Dogs Staking Paln

Hi all
I have access to a database showing the winning traps at my local dog tack since 1986
That's about 16,200 races by my calculation

PERCENTAGE WINS BY BOX NUMBER: (Numbered 1 to 8)
305m 19.8, 14.2; 11.9; 12.0; 11.6; 10.1; 9.1; 10.2 Best Boxes 1,2,3,4 (Wins 57.90%)
520m 17.7; 14.2; 12.4; 12.0; 11.2; 10.2; 10.2; 11.7 Best Boxes 1,2,3,4 (Wins 56.30%)
645m 19.4; 16.4; 13.0; 11.4; 8.7; 10.2; 5.0; 12.0 Best Boxes 1,2,3,8 (Wins 60.20%)
755m 20.0; 13.8; 13.2; 14.1; 8.6; 13.2; 10.1; 10.3 Best Boxes 1,2,3,4 (Wins 61.10%)

You can see a very clear bias to boxes (traps) 1 to 4. The 305m etc is the race distance.

I would like to develop a staking plan to take advantage of this bias.
The odds for each dog are fixed once the wager is made which is a huge advantage

Of course there are times when boxes 1 to 4 will not win for a number of races
but generally they win 7 or 8 from 12 races on the card

Any help would be much appreciated

Been there, done that. Every dog track has a similar bias on short races. Did make a few dollars at Cloverleaf in Loveland one season. Long race and box was at an angle. If the 1 or 2 dog were not super breakers, they had to slow down or be pinched against the rail. Most slowed down from it and could be eliminated from the tri.

Plus at most dog tracks if you bet over $20 to win on a dog, you now have the favorite !

Were there always 8 dogs in the race for the data you have? If not, that would bias it.

Quote: DRich

Were there always 8 dogs in the race for the data you have? If not, that would bias it.

Yes almost always 8 dogs - its popular here and races are always 8 with 2 emergencies in case a dog
is withdrawn

Quote: Buzzard

Plus at most dog tracks if you bet over $20 to win on a dog, you now have the favorite !

The odds are fixed, so when the bet is placed the return is guaranteed at the quoted price

Do you have what the odds were on each dog?

Quote: endermike

Do you have what the odds were on each dog?

I have some limited data for the winning dogs, some examples last month
These are the winning odds paid on dogs that won from boxes 1 to 4

07 Feb: 10/1, 7/1, 21/1, 3/1, 5/1, 6/1, 6/1
14 Feb: 12/1, 32/1, 7/1, 2/1, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 22/1
21 Feb: 3/1, 4/1, 2/1, 3/1, 5/1, 5/1, 6/1
28 Feb: 9/1, 2/1, 2/1, 3/1, 6/1, 4/1, 3/1, 2/1

On those 4 days of racing there were 12 races each day, each race with 8 dogs
So on each day 7 or 8 of the winners came from boxes 1 to 4

Quote: Buzzard

Plus at most dog tracks if you bet over $20 to win on a dog, you now have the favorite !

The races have fixed odds available - the pay out is fixed at the price shown when the wager is placed.
So in this case, my wager would not influence the price unless its a very big bet.

Quote: Pando

I have some limited data for the winning dogs, some examples last month
These are the winning odds paid on dogs that won from boxes 1 to 4

07 Feb: 10/1, 7/1, 21/1, 3/1, 5/1, 6/1, 6/1
14 Feb: 12/1, 32/1, 7/1, 2/1, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, 22/1
21 Feb: 3/1, 4/1, 2/1, 3/1, 5/1, 5/1, 6/1
28 Feb: 9/1, 2/1, 2/1, 3/1, 6/1, 4/1, 3/1, 2/1

On those 4 days of racing there were 12 races each day, each race with 8 dogs
So on each day 7 or 8 of the winners came from boxes 1 to 4

Do you also have that data for when the dogs didn't win? If you do we can probably test this idea.

Quote: endermike

Do you also have that data for when the dogs didn't win? If you do we can probably test this idea.

No sorry I don't have that

But next Friday I will collect the data for all dogs in the races regardless of
whether they win or not.

Pando... My recollection of betting dogs is that the public has factored in that the lower post numbers win disproportionally more races than the higher post numbers. In other words, with the huge % takeout for the 'house', it is unlikely you will find a positive EV bet at the dog track.
In other words, if two equally talented dogs are in the same race, the one with post position 1 will be 5-1, while the one with post position 8 will be 9 -1, with both being -EV.

I have been to a dog track hundreds of times but I have no idea how the inner workings works. How do the dogs get their number? Is it random or does it have to do with past races.

Quote: GWAE

I have been to a dog track hundreds of times but I have no idea how the inner workings works. How do the dogs get their number? Is it random or does it have to do with past races.

The numbers and traps are drawn by computer approved by the NZ Racing Board who control racing in New Zealand

Hi Endremike,

Here are the fixed prices for 2 dog races today
When the bets are placed the odds are fixed at these prices

The pay out is for $1:

(1) $6.00 (2) $9.00 (3) $6.00 (4) $7.50 (5) $2.80 (6) $9.00 (7) $4.00 (8) $18.00

(1) $7.00 (2) $16.00 (3) $14.00 (4) $9.00 (5) $12.00 (6) $7.00 (7) $3.00 (8) $2.80

In this case the $2.80 favourites are quite generous (in my view)

Favoured boxes on this track at this distance are 1,2,3,4

Hope this is enough to test your idea