Eric Cantor election

Quite a shocking result. But I don't really want to get into the politics of tea party, or Mr Cantor or any of that. I want to talk about a pollster who 7 days before the election had Cantor ahead by 34 point and then he lost by 11 percentage point. The guy got it wrong by 45 percentage points! Lol. Ya, think this guy needs a new model for however he does his polling? How in the world is he going to be able to sell his pollster services to any future campaigns? Lol.

The problem is that most that are polled dont vote in a primary.
My understanding is that only 6% of eligible republicans voted.
A small minority of dedicated voters can become a majority in a small turnout primary.
Will Cantor go the Murkowski route and run as a write in? It amazingly worked for her.

Quote: terapined

The problem is that most that are polled dont vote in a primary.
My understanding is that only 6% of eligible republicans voted.
A small minority of dedicated voters can become a majority in a small turnout primary.
Will Cantor go the Murkowski route and run as a write in? It amazingly worked for her.

I don't really have an opinion on why he lost, but I do know that he didn't lose because of low turnout. Turnout for this election was 28% greater than that in the 2012 primary. Besides, other not-favorites of the Tea Party won in redder states (Lindsey Graham), so I don't think Cantor's loss necessarily reflects a national trend.

From what I understand, Cantor basically ignored Brat until near the end, when he went bitterly negative. That's, frankly, the same arrogance that Democrats exhibit. He also went to some event at a big anti-Tea Party guy's place, which probably pissed them off, but that would piss off any constituency. IMHO, this was just a local election where the visible incumbent made a perfect storm of bad decisions in a global political environment where the overall constituency is growing tired of failure and excuses.

As for the write-in route ... maybe, but Cantor never struck me as someone who'd hold on that tight. I could be wrong, though.

I don't believe the State of Virginia allows a write-in vote in the general election. I think its called the "sore loser" law.

https://storify.com/DKElections/mclaughlin-and-associates-terrible-2012-polling

They are truly awful at polling.

There are really only two things to say:

Dewey beats Truman

"The polls are skewed"

I'm not thrilled with either candidate.

I am thrilled that a guy that spent just 122k on his race beat a guy that spent over 5 million.
People over money, gotta love it. Doesn't happen often in American politics.

Quote: Nareed

There are really only two things to say:

Dewey beats Truman

"The polls are skewed"

Rove on Foxnews when Fox announced Obama's re-election victory.
The video is priceless.

Quote: terapined

Rove on Foxnews when Fox announced Obama's re-election victory.
The video is priceless.

That truly was the highlight of the 2012 election for me.

MSNBC had already called it for Obama so I switched over to Fox News feed off of their misery, and I was treated with Rove's public breakdown.

Quote: kewlj

I want to talk about a pollster who 7 days before the election had Cantor ahead by 34 point and then he lost by 11 percentage point.

"Unprecedented" to quote many pundits.

30+ point poll missed the mark.

AND NO ONE IS SCREAMING ABOUT VOTER FRAUD!

Quote:

Lol.

Exactly.

You know why Brat won? He was advertising on country radio. When I was driving to Charles Town (see, this story is gambling related, I ended out winning $150) last weekend, I heard an ad of his (I listen to a Fredericksburg based station). Only half serious here, but I found that to be a good way to target your audience, especially down there.

As a hardline R, I've got to say that this comes down to immigration. Republicans (should) know that any immigration deal that passes over Obama's desk will include some level of amnesty, which (obviously) a very large portion of the party is against. There aren't many issues out there that would make you trade the party leader (technically speaking he was the leader of the Republicans in congress, not Boehner), but these days, giving citizenship to people whose first act in our country was to break our laws just happens to be one of them (abortion and gun control are two others).

I really don't understand liberals who want to even start a discussion about "Immigration Reform" when we cant even stop kids from crossing the border. It is all about getting future Dem votes, with a small part about being too good to do the jobs the illegals do, you know the "Ones Americans wont do". You know, the Americans that want 99 weeks of UC insurance and start looking for a job at Week 98 and then complain there are "No jobs".


As for why the polling was off, Eric thought he had it and didn't feel he needed up to date polling.

Great Story on why he lost here from a local

http://thefederalist.com/2014/06/11/why-we-fired-eric-cantor/

Quote: terapined

Rove on Foxnews when Fox announced Obama's re-election victory.
The video is priceless.

Maybe so. But that would be three things, not two, and there are only two things to say ;)

Is Cantor's district rigged enough to fend off a democratic challenger?

Quote: ahiromu

As a hardline R, I've got to say that this comes down to immigration. Republicans (should) know that any immigration deal that passes over Obama's desk will include some level of amnesty, which (obviously) a very large portion of the party is against. There aren't many issues out there that would make you trade the party leader (technically speaking he was the leader of the Republicans in congress, not Boehner), but these days, giving citizenship to people whose first act in our country was to break our laws just happens to be one of them (abortion and gun control are two others).

1) The number of illegals in the US, in particular of Mexican immigrants, rose as border "security" increased. Why? Simple. Most of these people would cross the border to find seasonal jobs, then return home. Maybe they spent most of the year in America, but they left their families behind and sent them money. As crossing the border became mroe difficult, though, they stayed year-round and many also brought their families along.

2) Amnesty does not mean granting anyone citizenship. It only means allowing these immigrants to stay, legally, and emerge from the shadows. There can be fines, there can be delays in case they should choose to apply for citizenship, there can be other penalties, too.

3) When you make something, like immigration or drugs, illegal or very difficult to accomplish legally, and at the same time you have a huge demand for that something, you're going to get it illegally. That's how markets work. The only alternative is to find a substitute or do without. The substitute for illegal immigration would be legal immigration. But immigrating legally to America is incredibly difficult and there are quotas which limit things even furhter. Even for the spouse of a US citizen the process is long, arduous, complicated and expensive. Doing without woul greatly damage the economy through a lack of productivity.

4) The alternative to amnesty would be massive dpoertations. Does anyone seriously believe the US would have the will, the resources and the patience,not to mention the stomach, to set up concentration camps in Texas, Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, etc to hold millions of people while they await deportation? Men, women, children, some of whom were born in America, old poeple, the feeble, the sick, the handicapped? Think about it.

Quote: terapined

I'm not thrilled with either candidate.

I am thrilled that a guy that spent just 122k on his race beat a guy that spent over 5 million.
People over money, gotta love it. Doesn't happen often in American politics.

I agree and +10. I suspect not being thrilled drove the voters to work, not the primary.
The Elephant needs new clothes anyway. And I agree, also on the point that Cantor runs as write-in/ind.

EDIT *** It would seem "None of the above" won by a landslide.

Quote: onenickelmiracle

Is Cantor's district rigged enough to fend off a democratic challenger?

Cantor's district is reportedly gerrymandered to be a "safe" Republican district. However, in an off-year, anything can happen. It's the economics professor vs. the social science professor from the same university, and nobody's heard of either of them. There's also a lot of speculation about Cantor running as a 3rd party candidate and throwing everything off-balance. So IMHO it's a wide-open race.

Henrico County? In a year where the Democrats are about as popular (and credible) as used car salesmen? Figure 60-40 even with the relatively unoffensive Jimmy Carter style Democrat.

It's about time people stood up and said we don't support open borders and perpetual amnesties. They will destroy our country as they would any advanced economy-a status we are barely clinging to.

Republicans don't need to support that insanity-voters who want that brand of suicide already have a party to vote for. Si Si Puede!.