DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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June 9th, 2014 at 8:50:36 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Did the "Monty Hall Problem" (exactly as described) ever actually come up in Let's Make A Deal? Or was the term developed to frame the math question because people were familiar with Monty and the 3 door concept from LMAD?


No. Not exactly anyway.

"Doors" were only used for the Big Deal, and there were never any options once you chose a door.

The reveal with option to switch was often used with the three curtains. However, the curtains never had more than one zonk. Often it was with three prizes of varying value.

Also note that Monty had discretion on his side. He would often do the reveal and option only if you picked the zonk/low value prize, which further increased the EV of the switch.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Deucekies
Deucekies
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June 9th, 2014 at 12:00:59 PM permalink
The show often had games that were identical to the Monty Hall Problem, but more than occasionally there would be other variables introduced (cash buyout instead of a switch, more than one good prize, more than three options, etc).
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 3rd, 2021 at 7:32:15 AM permalink
I was screaming at the television last night, watching the latest episode of Survivor.

At tribal counsel, Deshawn had to play a game where he would either me immediately eliminated or granted immunity at Tribal Counsel. The game turned out to be the Monty Hall problem. Imagine my reaction when after Jeff revealed a "goat" and Deshawn was given the option to switch, he said "no." I was beside myself, screaming at TV. I prayed the gods of math would punish him by getting the other "goat" and being eliminated. Alas, it was not to be. As they say, sometimes it is better to be lucky than right.

Here is a link to the episode. The Monty Hall portion starts at the 37:00 point. Be warned, you'll have to suffer through some ads to get to it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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December 3rd, 2021 at 9:20:22 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I was screaming at the television last night, watching the latest episode of Survivor.

At tribal counsel, Deshawn had to play a game where he would either me immediately eliminated or granted immunity at Tribal Counsel. The game turned out to be the Monty Hall problem. Imagine my reaction when after Jeff revealed a "goat" and Deshawn was given the option to switch, he said "no." I was beside myself, screaming at TV. I prayed the gods of math would punish him by getting the other "goat" and being eliminated. Alas, it was not to be. As they say, sometimes it is better to be lucky than right.

link to original post



Yes, and one of the contestants (I believe it was Xander) called out "its the Monty Hall problem" before Deshawn made his decision. So, this was not lost on the at least one of the contestants.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 3rd, 2021 at 9:34:45 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Yes, and one of the contestants (I believe it was Xander) called out "its the Monty Hall problem" before Deshawn made his decision. So, this was not lost on the at least one of the contestants.
link to original post



Yes, I caught that too. Earlier in the season they had a Prisoner's Dilemma situation and somebody made a similar comment. They must have a logician on staff this season.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 3rd, 2021 at 9:45:35 AM permalink
Not to derail the thread, but you guys brought up Survivor, so...

Who are you rooting for? Who do you think currently has the edge?

I am pulling for Xander. I like him as a player a lot. I feel like Ricard is right now the strongest player in the game and most likely to win at this point.

To get back on topic, Deshawn did not switch and was right! I'm super confused on how switching is better than staying. You had a 1/3 shot when you first chose and still a 1/3 shot after the first incorrect was shown. What makes one box better than the other?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 3rd, 2021 at 9:55:31 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

I'm super confused on how switching is better than staying. You had a 1/3 shot when you first chose and still a 1/3 shot after the first incorrect was shown. What makes one box better than the other?
link to original post

You have a 1/3 chance of being right. So, you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong.

That doesn稚 change once you池e shown that one of the 2/3 choices was also wrong.

What DOES change is, once shown a bad choice, you池e still 2/3 wrong, so the other choice becomes 2/3 right.



But all that is strictly math. As pointed out, Monty had options of his own. Maybe Jeff had options as well. Monty didn稚 always offer the switch.

Would Jeff have made the offer if a wrong choice was made?
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
mwalz9
mwalz9
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December 3rd, 2021 at 9:58:23 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: mwalz9

I'm super confused on how switching is better than staying. You had a 1/3 shot when you first chose and still a 1/3 shot after the first incorrect was shown. What makes one box better than the other?
link to original post

You have a 1/3 chance of being right. So, you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong.

That doesn稚 change once you池e shown that one of the 2/3 choices was also wrong.

What DOES change is, once shown a bad choice, you池e still 2/3 wrong, so the other choice becomes 2/3 right.



But all that is strictly math. As pointed out, Monty had options of his own. Maybe Jeff had options as well. Monty didn稚 always offer the switch.

Would Jeff have made the offer if a wrong choice was made?
link to original post



I disagree. Looking at the other choice, as a single choice, it also is only 1/3 right or 2/3 wrong.
unJon
unJon
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December 3rd, 2021 at 11:26:50 AM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: mwalz9

I'm super confused on how switching is better than staying. You had a 1/3 shot when you first chose and still a 1/3 shot after the first incorrect was shown. What makes one box better than the other?
link to original post

You have a 1/3 chance of being right. So, you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong.

That doesn稚 change once you池e shown that one of the 2/3 choices was also wrong.

What DOES change is, once shown a bad choice, you池e still 2/3 wrong, so the other choice becomes 2/3 right.



But all that is strictly math. As pointed out, Monty had options of his own. Maybe Jeff had options as well. Monty didn稚 always offer the switch.

Would Jeff have made the offer if a wrong choice was made?
link to original post



I disagree. Looking at the other choice, as a single choice, it also is only 1/3 right or 2/3 wrong.
link to original post



That痴 not correct under the assumption that the host will only open a door with a goat, and never the winning door.

Imagine there are 100 doors. You pick one. Then the host opens 98 doors with a goat and asks if you want to switch.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

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