Tons of value: A story of advantage play

The story goes that the more EV you have, and a low hand cycle to realize it, the more likely you will profit faster over time. I wrote some threads regarding FPDW and how with a 0.76% edge you will eventually make money over time, but many people don't realize how slim of an edge that really is. The base game for FPDW is 100.76%, but the royal is worth about 2% of the return. This means the drop is 1.24% in between royals, or in about 80 bets you should lose one bet. If you can play a quick 800 hands an hour you should lose about 10 bets if you don't hit a royal, provided you hit every other hand according to the hand cycles. Luckily the variance on FPDW is pretty low so you won't get crushed in between hands that bad.

Take a progressive royal for example. Suppose you found a 9/6 jacks $1 progressive at double the amount for $8000. The base game is 99.54% and including the 2% addition you now have a 101.54% game with a 1.54% advantage. The problem is the royal is a 35k-40k hand cycle, depending on the amount of the progressive and strategy changes. You have the hit the royal to realize the advantage, and the hand cycle is so high even an all nighter won't take it down most of the time.

The reason why I am writing about these "what if" scenarios is even if you have an advantage you can still lose. Mickeycrimm wrote about his exploits on +EV machines and not leaving till it hits because it doesn't matter if you are up or down, whether or not every coin bet has a return of higher then one coin.

I was playing a progressive at XYZ casino (name is not important) which had a remarkable return of 103% on quarters, including mailers and comps. The game was pretty decent but was hard to figure out the right strategy as I am not used to progressive royals. Anyway With the mailers included I was getting about 5% return all day but still had losing days, because the return was tied up in a 40k~ hand cycle pay. Some days I'd drop $500 or more even with 5%.

I've played a $1 9/6 jacks game with $500 cash back every day for $10k-$15k coin in. I made money but probably on the lower end of what was statistically possible. The game was breakeven with mailers and cashback so essentially I got $500 a day for free. This ended in 2 weeks (I wonder why lol) and because I won some drawing they added $1000 on top for a combined win of $8000, but I only won about $3k.

These examples show that it's better to run bad on a BIG edge then to run decent on a slim edge. Lots of people come to Las Vegas for the preceived advantage of video poker on 10/7db or counting cards but remember it's all about big edges and low risk. Unless you can weather the storm of going bust or overplaying your bankroll.

Great post DJ.

Cool story DJ. Lessons illustrated very well in the examples and explanation of games. You left out some letters in XYZ casinos name ;) Some examples of if you want to full time AP nowadays, you really have to be versatile, look at a lot of areas/angles. Unless you're already well established on a massive bankroll, the days of specializing in only vp or blackjack are virtually over for full time play.

Almost every game/play with 3%+ edge I've found also come with very high variance from about 6-125 vs. 1.2 in blackjack, so fractional Kelly betting has left me with downswings about equal to counting cards but the upswings are larger. I still count more than anything else, you can always find a 1-2% edge 24/7 and pretty low variance(of course I know you can get crushed, that's because you're pushing a small edge so hard not because it's high variance. Virtually every card counter misuses the term.) Also all the coolest things I've found have been outside Vegas. Vegas is the land of can always find an ok game and accumulate by getting a large sample size in to me. Surely there's some better stuff that's probably outside of my concentration/skill set. Not that I don't find higher edges here, but it's not as consistent as a couple other places I've found.

Also have to factor in scalability/opportunity cost. I'm a sucker for a high % edge a lot of times even if the total ev is low(the $10 matchplay dilemma). Sometimes I might drive 10 or 15 minutes, and play a 8% edge but it's capped at about $20 ev, and then when I look back I might have cost myself $50 or so by playing it instead of cointing.

Quote: djatc

Luckily the variance on FPDW is pretty low so you won't get crushed in between hands that bad.

comparatively I suppose. I personally dislike the term "low variance" being applied to any video poker game, they are all pretty insanely high with so much ev tied up in the royal as you described. When I first started playing vp after only playing blackjack I found Jacks or Better being called a low variance game rather misleading lol.

Kinda like JG's blog post where he asks if we can stop using the word "juicy" to describe any counting game, although I must say I'm more than a little bit tired of his constant condescending tone to counters even if I've learned a good deal from his writing.

The short term advantages I exploit don't have longshot frequencies. These days the longest frequency I'm dealing with is 1551. The shortest is 36.

Quote: mcallister3200

comparatively I suppose. I personally dislike the term "low variance" being applied to any video poker game, they are all pretty insanely high with so much ev tied up in the royal as you described. When I first started playing vp after only playing blackjack I found Jacks or Better being called a low variance game rather misleading lol.

Kinda like JG's blog post where he asks if we can stop using the word "juicy" to describe any counting game, although I must say I'm more than a little bit tired of his constant condescending tone to counters even if I've learned a good deal from his writing.

I see it as a trade between being able to put more money out there on a low variance game like blackjack, as to slots/VP where you can get a HUGE advantage but the bet amounts are usually very low. Me personally I prefer not to be told I can't play anymore blackjack so I like the machines as I can bang away all day as long as I have an advantage. I've only been told once no more action on a slot machine..... a SLOT MACHINE! The casino was pretty sweaty lol.

The only "back offs" I've received were self inflicted. Usually I call over a host and say I'm hungry feed me, or the advantage disappears. Machines work better for me since I always enjoyed playing video games and it's like playing an extremely complex video game, not so much the content but the math behind whether or not I have an advantage.

Of course you can have an enormous advantage and still lose.... Like the time we had a 30-50% win and still lost... but that's for another time.

For sure, I lost 135 units on a very high variance play with over 30% edge a few weeks back, I thought I knew how crazy the swings were but was still awestruck when it actually happened. I agree about just kinda being able to sit back and grind a machine, my current skill set just isn't quite as developed there, plus I have a wrist issue from previous jobs so a longer play I slow down or need more breaks. Only have had one machine backoff, was a bit surprised when it happened as I know it's uncommon and it was strange. Don't know why they didn't just no mail or deactivate the card, slot supervisor pulled my damn card out of the machine as I was playing and said I was ineligible for the promo and card benefits.

Quote: mickeycrimm

The short term advantages I exploit don't have longshot frequencies. These days the longest frequency I'm dealing with is 1551. The shortest is 36.

5 spots are 1551? I'v been off by 1 I guess.

most cycles you have went on 5 spots?

What % are you getting on average when you attack the 5 spot at what size bet? how many plays per day average?

Quote: mcallister3200

For sure, I lost 135 units on a very high variance play with over 30% edge a few weeks back, I thought I knew how crazy the swings were but was still awestruck when it actually happened. I agree about just kinda being able to sit back and grind a machine, my current skill set just isn't quite as developed there, plus I have a wrist issue from previous jobs so a longer play I slow down or need more breaks. Only have had one machine backoff, was a bit surprised when it happened as I know it's uncommon and it was strange. Don't know why they didn't just no mail or deactivate the card, slot supervisor pulled my damn card out of the machine as I was playing and said I was ineligible for the promo and card benefits.

Table game 30% advantage ? Was the advantage on a long shot or side bet? hoe many hands/plays did you get out, unit size?


Can you tell us where you got backed off the VP so others can be cautious?

If not publicly PM thats something APs should share IMO.

Quote: djatc

I see it as a trade between being able to put more money out there on a low variance game like blackjack, as to slots/VP where you can get a HUGE advantage but the bet amounts are usually very low. Me personally I prefer not to be told I can't play anymore blackjack so I like the machines as I can bang away all day as long as I have an advantage. I've only been told once no more action on a slot machine..... a SLOT MACHINE! The casino was pretty sweaty lol.

The only "back offs" I've received were self inflicted. Usually I call over a host and say I'm hungry feed me, or the advantage disappears. Machines work better for me since I always enjoyed playing video games and it's like playing an extremely complex video game, not so much the content but the math behind whether or not I have an advantage.

Of course you can have an enormous advantage and still lose.... Like the time we had a 30-50% win and still lost... but that's for another time.

I've been backed off from craps.

You know how casinos will come up to you and say "no more blackjack, but you're welcome to play craps?" Well, if you take them up on their offer apparently you're not welcome at craps either.

Quote: mcallister3200

slot supervisor pulled my damn card out of the machine as I was playing and said I was ineligible for the promo and card benefits.

Same thing happened to me once, too!