydv30% of my hamburger patty is 100% beef. That makes more sense correct? The other 70% of the patty is mulch.
http://www.snopes.com/business/market/allbeef.asp
Addendum: And I digress, someone laughing at another party's snarky or personal attack at a 3rd party is not proper by any normal decorum.
edited for grammar mistake of -+ thingie.
That's not always true. For example, this was hilarious:Quote: sammydv"Same with your quote of what WoN said. Not a personal insult to find something funny."
Addendum: And I digress, -+someone laughing at another party's snarky or personal attack at a 3rd party is not proper by any normal decorum.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/all-other/25807-2016-election-part-ii/113/#post542618
Quote: MathExtremistNo, you'd say "my hamburger is 30% beef and 70% mulch." If you say "my hamburger is 100% beef" then that means there's no mulch in it, or (at least in the US) you're in big trouble.
http://www.snopes.com/business/market/allbeef.asp
Do you really think McDonalds would admit to the percentage of mulch in their burgers? lol
"Every one of our burgers is made with 100% ground beef. Nothing else is added. No fillers, extenders or preservatives." Absolutely true statement that whatever percentage of beef is 'put into our patties" is 100% and there are no fillers, extenders or preservatives to that percentage of 100% beef. I can find no breakdown of any McD burger into it's components. And I doubt one would. The total mass of any Mcd burger being 100% one meat just isn't feasibly economical. But that's of course just my opinion. And I'm stressing the word games and the open ended way people's perceptions would see it.
Are we far enough off topic now?
Decorum? Is that the little strings of lights I put out on the porch to celebrate the Christmas season? BTW, I left them up this year so I don't have to put them back up in 10 months ;-)Quote: sammydv"Same with your quote of what WoN said. Not a personal insult to find something funny."
Addendum: And I digress, -+someone laughing at another party's snarky or personal attack at a 3rd party is not proper by any normal decorum.
No, that's not how people's perceptions would see it if they understand what percentages mean. Being persistent in your misuse of percentages doesn't make that misuse correct. That's just not how percentages work.Quote: sammydvDo you really think McDonalds would admit to the percentage of mulch in their burgers? lol
"Every one of our burgers is made with 100% ground beef. Nothing else is added. No fillers, extenders or preservatives." Absolutely true statement that whatever percentage of beef is 'put into our patties" is 100% and there are no fillers, extenders or preservatives to that percentage of 100% beef. I can find no breakdown of any McD burger into it's components. And I doubt one would. The total mass of any Mcd burger being 100% one meat just isn't feasibly economical. But that's of course just my opinion. And I'm stressing the word games and the open ended way people's perceptions would see it.
You can argue that a m&m is 100% chocolate, thus the piece of candy is 100% chocolate item.
Would not be true as there is a small hard sugar cover and coloring. In the mcd example, no where do they make the claim there is a full quarter pound of solid beef in the patty. There is fat for one thing. Is fat itself beef?
Or is the flesh the beef?
Same with hamburgers.
Sometimes they misrepresent........
There's a place that on top of their multi game it says over 99% payback(perhaps multiple locations) I couldn't find a game that was over 97%. There's a place that boldly advertises 99.5 % payback. On their website they claimed equivalent to 10% cash back (the guy did the math wrong) At one time years ago the did have a few 99.5% games.
Could someone win a lawsuit if they lost a significant amount if they played believing the false advertising?
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure what the argument is. Up to 98% on a slot means that's over millions of spins the machine will return very close to that amount. It think NV gaming has a testing rule for slots, each machine is different depending on the cycle and variance. It must be within a certain percentage(not sure exact %) after x number of spins. IE blazing 7's set at 98% (lets say after 150k spins)must return 97% to 98%.
Sometimes they misrepresent........
There's a place that on top of their multi game it says over 99% payback(perhaps multiple locations) I couldn't find a game that was over 97%. There's a place that boldly advertises 99.5 % payback. On their website they claimed equivalent to 10% cash back (the guy did the math wrong) At one time years ago the did have a few 99.5% games.
Could someone win a lawsuit if they lost a significant amount if they played believing the false advertising?
When you say x spins does that mean it could pay all at once at any time? If not, how in the world would figure payback over time....so it must be in one sitting maybe. Thanks for the straight up answer.
I think we'd some lawsuits if that was possible.
Quote: MathExtremistFor example, it cannot be simultaneously true that a McDonalds hamburger is 100% beef and also 13% beef, 67% chicken feet, and 20% dark matter. Those are not equivalent no matter how you say it (or don't say it).
Could it be possible to have a hamburger that is 100% beef, 50% water and 5% nitrogen?
If I remember correctly, beef is over 50% water. So my answer to the question is, as a guess, no.Quote: TomGCould it be possible to have a hamburger that is 100% beef, 50% water and 5% nitrogen?
Maybe.
over the course of that many spins. 100 spin is meaningless. The machine could have 5 jackpots in a row the next spin is still worth 98% you might get back nothing or you might hit the jackpot again. But if you were to play lest say 500k spins then you would be close to the 98% it won't be perfect you could be above or below a small amount. Obviously if the game has a lot of lager jackpots like a 10z pay machine it's going to be off more than 500k spins on a double Dimond machine. It's really not much different than playing a video poker machine or if you play on a live blackjack table. It will come close the the payback. Assuming perfect strategy is used on BJ and VP.Quote: sammydvWhen you say x spins does that mean it could pay all at once at any time? If not, how in the world would figure payback over time....so it must be in one sitting maybe. Thanks for the straight up answer.
I think we'd some lawsuits if that was possible.
That's why it's important to understand what percentages mean. 98% is the expected payback, not the probability of anything. For a simple example, consider a coin flip with 50% heads and 50% tails. If heads pays 1-to-1 and tails loses the bet, the expected payback is 100%. The only possible payouts are 0% and 200%, however. In the past three sentences I've used four different percentages: 0%, 50%, 100%, and 200%. But they don't all refer to the same concept and it's really important not to confuse them.Quote: AxelWolfover the course of that many spins. 100 spin is meaningless. The machine could have 5 jackpots in a row the next spin is still worth 98% you might get back nothing or you might hit the jackpot again. But if you were to play lest say 500k spins then you would be close to the 98% it won't be perfect you could be above or below a small amount.
You could probably figure out a way to word it such that the 6'th and 7'th coins in STP/DSTP have over a 100% payback. You could say something like "Play max coins for > 100% payback" (or something along those lines) and technically it'd be true, as the 6'th and 7'th coin in STP/DSTP do give over 100% payback....although all 6 or 7 coins combined would not have a greater than 100% payback. But I think that's definitely stretching it.
Or if you had a $10 BJ game (no higher no lower) that was single deck S17 DAS LS RSA etc. it'd have a greater than 100% payback, yes? But if you charged a $0.25 commission (or $1 or whatever), you could still sort-of claim the BJ game had greater than 100% payback.
Maybe I should start a casino and/or advertising business.
Quote: MathExtremistThat's why it's important to understand what percentages mean. 98% is the expected payback, not the probability of anything. For a simple example, consider a coin flip with 50% heads and 50% tails. If heads pays 1-to-1 and tails loses the bet, the expected payback is 100%. The only possible payouts are 0% and 200%, however. In the past three sentences I've used four different percentages: 0%, 50%, 100%, and 200%. But they don't all refer to the same concept and it's really important not to confuse them.
Well then, from what I get out of all this ultimately is my original thought on casino odds.
A totally made up advertising, selling concept to keep people confused and under the false belief they have a chance to make money at casino. Molded over the decades of course.
Appreciated all the input from everyone.
Quote: billryanJust to be sure , what you got out of everyone explaining how your thinking was wrong is that your thinking is correct?
No. I wasn't concerned about the percentage itself, but how it came to be and who came up with the concept of the need to tell people what I think are deceiving bait and switch at the very least. The percentage stuff was spot on.
And there were some good links to other information.
But I don't think what you're thinking I'm thinking is correct.
Just a thought.
gl
