Scenario question

Say you have anywhere from $1 to $100 extra each payday and you decide to gamble with it, the smallest house edge we find would be Bacc, BJ or VP. Considering the upside to these wagers, VP holds the edge for its 4000 Royal Payout creating a possible $200 to $4000 payout whereas turning say $20 or $100 into $4k on Bacc or BJ is a pretty tall request.

The extra is negligible, funds not missed, so where now, does the risk/reward balance out? As well as chance of a good pay out? Say we wager $100 on BJ or Bacc, enjoy ourselves a small amount and walk on average with $200 to $400 if not losing the initial stake. Say instead wager on a good VP pay table, losing the same amount with an upside anywhere from $200 to $4k. If we win $100 its a new wii game/night out some other non essential commodity. If we win say $4k it's immediate life changing as in better TV/Sound system. Or are we better of shooting for long shots with the mediocre amount of pocket change? Example being Wheel of Fortune/Megabucks etc.. where 999,999 time out of 1,000,000 we walk with nothing but with the life changeing Big Score potential? Is craps better with it's epic roll possibilities? Or something along the lines of Three Card Poker with it's manageable house advantage and decent upside with a huge str8 flush hand?

Advantage scenarios aside: where best to place the insignificant funds is a question that has plagued me.. so I ask this forum :-).

did not try to follow all that, but I would say if you gamble quite a bit, you really need to stick to low HE and forget the long shots. If you hardly ever gamble at all, a long shot might be the way to go.

Sounds like you are in category 1 to me though, assuming that in the typical month it's a few hundred risked.

I wouldnt look at 4K as a lot of money to spend. It makes me think you are fairly young. 4K is a lot of money to save for a lot of folks, but it is nothing to spend for anybody. Just my 2 cents.

Of course the proper answer is "what game do you most enjoy"?

I think the best option would be to bank this weekly sum somewhere and then from time to time take the accumulated decent bankroll and gamble at your favorite game with it.

Sure hitting the zillion to one shot sounds great but you are much better off shooting for a decent payout in a game that you enjoy than going up to the wheel of fortune and hoping to win a major sum.

The reason why VP offers the low HE is the very low probability of getting a big hand: 2.2/100,000 of the 4000 payout for the Royal but the contribution of 1.76% of the return. The next highest hand in Deuces Wild is 4 deuces (2 of 10,000) which pays 200 and contributes 4.07% to the return. These are fairly rare events. When these hands do not hit, you are essentially paying a game with a 95% return.

To win $4,000, you are betting $5 / pull. Your action over an hour of play even at the slow rate of 10 seconds per play is $1,800/hour. At a 95% return rate, the cost is about $90/hour, if you don't hit one of the big hands. Over that hour, you've played 360 hands. Even though the game itself has a positive advantage (full pay deuces wild) you have to play long enough to get a big hand. That's volatility. It's quite likely that in a four hour session costing you $360 dollars you'll never see the deuces.


Blackjack and Bacarrat however are low volatility games meaning that over an hour of these games, you're much more likely to come close to the expected values.

I disagree with your choice selection of games given your clearly limited bankroll of an extra 1 to 100 dollars per day. I believe you're better off handicapping via sports betting (MLB, NFL, NBA) than doing the BJ, VP, or Bacc. I exclude horseracing which I think is akin to VP in terms of odds.

Plus, I think you'll have a better time betting on sports and watching the game with a cold one than wasting it on the tables/slots.

This was the result of an argument, and i didn't truly know the answer. And after these replies, heh, still dont know the answer. It boiled down to what was the possible and likelier upside over a small sample size with a limited but replenishable bankroll.

FWIW the player in question has a well rounded portfolio, a decent job, and a few extra bucks he allots to gambling each week. If his 20-100 last 5 minutes so be it he is disciplined enough to walk. If he churns it into $200 to $1k again, he walks. The question was merely which game available provided the most bang for the buck along with stretching it the farthest.

I advised VP for the decent return as well as the more often occurance of a decent payout, but felt it was wrong. As was stated remove the Royal and you have a 95% return which is similar to just plunking it all down on one number of roulette and walking after that spin regardless of outcome. However, this again,more often than not will lack in time played/enjoyment.

Quote: FleaStiff

Of course the proper answer is "what game do you most enjoy"?

Bingo! Gambling is supposed to be entertainment; it is a part of our pursuit of happiness. If you also win then great! If you lost discretionary money, then also fine, as you would have outlaid it for any form of entertainment.

I feel trying to win the life-changing jackpot may never happen in my life, and to search for that is a "love in vain" kind of thing. If I play $100 a week, and have a winning month, I'm a double winner.

And you can have a "Big enough" win on table games via bonus bets. A few months ago driving on 95/515 in Las Vegas, I saw the exit for Sunset Road, where Sunset station is. I had just cashed my paycheck AND I was with my wife, so I said - "Honey, just $100, win or lose...[pweeze!]"

In to Sunset Station we went. I approached a crap table, and the dealers actually waved me off. "It's Ice cold!" they told me (I know the dealers.) Their lone Pai Gow table that was open was filled, so I sat on a Three Card Poker table for Laughs and giggles.

FIRST HAND: A♦K♦Q♦. I had $5-$10-$10 in action, plus a $1 on the progressive. BOOM! $870 win first hand. I Gave my wife $600, and bet $20-$100-$100. SECOND HAND: A pair of 7's win..so I repeat the same BIG bet, then BOOM Again.
THIRD HAND: QcQsQh for $1,200. Three hands' TOTAL= $2,290. I looked at my my wife, I tipped the dealer big, and we colored up to RUN to the cage. We snapped out of the "Let's play some more" mode and into the "Let's get ahead on the mortgage and fix up the House" mode. I was surprised how sobering Four and a half stacks of green chips were...

I don't enjoy Three Card all that much, but we enjoyed the money. If You find an additional $2000 in the snap of your fingers from a $100 table game buy-in, it's all worth it.

$2000 is life changing enough. It was "month-changing" enough for a couple of working stiffs like us. We repeated the Three-card Poker expedition a while later at Joker's wild ("$2 Three card poker" they have.) Got a $2 straight flush after 20 minutes for $80, and went straight to lunch with the Mrs. A day-changing event here.

I no longer calculate and nit-pick the house edge on games, as ANY table game with an aggregate 1% to 4.5% is within range to play. And TCP is a bit high on the HE.

It's YOUR SESSION variance that makes you a winner - if you walk out with the money.

I suggest spreading the windfall proportionately. Use the bulk for low risk/low reward games (if the goal is to extend the session), but put aside a few simoleons (suggested amount: 1%?) for the "Megabucks/Powerball/LCW (Life Changing Win)" type bets. You can't win if you don't play!

Myself, I would play either the blackjack or the VP. $100 may last you long enough if you don't have a streak of bad luck on quarter VP if you stick to Jacks or Better. I'd say it depends on whether you're going weekly with friends or by yourself. I play machines more if I lose my company at the tables it seems.

PaigowDan - Congrats on those 3CP wins. I could only wish to have luck like that. The few times I've played it, my money disappears in a flash (literally).

-B

Quote: boymimbo

The reason why VP offers the low HE is the very low probability of getting a big hand: 2.2/100,000 of the 4000 payout for the Royal but the contribution of 1.76% of the return. The next highest hand in Deuces Wild is 4 deuces (2 of 10,000) which pays 200 and contributes 4.07% to the return. These are fairly rare events. When these hands do not hit, you are essentially paying a game with a 95% return.

To win $4,000, you are betting $5 / pull. Your action over an hour of play even at the slow rate of 10 seconds per play is $1,800/hour. At a 95% return rate, the cost is about $90/hour, if you don't hit one of the big hands. Over that hour, you've played 360 hands. Even though the game itself has a positive advantage (full pay deuces wild) you have to play long enough to get a big hand. That's volatility. It's quite likely that in a four hour session costing you $360 dollars you'll never see the deuces.


Blackjack and Bacarrat however are low volatility games meaning that over an hour of these games, you're much more likely to come close to the expected values.

Video poker is nothing like that of course, and although talking theory helps end conversations when talking to novices, you never, ever play with an expectation of making or giving up X amount/hour. It is all simple luck what happens in the little time someone with $100 would play, or even $4000. The main problem with players is that they do not have the ability to set goals or if they do, to just walk away once those goals are set. That's all that counts in that game, and it is proven over and over again with regular players.

I also agree it is better to save up to have a decent bankroll, a learning mistake I had is going up to the casino with only $100, that gives me 10-20 hands of any single unit bet table game (baccarat, pai gow/poker, blackjack) it also can get wiped away quickly in a machine, play on the bodog practice and see how long $100 lasts compared to maybe $500 or $1,000. As a younger person (24) I would just set a realistic goal of maybe doubling your bankroll then leaving.

See the double bankroll would be if you intended to gamble for profit. Instead our boy is paying bills month/month with some leftover cash he;s seeking to roll into something. Either a new stereo system/ video game system or a night out with women of questionable morals. The goal isnt last as long as possible nor is it hit the big bucks but something in between.. to which i thought video poker offered the best alternative... tho i maybe wrong as it was entirely intuitive and no mathematical basis at all....