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July 2nd, 2015 at 7:40:20 PM
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What are the odds of throwing six yo's in a roll???????

get second you pig

July 2nd, 2015 at 8:01:26 PM
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in a row? or in a roll? big difference.. one is easy to calc, the other.. not so much.

July 2nd, 2015 at 8:06:26 PM
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If it's "in a row", then the probability is (1/18)^6 = 1/34,012,224.

If it's "in a roll", I will leave it up to someone smarter than I. (me?)

If it's "in a roll", I will leave it up to someone smarter than I. (me?)

July 3rd, 2015 at 2:26:21 AM
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Remember OD, the post AlanM made about seing 18 yo's in a row? I take it you witnessed 6 in a row?

When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

July 3rd, 2015 at 3:18:00 AM
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Depends on the sample size....ie: how many total rolls are we talking?

Odds of tossing a coin and getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2^2 if you're only looking at two rolls only. If you're looking at a sample of 100 coin tosses, it's gonna be darn close to 100%. I don't know how to calculate that.

I think MustySally calculated something similar in another recent thread.

Edit: http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/22564-what-are-the-chances/#post469412

Odds of tossing a coin and getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2^2 if you're only looking at two rolls only. If you're looking at a sample of 100 coin tosses, it's gonna be darn close to 100%. I don't know how to calculate that.

I think MustySally calculated something similar in another recent thread.

Edit: http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/22564-what-are-the-chances/#post469412

July 3rd, 2015 at 9:16:34 AM
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yes, sorry, I meant in a row.

get second you pig

July 3rd, 2015 at 9:27:14 AM
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exactly for the next 6 rollsQuote:rsactuaryIf it's "in a row", then the probability is (1/18)^6 = 1/34,012,224.

some other roll sizes

1,000,000: 1 in 36.52

100,000: 1 in 360.65

10,000: 1 in 3,603.57

1,000: 1 in 36,192.27

(the run could be more than one time also (2 or more)

added:

average number of rolls to see 6 in a row Yolevens =

18 + 18^2 + 18^3 + 18^4 + 18^5 + 18^6

add it up!

shake it off!

the length of a shooters HANDQuote:rsactuaryIf it's "in a roll", I will leave it up to someone smarter than I. (me?)

not in a roll, a HAND (it has that name looks to be well over hundreds of years,

nows someones wants 2s calls a shooters' HAND somethings else, that IS something else)

each roll is the heartbeat of the game of craps

imo,

a roll is not a collection of rolls including the 1st come out roll and the 7 out roll

i thinks i got it

now

from me excel (a simple 56x56 transition matrix, absorbing kind)

the probability = 1 in 1454.829833 (shooters)

get at least 6 Yolevens in their HAND

in dice rolls that is abouts

12,395.89377

Hmmm

90 rolls per hour

16 hours each day in a casino = 1,440 rolls per day (gives or takes)

times 365 days = 525,600 rolls per year

525,600 / 12,395.89377 = 42 (rdown) times per year this happens at one craps table (gives or takes on average)

should make for a nice side bet i wood (eye wood tiger)

thinks

nows 2s breakfasts

and the funny papers

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart

July 4th, 2015 at 10:54:34 AM
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yes, darn close in a relative wayQuote:RS<snip>

Odds of tossing a coin and getting 2 heads in a row is 1/2^2 if you're only looking at two rolls only.

If you're looking at a sample of 100 coin tosses, it's gonna be darn close to 100%.

I don't know how to calculate that.

a simple way for

no such run of 2 using

the Fibonacci numbers (well, just 1 of them)

and subtracting from 1

it would be this

1 - ( Fibonacci[102] / (2^100) )

a = Fibonacci[102] = 927,372,692,193,078,999,176

b = 2^100 = 1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376

1- all that

or

(b-a)/b

1,267,650,599,300,856,709,303,624,206,200 /

1,267,650,600,228,229,401,496,703,205,376

= 0.9999999992684319385593209529824

i get (rounded) to NOT have a run of 2 in 100 flips

1 in 1,366,926,876.53

from Excel

1 in 1,366,926,814 and change

from

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2F%28Fibonacci%5B102%5D%2F%282%5E100%29%29

expected # of runs = 12.5

the expected number of flips to see 2 in a row = 2^1 + 2^2 = 6

over/under # of runs (median) = 13

Go Angels

watch out for the Fireworks!

over

and

out

Sally

added:

yes, I WON my OVER bet on the Angels (they scored all the runs in the game)

and the chance for a run of length X table in 100 flips

(a popular school question)

run | success in 100 flips |
---|---|

3 | 0.999738255 |

4 | 0.972715042 |

5 | 0.810109599 |

6 | 0.546093619 |

7 | 0.317520387 |

8 | 0.170207962 |

9 | 0.087558927 |

10 | 0.044137229 |

11 | 0.022029266 |

12 | 0.010941678 |

13 | 0.005421525 |

14 | 0.002683033 |

15 | 0.00132692 |

more to add:

for the probability of either a H or a T run of at least 5 in 100 flips

that = 0.97168967

so 1 in 35.3 will not have any such run

this is a different concept from just a H or just a T run in N flips

yes, excel can do this too

I Heart Vi Hart

July 5th, 2015 at 8:52:10 AM
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wayQuote:ontariodealeryes, sorry, I meant in a row.

easier

if one uses 3 standard dice (d6) than 2 (as in SicBo) and

even with 4 dice

can'ts thinks of a fun 4 dice game right now (except for 4 dice Yahtzee. ugh)

you did mention in another post of seeing 6 in a row at the craps table i thinks i remember

seeing is believing

the record with fair dice is, what, 18 in a row at a craps table?

ask Alan M (does he have double vision at times?)

Sally

I Heart Vi Hart