Oy Vey!
His reasoning: if he rolls a 6 with die A, then the lowest possible roll once he throws die B is a 7 and his odds of hitting a 12 are 1 in 6. Right. But since the odds of rolling a 6 with die A were also 1 in 6, the the odds of rolling a 12 are still 1 in 36 (1/6*1/6). He didn't seem to be able to grasp that.
I made the furhter mistake of saying "of course, if you were allowed to roll one die and then place bets, then the odds for that bet would be different compared with placing the bets before any roll." Try taking that back! All he heard was "of course the odds would be different."
We argued. I demonstrated using dice. I set up a simlpe RNG on a spreadsheet. He still believes his odds of winning at craps would be better if he could roll the dice separately. And of course casinos make you roll the dice together in order to get your money.
My head still hurts.
Try this:
Ask him the odds of rolling a total of 5, if he rolls them one at a time, and the first die shows a 5.
Then ask him the odds of rolling a total of 2, 3, 11 or 12 if the first die is either 3 or 4.
Either question should make his head hurt. He might not see the light, but I think he'll feel the pain.
Quote: Nareed
We argued. I demonstrated using dice. I set up a simlpe RNG on a spreadsheet. He still believes his odds of winning at craps would be better if he could roll the dice separately. And of course casinos make you roll the dice together in order to get your money.
Well, computers are not able to produce truly random results, because they were programmed by a human. Therefore your demonstration is obviously a hoax. At least that's what tuttigym told me.
Quote: DJTeddyBearEither question should make his head hurt. He might not see the light, but I think he'll feel the pain.
It might just make his eyes glaze over.
I do miss playing poker with him and two others every week. He was so easy to beat.
What are your odds when the Boxman says: Go ahead and shoot, your point is 15.
Quote: FleaStiffHow about when you try to switch in crooked dice and while throwing them you also drop one of the two house dice?
What are your odds when the Boxman says: Go ahead and shoot, your point is 15.
More points is more chances!
I swear I could feel my head shrink when I thought that! :P
Quote: rdw4potusIt's got to be easier to set one die than two, right? If you could roll them one at a time, couldn't you more easily manipulate the value of the total roll?
I think it should be. On the other hand you'd need two successful throws rather than one.
It depends. Does he return two dice or three?Quote: FleaStiffHow about when you try to switch in crooked dice and while throwing them you also drop one of the two house dice?
What are your odds when the Boxman says: Go ahead and shoot, your point is 15.
I know, I know, some of you are now scratching your heads since you all know that the Jaguars have never even played in a superbowl.
However, my reasoning is very simple. First of all, the odds I'm getting are tremendous. In one case, it was 1,000,000 to 1!
Second of all, anything is possible. It's my belief that after halftime, and the second half kickoff, the Jaguars just come running onto the field. The two other teams and the referees are so stunned by this that the Jaguars are able to just grab the ball and start scoring touchdowns. By the time anybody figures anything out, time has run out, and the Jaguars have scored so many points that they are given the trophy.
How does this compare to your friend? At the beginning of the season, the odds of the Jaguars winning the superbowl might be like 500 to 1. By the time the two teams who are playing in the superbowl are known, then the odds are 1,000,000 to 1. This is the same thing he thinks is the difference between rolling the dice together and rolling them one at a time.
Tell your friend that you'll play the house, and he can roll the dice. He can roll them two at a time, or one at a time, at his choice. You'll pay any winnings and collect his losings. See if he figures it out when in the long run, he's as broke as I am betting on the Jaguars to win the superbowl.
Quote: konceptumTell your friend that you'll play the house, and he can roll the dice. He can roll them two at a time, or one at a time, at his choice. You'll pay any winnings and collect his losings. See if he figures it out when in the long run, he's as broke as I am betting on the Jaguars to win the superbowl.
It would be kinder, and perhaps slightly less illegal, to just knock him unconscious and take his wallet. Faster, too....
Next Superbowl I'd be willing to take a bet from you for the Jaguars to win, provided they don't make it to the big game. I'd give you odds of infinity for 1, and I'll take a US $10,000 minimum :P (BTW I don't really mean it).
Quote: konceptumIf it helps, you can compare your friend to me. Every year, for the past 5 years, I have bet very good money on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the superbowl. I place these bets on the day before the superbowl is played.
I thought you meant for the following year!
Now THAT'S funny!Quote: konceptumFirst of all, the odds I'm getting are tremendous. In one case, it was 1,000,000 to 1!
Second of all, anything is possible....
Quote: DJTeddyBearNow THAT'S funny!
Yes, ti is. For a moment I could visualize Chris Farley saying "Da Jags."
Quote: mipletWell you could roll one die first. Say a 1. Your point is 8, so you know that 1 aint going to cut it, so when you throw the second die, you attempt to hit the first one to try and get it to roll to a differant number.
BRILLIANT!
