chrisr
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
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March 21st, 2014 at 2:23:33 PM permalink
I bet $100 I can pick a perfect bracket.

caveat: i get to pick 8.5*10^16 brackets (<1% of all possible brackets)

we can wait for next year.. or i could probably show the picking methodology is independent of what already has happened.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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March 21st, 2014 at 3:14:43 PM permalink
I will take that bet if you agree to fill them out yourself using pen and paper.
Order from chaos
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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March 21st, 2014 at 10:53:09 PM permalink
Does perfect include the first round (i.e. 67 out of 67)?

If all of your brackets have all four #1 teams in the round of 64 winning, that's 263 = 9.22 x 1018 brackets.

Where do you get 8.5 x 1016 from? 256 is 7.2 x 1016.

(Oh, and in case you're wondering, use [ sup ] and [ /sup ], but without the spaces, to draw superscript numbers.)
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 22nd, 2014 at 12:53:10 AM permalink
Would someone please explain to me what a "bracket" is?
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
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March 22nd, 2014 at 2:52:04 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Would someone please explain to me what a "bracket" is?

Brackets for the NCAA Tournament (aka March Madness)



Fighting BS one post at a time!
wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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March 22nd, 2014 at 5:00:43 AM permalink
What's more outrageous? Not knowing who Floyd Mayweather is, or not knowing what a bracket is? :)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 22nd, 2014 at 5:05:45 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

What's more outrageous? Not knowing who Floyd Mayweather is, or not knowing what a bracket is? :)



I was thinking the same thing!!!!! It seems to me that anyone who has ever worked in an office would be subject to the constant banter.... Same as knowing about a 'Super Bowl square'!!!!!!
chrisr
chrisr
Joined: Dec 9, 2013
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March 22nd, 2014 at 12:19:17 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Does perfect include the first round (i.e. 67 out of 67)?


no, i did it out of 59 teams and took all #1 picks in the round of 64

Quote:

Where do you get 8.5 x 1016 from?


i was basically boasting i could eliminate 99% of the possible brackets fairly easily. I'm sure people have come up with even smaller subsets than mine that would virtually guarantee a winning pick.

anyway, i wasn't serious about the bet.. my picks are just take all the brackets with with less than 24 upsets..

why i think it works; well if the seeding were completely random you'd expect half the games to be upsets. (31.5).. it turns out thought that the average number of upsets are around 17 (which reflects that better teams are usually higher seeds).. take around the historical 95th percentile for # of touney upsets (23 games).. and count all the combinations of less than 24 upsets and you eliminate about 99% of the brackets.

has anyone come up with something better to eliminate improbable brackets? 10^17 combinations is still a lot
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 23rd, 2014 at 12:58:03 AM permalink
Sorry to trouble you guys. I know what a Super Bowl square is.

But until recently I had no idea what this "bracket" business is. Im not much of a sports fan and I don't make sports bets.

Now, what is a "perfect bracket"?
pacomartin
pacomartin
Joined: Jan 14, 2010
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March 23rd, 2014 at 2:15:30 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Now, what is a "perfect bracket"?

NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament have 63 games. You pick the winner of every game. As the odds are 2^63 to 1, it is effectively impossible.

While familiarity with the teams should help reduce the odds, there are upset games that almost nobody would predict. They tend to wipe out much of the field.

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