LVJackal
LVJackal
Joined: Jun 1, 2010
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 66
June 1st, 2010 at 9:39:54 PM permalink
LamKram "Until I actually played with the numbers, I didn't appreciate how the variability of actual win or loss is much, much greater than the "theoretical" loss even after playing hundreds of hands. In the example I gave above of playing 300 hands of blackjack at $100 a hand, the expected loss is $150. However, 70% of the time (that is, plus or minus one standard deviation), the player could end up anywhere from $1580 ahead to $1880 behind. Compare that to a card counter with a 1% advantage. His expected win in the same situation is $300, but 70% of the time he will actually be between $2030 ahead and $1430 behind. In other words, even after a few hundred hands, you cannot tell whether someone was counting cards or not by simply looking at his stack of chips. Only after tens of thousands of hands will the variance be small enough compared to the theoretical that a card counter has an obvious advantage over a basic strategy player.

Of course, what this also means is that if you count cards for only a few hundred hands, there is still a good chance you'll lose money."

This leads exactly to the big team approach to card counting. The larger the sample size the more likely it is to reach the theoretical. Just as a well rolled casino won't sweat the variance, instead they care more for hands/hour. As over a large enough sample of trials the variance will even out.
iamthepush
iamthepush
Joined: May 26, 2010
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
June 6th, 2010 at 9:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: gambler

However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.



Why is that? It's your money.

One time I was playing BJ and bought in for 200 and was leaving with about 700 mostly green chips. I got up and started putting them in my pockets and the dealer asked if I wanted to color up. I said no thanks (not really sure why) packed up and moved to the next game or the cage.

The casinos have no problem with taking your money and they should know that the feeling is mutual.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 177
  • Posts: 10088
June 7th, 2010 at 5:34:26 AM permalink
Quote: iamthepush

Quote: gambler

However, black chips and higher are closely counted by the staff, so I would not think to drop those in my pocket.

Why is that? It's your money.

Because the staff would notice a missing black chip.

By removing greens, he makes his stack in the rail look smaller, which may enable the floor person to mistakenly assume he lost it thru higher average bets. So the simple trick of pocketing greens instead of blacks, might help his comp rating.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗

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