Patternicity
May 19th, 2014 at 3:38:48 PM
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Patternicity is the name Michael Shermer (aka The Skeptic) for the human penchant to see aptterns where none really exist.
I did a bad thing along these lines during my trip. I told someone (identity hidden to protect the innocent) that many times when drawing 3 or 4 to a royal in Loose Deuces, the draw would produce something really close. For example, when holding 10, Q, K and Ace of spades, the draw would be a J of hearts. Or when holding 2,2, and J of diamonds, the draw would be K, A of clubs.
While things like this happened, and other close calls involving straigh flushes as well, I'm sure I paid more attention and recalled those occasions more than when, say, when holding 4 to a royal the draw was a 7 of any suit, or some other completely useless card.
So after telling this mistery man about the pattern, I started paying closer attention when holding 3-4 to a royal or a straight flush. I didnd't take notes (I was on vacation and am lazy), but just making the effort showed more or less the same number of close calls and unrelated cards. also when holding just a deuce and drawing close to a straight or royal flush (ie 2 and 4,5,6 of clubs plus king of spades).
I floated the idea that the machine, and VP mahcines in general, might be programmed to show close calls often in order to build excitement. Of course I wasn't entirely serious. But take note this is the kind of thing that happnes when you're tired, have a cold, and drink a black Russian on an empty stomach ;)
I saw plenty of close calls in other games. At the Downtown Grand playing PGP I had 5-card near-royals (with a joker) three times in one session. At bubble craps it's amazing how many times the dice kept moving after almost settlign on the point, or for that matter almost settling on a 7 out.
The thing is you play long enough, and a 2.5 week stretch in Vegas with some daily gaming qualifies, you see almost ebrything, including plenty of close calls. I mentioned I hit four successive come bets on 8, for instance, and three consecutive throws for 11, 3 and 12 while betting the horn. Not to mention I hit a long-shot bet (104-1) in Sigma Derby the one time I played it.
It happens. But usually there are no patterns.
I did a bad thing along these lines during my trip. I told someone (identity hidden to protect the innocent) that many times when drawing 3 or 4 to a royal in Loose Deuces, the draw would produce something really close. For example, when holding 10, Q, K and Ace of spades, the draw would be a J of hearts. Or when holding 2,2, and J of diamonds, the draw would be K, A of clubs.
While things like this happened, and other close calls involving straigh flushes as well, I'm sure I paid more attention and recalled those occasions more than when, say, when holding 4 to a royal the draw was a 7 of any suit, or some other completely useless card.
So after telling this mistery man about the pattern, I started paying closer attention when holding 3-4 to a royal or a straight flush. I didnd't take notes (I was on vacation and am lazy), but just making the effort showed more or less the same number of close calls and unrelated cards. also when holding just a deuce and drawing close to a straight or royal flush (ie 2 and 4,5,6 of clubs plus king of spades).
I floated the idea that the machine, and VP mahcines in general, might be programmed to show close calls often in order to build excitement. Of course I wasn't entirely serious. But take note this is the kind of thing that happnes when you're tired, have a cold, and drink a black Russian on an empty stomach ;)
I saw plenty of close calls in other games. At the Downtown Grand playing PGP I had 5-card near-royals (with a joker) three times in one session. At bubble craps it's amazing how many times the dice kept moving after almost settlign on the point, or for that matter almost settling on a 7 out.
The thing is you play long enough, and a 2.5 week stretch in Vegas with some daily gaming qualifies, you see almost ebrything, including plenty of close calls. I mentioned I hit four successive come bets on 8, for instance, and three consecutive throws for 11, 3 and 12 while betting the horn. Not to mention I hit a long-shot bet (104-1) in Sigma Derby the one time I played it.
It happens. But usually there are no patterns.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
