100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 2979
April 7th, 2014 at 4:59:06 PM permalink
i'm getting at least \$125 in freeplay next week.

my best options are \$5 deuces wild (98.9%) or \$0.50 JoB (8/5).

of course with dw, I only get 5 pulls at max bet b4 I go thru the \$125.

I want to do it but logic says 8/5 JoB is the better play for that level of freeplay?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
• Posts: 5761
April 7th, 2014 at 5:02:51 PM permalink
It seems like you keep asking some variant of the same question over and over again.

The bottom line is, it comes down to how big your bankroll is. Intuitively, you should not give up edge unless you can't afford the variance. To be precise, you should use the Kelly Criterion on your bankroll.

I would use it on the DW. But I am not so scared of getting nothing out of it that I am willing to give up some of the value in order to reduce variance. If you really need that \$125 you should play the lower variance game.

Maybe you will hit a royal and cash out \$20k.
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
April 7th, 2014 at 10:43:09 PM permalink
Should probably play the 8/5 game for the lower variance,,,,unless your BR can support the higher variance DW game.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6255
April 7th, 2014 at 11:42:03 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

It seems like you keep asking some variant of the same question over and over again.

The bottom line is, it comes down to how big your bankroll is. Intuitively, you should not give up edge unless you can't afford the variance. To be precise, you should use the Kelly Criterion on your bankroll.

I would use it on the DW. But I am not so scared of getting nothing out of it that I am willing to give up some of the value in order to reduce variance. If you really need that \$125 you should play the lower variance game.

Maybe you will hit a royal and cash out \$20k.

This. And by the the tone of your previous result posts 100XOdds, I think the answer is pretty obvious. Lower denominations and lower variance. If you can find a game as good as 6/5 Bonus for nickels, that would be even better for a variance cut. Unless you're sensing 4 Deuces or a natural royal is coming of course. But I've never hit either on quarters, let alone the \$5 level. :-\
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
• Posts: 18120
April 7th, 2014 at 11:52:23 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

i'm getting at least \$125 in freeplay next week.

my best options are \$5 deuces wild (98.9%) or \$0.50 JoB (8/5).

of course with dw, I only get 5 pulls at max bet b4 I go thru the \$125.

I want to do it but logic says 8/5 JoB is the better play for that level of freeplay?

What's you're goal? Money or value? If you want the money play lower if you want max value play the best game that has the least fluctuation.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Neutrino
Joined: Feb 20, 2014
• Posts: 515
April 8th, 2014 at 11:42:49 AM permalink
Maybe just me, but I feel like I prefer low variance even from an EV prospective. So many unforeseeable (at least to me, a relatively new gambler) -EV things could happen when you win big. Casinos might find a reason to deny pay, sometimes a bullshit reason, sometimes a bullshit reason with the judge behind them (apparently indian casinos i guess), sometimes you get robbed, and people who hand pay you expect you to tip away a good EV of your money, your relatives want a bit of those as well, etc. And even if all goes well and smooth, hello taxes...

Until I get all these sorted out I would like to put Kelly C model on hold.
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
• Posts: 6097
April 8th, 2014 at 12:38:11 PM permalink
I once was given \$100 freeplay and played a \$10 Bonus Deuces game and was dealt 4 deuces with an ace for \$20,000 on my second hand. Very lucky.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
• Posts: 9854
April 9th, 2014 at 6:25:38 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I once was given \$100 freeplay and played a \$10 Bonus Deuces game and was dealt 4 deuces with an ace for \$20,000 on my second hand. Very lucky.

yeah right, now you have all those tax issues to deal with.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
geoff
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
• Posts: 368
April 9th, 2014 at 6:33:55 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

yeah right, now you have all those tax issues to deal with.

Exactly. Who want's to have \$10,000 if you had to give \$10,000 to the government to get it.
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
• Posts: 2979
April 19th, 2014 at 9:15:49 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

This. And by the the tone of your previous result posts 100XOdds, I think the answer is pretty obvious. Lower denominations and lower variance. If you can find a game as good as 6/5 Bonus for nickels, that would be even better for a variance cut. Unless you're sensing 4 Deuces or a natural royal is coming of course. But I've never hit either on quarters, let alone the \$5 level. :-\

yeah, went w/the lower variance.
\$200 on \$0.50 8/5 JoB.

80% return :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)