Trip east (non gambling)
First, let me emphasis how much I hate air travel. The whole deal, airport security, the waits, the travel, the complications of traveling with funds, which I don't do. (I use my bank as my money mule). Now, my playing and life partner (for lack of a better term) is not a small person. He goes about 240-250lbs. Now I like the window seat on the plane. I love looking out the window. So for me to have the window seat in coach travel, my partner is resigned to the middle seat, which as a bigger guy, doesn't really work all that well. He would do better at either the window or aisle seat.
So this is the first trip, we splurged and didn't fly coach, which means two seats on each side of the aisle instead of 3. This is perfect for us. I get my window seat and he is on the aisle with no worries of who we are seated next to. The little bit of extra room makes all the difference in the world. Of course there is a price to pay for this and that part completely goes against my 'thriftiness' values, but I think it is worth it. I think this will be our new regular routine. Hey....I'm worth it.:-) (even during a down year).
Ok, so one of the things on the agenda and the reason our spring trip is a little later than usual is that my partners niece was getting married. This presented some challenges as my partner wanted to be very discrete. No dancing together or anything like that. I danced up a storm with a variety of female partners, whom I didn't know. I am not a romantic type person, but I would have enjoyed maybe a slow dance with my partner and friend, but whatever.
Then there were the issue of his 3 grown sons, two who are just about my age, one slightly older. I have met them before, but don't really know them. They seemed unfriendly and uncomfortable with our situation. Whatever. I just made the best of the situation and tried to remain drama free. But in the end, I feel a little deprived of the normalcy that other people have. I don't know why life in 2014 has to be that way.
Weather: I left Vegas after a warm spell of 4-5 105+ degree days, and every day since when I checked Vegas weather it has been much cooler, a few days even in the 80's. I would have preferred Vegas was burning at 112 during my absence. lol. Here in pa, there were some rainy days, which of course, I am not used to. First 3 days were completely overcast and rainy. I have forgotten how depressing that is. In Vegas, even a rare rainy day consists of only a couple hours (or minutes) of rain. We just don't have several days in a row without seeing the sun. I don't know how folks in the pacific northwest do it.
Well, I guess that's it for now. Gambling has been nothing special. I am racking up some EV on the better than average Pa games, but that doesn't seem to be turning into any great profits and just about half way through the year, my results are far below expectation for time played. (less than 50%). I may post more on gambling next week.
peace all.
KJ
I can not imagine how you feel when you have to hide things. Hopefully some day soon it won't be that way.
A few years ago we flew and I wanted to fly with 2 seats like you did but the cost was super high. We ended up buying 3 seats at a good deal and had the same luxury at half the price.
Quote: GWAE
A few years ago we flew and I wanted to fly with 2 seats like you did but the cost was super high. We ended up buying 3 seats at a good deal and had the same luxury at half the price.
You know what, GWAE, this is something that never occurred to me. Certainly something to think about. :)
Quote: kewljYou know what, GWAE, this is something that never occurred to me. Certainly something to think about. :)
if you ever do that, make sure you check in all 3 tickets. If you don't then they could give the seat away.
For me, the extra 250 was well worth the money for 9 hours of comfort (both ways).
When it comes to the family of a significant other, no one has normalcy. I know your challenge is not the same, but don't be too envious.Quote: kewljThen there were the issue of his 3 grown sons, two who are just about my age, one slightly older. I have met them before, but don't really know them. They seemed unfriendly and uncomfortable with our situation. Whatever. I just made the best of the situation and tried to remain drama free. But in the end, I feel a little deprived of the normalcy that other people have. I don't know why life in 2014 has to be that way.
Quote: GWAEif you ever do that, make sure you check in all 3 tickets. If you don't then they could give the seat away.
For me, the extra 250 was well worth the money for 9 hours of comfort (both ways).
We flew to Florida last week on Jet Blue. For those who don't know they have a few aisles with extra leg room and those seats were were selling for an extra $40. Halfway through the flight people just helped themselves.
Quote: IbeatyouracesOn my flight to Vegas back in 2011, the flight was less than half full. It ended up being "sit wherever you want."
long time ago I went to Vegas with girlfriend. Whenever I booked the flight it was mostly full. This was one of the small planes with 1 seat on 1 side and 2 on the other. I had to book them apart so I booked 1 on the single side and the aisle seat next to it. I told her I was taking the single seat since I was bigger. When people got on the plane it was almost completely full EXCEPT the seat next to her. She ended up with 2 seats and she wouldn't switch me.
I look forward to your gambling report if you choose to post it. I live in the area that you are visiting and there are some very good games around if you have the time to search them out. Hopefully you have found them and can take advantage while visiting.
Safe travels,
Slack
Quote: kewlj
Then there were the issue of his 3 grown sons, two who are just about my age, one slightly older. I have met them before, but don't really know them. They seemed unfriendly and uncomfortable with our situation. Whatever. I just made the best of the situation and tried to remain drama free. But in the end, I feel a little deprived of the normalcy that other people have. I don't know why life in 2014 has to be that way.
KJ
Sorry to hear about your situation. It seems like your partner is a little secretive about his lifestyle. I hope that someday he feels confident enough to be able to live the lifestyle he wants in front of everyone! Hopefully the rest of your trip is good. Safe travels home
Quote: kewljWell, I guess that's it for now. Gambling has been nothing special. I am racking up some EV on the better than average Pa games, but that doesn't seem to be turning into any great profits and just about half way through the year, my results are far below expectation for time played. (less than 50%). I may post more on gambling next week.
You've mentioned before that you keep track of your total EV. How do you determine this? If there is a game that you know you are beating, but you don't play very often (eg, the PA game with its liberal rules) do you sim it after the fact, or just ballpark your EV, or what?
I think that this is a really good idea (keeping track of total EV) and I'd like to do it, but often I find that I don't know exactly what my edge is.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou've mentioned before that you keep track of your total EV. How do you determine this? If there is a game that you know you are beating, but you don't play very often (eg, the PA game with its liberal rules) do you sim it after the fact, or just ballpark your EV, or what?
I think that this is a really good idea (keeping track of total EV) and I'd like to do it, but often I find that I don't know exactly what my edge is.
I have simmed all the common games that I play for different rules and penetrations and have come up with a rounded number of EV for each 100/round, then converted to EV per round for each of the different games and penetrations. Then when I sit down for a session I already have a EV per round number and it is just a matter of multiplying by the number of rounds that I played for that session, which I estimate by dividing by the 2.75 cards per player (including dealer) per round number.
Example: I am playing a certain 6 deck game, which I have simmed in advance that says my EV per hand is 87 cents per round, based on my spread, rules and penetration. The penetration is a very mediocre and common 75% or 4.5 of 6 decks. so that is 234 cards dealt before shuffle. There are two players and the dealer. @ 2.75 cards per round, that is 8.25 cards per round average, meaning the cut card will come out during the 29th round. So one time through the shoe is 29 rounds X 87 cents per round is 25.23 in EV for a session that consisted of one time through the shoe or 29 rounds. If I play part of a shoe I just estimate as accurate as I can.
In the end it's all an estimation, but over I think it comes fairly close over time (with a big enough sample size). I always tend to slightly underestimate (error on the side of caution).
I know I made this whole process sound more complicated than it is. It all happens very quickly with a little repetition.
Quote: kewljI have simmed all the common games that I play for different rules and penetrations and have come up with a rounded number of EV for each 100/round, then converted to EV per round for each of the different games and penetrations. Then when I sit down for a session I already have a EV per round number and it is just a matter of multiplying by the number of rounds that I played for that session, which I estimate by dividing by the 2.75 cards per player (including dealer) per round number.
Example: I am playing a certain 6 deck game, which I have simmed in advance that says my EV per hand is 87 cents per round, based on my spread, rules and penetration. The penetration is a very mediocre and common 75% or 4.5 of 6 decks. so that is 234 cards dealt before shuffle. There are two players and the dealer. @ 2.75 cards per round, that is 8.25 cards per round average, meaning the cut card will come out during the 29th round. So one time through the shoe is 29 rounds X 87 cents per round is 25.23 in EV for a session that consisted of one time through the shoe or 29 rounds. If I play part of a shoe I just estimate as accurate as I can.
In the end it's all an estimation, but over I think it comes fairly close over time (with a big enough sample size). I always tend to slightly underestimate (error on the side of caution).
I know I made this whole process sound more complicated than it is. It all happens very quickly with a little repetition.
Pardner, thanks for showing the math on EV per shoe. It's not complicated for me after I put your formula on Excel like this:
Cards Dealer& #Rounds EV$
EV$ Dealt #Players
Per Hand
$0.87 2.75 3 *29 $25.23
*(312 X 75%Pen) / (2.75X3)=29 rounds before shuffling
$0.87X29=$25.23 EV per shoe
To me, the only complication is to compute the $0.87 EV per round. So where do I buy the software to sim the games and squeeze out an EV per round? A link, please?
Quote: FortalezoPardner, thanks for showing the math on EV per shoe. It's not complicated for me after I put your formula on Excel like this:
Cards Dealer& #Rounds EV$
EV$ Dealt #Players
Per Hand
$0.87 2.75 3 *29 $25.23
*(312 X 75%Pen) / (2.75X3)=29 rounds before shuffling
$0.87X29=$25.23 EV per shoe
To me, the only complication is to compute the $0.87 EV per round. So where do I buy the software to sim the games and squeeze out an EV per round? A link, please?
qfit.com
It's called CVCX. It can generate an optimal bet ramp given what your RISK/kelly % and bankroll. Or you can input your own. Tells you hourly EV, EV per round, standard deviation/variance, TC frequencies.....and a bunch'a other stuff.
You can also get CVData, which is a more advanced version of CVCX and you can do very personalized stuff on it....like generate indices, side counts & side bets, and just about anything else you can imagine.
@KJ, are you gonna post your PA trip report?
Quote: RSQuote: FortalezoPardner, thanks for showing the math on EV per shoe. It's not complicated for me after I put your formula on Excel like this:
Cards Dealer& #Rounds EV$
EV$ Dealt #Players
Per Hand
$0.87 2.75 3 *29 $25.23
*(312 X 75%Pen) / (2.75X3)=29 rounds before shuffling
$0.87X29=$25.23 EV per shoe
To me, the only complication is to compute the $0.87 EV per round. So where do I buy the software to sim the games and squeeze out an EV per round? A link, please?
qfit.com
It's called CVCX. It can generate an optimal bet ramp given what your RISK/kelly % and bankroll. Or you can input your own. Tells you hourly EV, EV per round, standard deviation/variance, TC frequencies.....and a bunch'a other stuff.
You can also get CVData, which is a more advanced version of CVCX and you can do very personalized stuff on it....like generate indices, side counts & side bets, and just about anything else you can imagine.
@KJ, are you gonna post your PA trip report?
Thanks for your reply. I'll look into your recommendations. Meanwhile, will you compute an EV per round for the bj games below, please?
6 deckers
8 tables open with dealers
Bj Rules:
Min Pen DAS RSA
Max Soft 17 Surrender
$25 $1,000 83% Stand Yes Yes Yes
6 deckers
8 tables open with dealers
Bj Rules:
Min Pen DAS RSA
Max Soft 17 Surrender
$50 $3,000 83% Stand Yes Yes Yes
6 deckers
5 tables open with dealers
Bj Rules:
Min Pen DAS RSA
Max Soft 17 Surrender
$100 $5,000 83% Stand Yes Yes Yes
2 deckers
10 tables open with dealers
Bj Rules:
Min Pen DAS RSA
Max Soft 17 Surrender
$50 $1,000 50% Stand Yes Yes Yes
Update @9:33pm on 6/25/2014: I've attempted to log onto Qfit.com, but I couldn't because Google-Chrome sez: "This webpage is not available."
2nd update: @1pm on 6/27/2014: I've repeatedly attempted to log onto Qfit.com, but I couldn't because Google-Chrome sez again: "This webpage is not available." Has Qfit.com been under attacked by hackers or by jealous counter-catchers?
Quote: FortalezoPardner, thanks for showing the math on EV per shoe. It's not complicated for me after I put your formula on Excel like this:
To me, the only complication is to compute the $0.87 EV per round. So where do I buy the software to sim the games and squeeze out an EV per round? A link, please?
I too used to figure EV by shoe. Earlier in my career, I tried doing so by shoe, as well as by time (hour). Both had drawbacks for me.
All shoes are NOT created equal. If I play a 6 deck shoe with 3 other players, I am likely to get about 17 rounds per shoe and realistically only the final 5-6 rounds or so (last 1/3 of shoe) have the potential for a real strong count, which is where my advantage really kicks in. If I play the same game heads up, I will get more in the neighborhood of 43 rounds per shoe, with that strong count potential in the neighborhood of 12-14 rounds. How can you have one number for EV that says these games generate the same EV?
Time didn't work for me either. Because I play very short sessions, exiting aggressively, I had all these small segments of time to deal with. 7 minutes here, 22 minutes there, 14 minutes at another place. I have played 'sessions' as short as a minute...Lol. Count goes negative 12 after two rounds, I am looking for another table. :)
In the end, I decided what ever method you use for tracking results, it all boils down to rounds played, so that is what I track, by estimation as best I can.
Quote: RS
@KJ, are you gonna post your PA trip report?
I have sort of had second thoughts about this. I don't think the gambling portion of my TR would be too interesting for most. Part of what I enjoy about other member's Vegas TR's is their experiences throughout Vegas. My partner and I don't engage in our secondary AP technique of bonus chasing (machine play) on our trips, because we wouldn't be there to play the mailer bonuses that such play would generate. So all I would have to talk about is blackjack play and frankly, discussing this in any sort of detail just wouldn't be beneficial to me. I'll give you an example: My partner and I engage in quite a bit of my own unique version of call-in play, which we don't risk doing at our local stores. This really bumps up our EV significantly, but posting any sort of details, would be very detrimental.
But I do have a couple vague thoughts about Pa games. I moved from Pa just about the time they got table games. Casinos had been open for a few years, but with machine games only. So my time in Pa and the early part of my career, consisted mostly of battling the crappy games of Atlantic City. So when Pa came out with Table games, I was pretty jealous of the rules. Maybe the best rules in the country, regulated by the state. But really those rules are offset by two things. Crowed conditions, which makes wonging in and out difficult and slows down the game (slow game = Less EV), And second, spread out casinos. My hit and run style doesn't translate at all to Pa. In Vegas, I hit a casino with a couple short sessions at different tables and/or pits and am off to the next casino a couple minutes away. Pa casinos are not a couple minutes away, so I am forced to alter my attack and play longer.
Now I am going to get specific about one store in Pa....Valley Forge Casino, mostly because I have now given up on this place. This place is horrendous as far as heat goes. I would say the worst I have played and that includes notoriously sweaty El Cortez and South Point in Vegas. There was a rumor that the casino manager actually worked at El Cortez a few years back. I never got confirmation of that, but it wouldn't surprise me and would explain some things. They also are very active contributors of OSN, but to date, this has not been a problem for me. I think maybe they are overactive and other stores might not take them seriously.....like the boy who cried wolf.
I have played at Valley Forge 11 times now in the past few years since they opened and have been backed of 7 of those times. I am a guy who averages about 6 backoffs per year in Vegas, playing 80 thousand rounds per year, so I am generally not too bad at detecting heat and avoiding backoffs. But it is pretty hard to detect heat when you are backed off after a single round as happened this trip. Lol. Here is a little history: Last year on my spring trip, I hit VF pretty good with a couple sizable wins. Having been backed off 6 times previously, I expected trouble when I returned last fall, but played 2 times without incident. No sizable wins or losses. Nothing extraordinary about the sessions. Fast forward to this trip. I buy in, play a single round and then get the tap. I guess someone (maybe facial recognition) recognized my pretty face.
I also had one of my stranger backoffs at VF two years ago. It wasn't technically a backoff, but I don't know what else to call it. It was my third visit of the trip. I had been backed off on my previous visit. Upon entering, I seemed to 'acquire' my own private security detail consisting of a young security guy of about 18. He followed 3 steps behind me, every step of my visit. He was polite enough not to follow me into the men's room, but waited outside, like a puppy dog. Of course I realized 30 seconds into this visit that I would not be allowed to play blackjack, but stayed for well over an hour just running this young fellow all over the small casino for the fun of it.
So, that's about it. Not what I promised....but the best that I can do, or am willing to do. My apologies.
Well, there's a "non-gambling" disclaimer in the title so you got more than promised IMO.Quote: GWAEthis is possibly the worst trip report thread ever. Why start a thread and then decide not to report anything?
Quote: GWAEthis is possibly the worst trip report thread ever.
you got the Valley Forge story and that was pretty interesting
Quote: odiousgambityou got the Valley Forge story and that was pretty interesting
ok fine, worst ever was an exaggeration. I just had so much hope for the thread because you don't always get APs putting trip reports out there. I did find the VF part interesting as well but I yearn for the details.
Quote: GWAEok fine, worst ever was an exaggeration. I just had so much hope for the thread because you don't always get APs putting trip reports out there. I did find the VF part interesting as well but I yearn for the details.
As entertaining as an aceofspades type story is, most APs are not going to say a lot about themselves. Tempting as it may be to relate some of my experiences, I hold back knowing that this and other sites are regularly visited by casino personnel. I have made some very vague posts only to wonder in hindsight if I divulged too much. Thankfully, posts can be edited.
I have identified a couple of people solely on what they've posted here. I won't say who even privately.
Quote: 1BBAs entertaining as an aceofspades type story is, most APs are not going to say a lot about themselves. Tempting as it may be to relate some of my experiences, I hold back knowing that this and other sites are regularly visited by casino personnel. I have made some very vague posts only to wonder in hindsight if I divulged too much. Thankfully, posts can be edited.
I have identified a couple of people solely on what they've posted here. I won't say who even privately.
I know this, that is exactly why there was so much promise at the start of this thread. People like me who gamble recreationally love to hear stories like Mickey always gives. I would love to live the life of some of you. Well at least the sensationalized dream of the life.
Quote: IbeatyouracesIts not hard. It just takes a little learning, desire and dedication, and most importantly, discipline.
that last part is the toughest part. This morning I was at a place where there was a must hit by 1k. It was at 984 yesterday but I passed on it. This morning it was at 995 but someone was playing it. I walked around and came back 15 min later. The person was still playing but only had $30 in the machine. I wanted to wait her out to see if she would put more in. Instead of going outside or sitting in a chair I ended up playing VP and losing $60 (not a +ev machine). I went back and the person put in another $100. It was evident that she was not leaving the machine but I lost $60 in the mean time. A disciplined person wouldn't have lost that $60.
>"... I am a guy who averages about 6 backoffs per year in Vegas, playing 80 thousand rounds per year,
> so I am generally not too bad at detecting heat and avoiding backoffs.
How many hours is 80,000 per year?
And is it 80,000 hands per year or shoes per year?
Quote: FleaStiffFine line between "machine hogger" and "I'm hogging just because it's close to hitting today".
>"... I am a guy who averages about 6 backoffs per year in Vegas, playing 80 thousand rounds per year,
> so I am generally not too bad at detecting heat and avoiding backoffs.
How many hours is 80,000 per year?
And is it 80,000 hands per year or shoes per year?
That would be hands. At 100 hands per hour that would be 800 hours a year but it's not that simple. Sometimes you'll be playing over 250 hands per hour and other times less than 90. Add the combination of single and double deck games along with shoe games and it becomes difficult to estimate. A full table at a shoe game drops the hands per hour down to 60 or worse and we haven't mentioned side bets. Don't forget sitting out hands. Some count them and some don't.
I have played 1000 hours a year many years.
Quote: 1BB
I have played 1000 hours a year many years.
Wow, that's a lot of play for someone that likes to play short sessions at a property.
Quote: GWAEthis is possibly the worst trip report thread ever. Why start a thread and then decide not to report anything?
So let me get this straight. You say (even though partially redacting later) that this could possibly have been the worst trip report ever simply because he didn't add in the details that you wanted him to?
Perhaps you were just a little disappointed and expressed yourself a little indifferently?
Just a question, you seem like a real good dude.
