RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:00:48 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

So if you have a 100% edge, what does that
mean, exactly.



It means, in the long run, you expect to be ahead 100% of your action. You can win 1 unit every round. You can win 3 units 50% of the time and lose 1 unit 50% of the time (after 2 rounds, that's 2 units). Or 80% chance to push, 10% chance to lose 1, and 10% chance to win 11. Or a 99% chance to lose $1 and 1% chance to win $199 (or something like that).
RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:04:25 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

It means on average you can expect to double your money.

win / bet * p(win) * 100 = edge

The most simple example would be that you win even money on every single bet you make. (1 / 1 * 1 * 100 = 100%)

Another simple example would be you win 2:1 with a 50% chance of winning. (2/1 * .5 * 100 = 100%)



Huh?

2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.

Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.
wudged
wudged
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:06:50 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Huh?

2:1 on a 50/50 game isn't a 100% edge. You need 3:1.

Half the time you win +2, half the time you lose -1. After two rounds, you're at at +1 (net), which is 1 unit / 2 rounds = 0.5 or 50% edge.



Yea I realized that after posting and went back and edited it.
RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:08:41 PM permalink
Quote: HughJass

It means that your expected value will be two units for every unit that you bet.



No. It means your expected value is 1 unit for every unit that you but (ie: 100% = 1.0).
darkoz
darkoz 
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:15:38 PM permalink
Okay, I used the word edge while the OP used the word advantage.

Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?

For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!

However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.

I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.
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EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:17:32 PM permalink
I always thought of a 100% edge this way.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:23:05 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Okay, I used the word edge while the OP used the word advantage.

Is it safe to say there is a difference between mathematical advantage and for lack of a better term, AP advantage?

For example, a mathematical advantage where you lose one unit on a fifty-fifty prop but win 5 units would be a 5:1 or 250% advantage MATHEMATICALLY!

However if an AP has an advantage where they can never lose, (lets say for example those two guys who discovered the Game King glitch and took half a million dollars) wouldn't that be considered a 100% edge (they can never lose) -- an AP advantage.

I only throw this out there because mathematicians speak a slightly different form of English.



5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.

I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.

I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.

You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.

Quote: EvenBob

I always thought of a 100% edge this way.
Say you found a way to know what the next
outcome is on every wager. This gives
you a 100% edge, you can't lose.



If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.

If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.
darkoz
darkoz 
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:39:02 PM permalink
Quote: RS

5:1 on a 50/50 game would be a 200% advantage/edge. Advantage and edge are interchangeable.

I don't know what you mean by "mathematical vs AP" advantage.

I think what you're wondering about is VARIANCE -- or in other words, the "swings". Of course, with a 5:1 payout on a 50/50 game and a 200% edge, you aren't winning 2 units every round. Sometimes you win 5, sometimes you lose 1.

You're not going to win every session. You don't need to win every session. You don't even need to win more than half. You just gotta win more money than you lose.



If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.

If you always win (1:1), your variance is going to be 0 -- the difference between your EV and actual result is 0.



Okay, you're speaking a different language.

Mathemat-english.

I only speak English
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
RS
RS
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October 13th, 2014 at 12:43:02 PM permalink
You offer me a game. It's a coin flip. Heads I win $1, tails I lose $1.

What's my advantage? What's my edge? If you said 0, you're correct, I have no advantage!

However, there is variance.

My EV (Expected Value) is like edge/advantage, but is expressed as a dollar amount. My advantage is 0%. My EV is $0. I expect to win $0 per round.

However, my ACTUAL RESULTS are not going to be $0 / round....I must either win $1 or lose $1. It is impossible to break even in a given round. Thus: Variance.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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October 13th, 2014 at 2:05:55 PM permalink
Quote: RS


If it's an even money payout (ie: coin flip and pays 1:1, then you'd have a 100% edge, but only because you're winning 1 unit per unit wagered, not because you always win / never lose.
.



What does 1:1 have to do with it. If you
know the outcome in advance, you have
a 100% edge no matter what the odds of
the bet are.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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