Don't hate betting systems TOO much, wizard xD

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Quote: Tomspur

That may have been true in the good old days, but I fear that may not be 100% unabashedly true of the modern day and age. I find the education system at primary and secondary levels in the US as not being very strong at all......this is just my opinion of course.

I wonder, per capita, which country contains the smartest people in the world?

The US is tied for 19th on average IQ. The highest average in the world is Hong Kong, South Korea, then Japan.

Quote: Neutrino

First of all I'd like to say I 100% agree with that betting systems do not affect the house edge and in my opinion, the only mathematically solid "betting systems" would be bankroll management, which nobody calls "betting system" anyway.

But I don't 100% share wizard's hatred for betting systems, because not all people all the time play to win money.

Sometimes you play to impress a stupid girl (aka standard American), or get on your boss's good side, or make some friends think you're smart. As long as you're not playing for money the battlefield changes. Take note of a psychological phenomenon called "cognitive dissonance", which makes people psychologically ignore major loss. So... if you have a betting system that lets you gain $10 99% of the time, and lose $1000 1% of the time, and you're playing to impress, and the other person will CD over the $1000 loss anyway, why the hell not?

Take it one step further. You're using martingale to impress a girl (dumb one ofc). Looking at your bankroll, you have 1/128 chance of going totally bankrupt with your current bet. and 127/128 chance of impressing the American female. Well, if the time that 1/128 hits, you can just go "well fuck guess we're not meant to be." and move on to the next dumb girl.

Are you sure your marty is going to impress people? Wouldn't the girl/friends/boss see you betting $1600 to win $5 on a 50/50 bet and decide you're an idiot?

Also, why is the american girl stupid? Does she believe in trend following or something?

Quote: Neutrino

First of all I'd like to say I 100% agree with that betting systems do not affect the house edge and in my opinion, the only mathematically solid "betting systems" would be bankroll management, which nobody calls "betting system" anyway.

But I don't 100% share wizard's hatred for betting systems, because not all people all the time play to win money.

Sometimes you play to impress a stupid girl (aka standard American), or get on your boss's good side, or make some friends think you're smart. As long as you're not playing for money the battlefield changes. Take note of a psychological phenomenon called "cognitive dissonance", which makes people psychologically ignore major loss. So... if you have a betting system that lets you gain $10 99% of the time, and lose $1000 1% of the time, and you're playing to impress, and the other person will CD over the $1000 loss anyway, why the hell not?

Take it one step further. You're using martingale to impress a girl (dumb one ofc). Looking at your bankroll, you have 1/128 chance of going totally bankrupt with your current bet. and 127/128 chance of impressing the American female. Well, if the time that 1/128 hits, you can just go "well fuck guess we're not meant to be." and move on to the next dumb girl.

Anything to convince yourself. You can always find a reason something that's clearly dumb or wrong, might be ok.

I didn't realize coworkers and bosses think being able multiply x 2 was smart.

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Neutrino,I appoligize for helping derail this thread. I'm still hyped up after the UNC-Dook game tonight and I was looking for something contentious.

That said, Your original post was a touch vague on what you meant about impressing people. I do agree that many folks (of all nationalities) don't have a good grasp on the relative advantages and disadvantages of systems which trade rare massive losses for frequent small wins. However, most folks also are not impressed by small wins.

I would suggest any person impressed by the "qualities" of a martingale type system is either not worth "getting to know." However, I would also say that if there are certain "activities" which can be "acquired" by impressing them by winning a small amount at minimal risk, it might as you stated be worthwhile for the gambler in question to employ such a strategy.

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Quote: endermike

Neutrino,I appoligize for helping derail this thread. I'm still hyped up after the UNC-Dook game tonight and I was looking for something contentious.

That said, Your original post was a touch vague on what you meant about impressing people. I do agree that many folks (of all nationalities) don't have a good grasp on the relative advantages and disadvantages of systems which trade rare massive losses for frequent small wins. However, most folks also are not impressed by small wins.

I would suggest any person impressed by the "qualities" of a martingale type system is either not worth "getting to know." However, I would also say that if there are certain "activities" which can be "acquired" by impressing them by winning a small amount at minimal risk, it might as you stated worthwhile for the gambler in question to employ such a strategy.

Cruder phrasing of above

If you can "get it in" with a hottie by winning a little bit at low risk, that makes up for the bad EV of a martingale

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HAHA I actually laughed, your structure and cruder phrasing was just right on

OK, I get it, but not sure I am buying it.

I imagine a conversation. "hey, how about that guy John Doe who gets laid all the time with all those different women!"

"Yeah, I bet he has lots of money and a fancy car and house."

"Nah, he rents a shithole and drives around in a rust bucket. He just finds those babes that hang out in casinos all the time. You've seen them" [see below in case you haven't]

"How does he get them into bed?"

"He wows them with his betting systems that are win or bust; when he wins big, va va voom!"

CASINO BABES

Quote: Neutrino

And finally a "fvck you" to the guy who said I'm using betting systems to try to make money and defending it. Re-read my post.

You're new, so I'll give benefit of the doubt that you've not read the rules and are unaware of the workings of this forum. But direct insults and profanity, even if disguised with odd letters or characters, aren't allowed. Accusations and judgements can be frustrating, but please find an intelligent way to defend against them =)

Quote: thecesspit

Oh, it's pretty huge up here regardless. I know people who'd be happier beating the USA than winning a Gold.

Judging by the reactions to the come back win yesterday in the Ladies final, it'll be insane if it happens today:

http://deadspin.com/canadians-freaking-out-over-winning-hockey-gold-is-just-1527201523

Put a pause on the CAN vs US / Old vs New education talk. Gonna split the thread, gimme five minutes.

Edit: All done. You can find the US v CAN debate here

deleted

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Thanks. Now I can block the new one. :-)

=)

Those who want to continue the IQ among nations debate may find that thread split to here.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Quote: Face

Put a pause on the CAN vs US / Old vs New education talk. Gonna split the thread, gimme five minutes.

Edit: All done. You can find the US v CAN debate here

Thanks. Now I can block the new one. :-)

Did that as soon as I saw it...
Really blows to hit the post with like 3-1/2 minutes left to effectively lock it up and then lose. Oh, well, $h!t happens

Quote: Neutrino

And finally a "fvck you" to the guy who said I'm using betting systems to try to make money and defending it. Re-read my post.

I think that was me - although I can't seem to find that post of mine (and assume I'd get a PM if a mod deleted it).

Anyway, I find it very hard to believe your purpose of your betting system is to pick up chicks or impress anyone. No one is impressed by someone who's betting 5,10,20 a round (since that's where most of your bets are). If you want to impress someone, you flat bet a larger amount.

For that reason, I find it ridiculous to defend a betting system like that. It's like a teenager trying to convince his parents he smokes weed for the medicinal effects.

Then again, I don't know anything about impressing someone in a casino. I go to a casino for one reason only, and that's to make money (or get a free gift, I like free gifts).

My story isn't quite a betting system but it worked out well.

I was on a date and we went to Mandalay Bay for dinner and the Foundation room. I had a trip planned to do some gambling in Lake Tahoe and wanted my date to join me, i was rather smitten at the time. She explained that at the moment she couldn't afford the trip and wouldn't let me pay for her plane ticket. After some convincing and lots of drink she agreed that if I won enough to cover her ticket at Blackjack that night she would go with me. I was thrilled. I sat at their good six deck game and proceeded to lose, lose, lose. When she went to the bathroom I upped my bet drastically trying to get back everything I lost and enough for her plane ticket. Sadly that lost too. So I did what any desperate guy in love would do. I got up from the table and when she came back i lied to her and told her I won.

We went to Lake Tahoe. Four years later we were married. Fortunately when I told her this story she didn't get mad at me for lying.

Quote: DRich

Fortunately when I told her this story she didn't get mad at me for lying.

That's because she knew it all the time.

Some of you have pointed out that the system of betting seems too stupid to impress anyone (girl, boss, friend etc). I have said this before but you are all overestimating the average person's intelligence.

Furthermore, it's not even always the case that you need the (insert person to be impressed here) to be present and watch your progress as you make money from the betting system or lose it all. If the person is not present, you only need to show final winnings. It could especially be impressive if he/she compares to other people if you're in a group (since the vast majority of people lose in a casino).

Also, I never said this was a casino setting. It could be anything. It could be any home game. More importantly, it could be a game where the amount of currency someone has doesn't matter, but rather win/lose (aka having more/less than someone else) matters.

And it could even be in other things such as stock market. Some wall street people can either get lucky by natural variance and stock picking, or use something similar to martingale. Either way, point is, they made money using a -EV method. And now people trust them and give their money to them, he could now offer something like "get your money invested by an extremely good investment banker" and start taking commissions and fees. In a more casual setting with friends, this could usually turn up like "Hey, invest my money for me, if you win you can have 30%, if you lose it's on me." If that was the setup, why wouldn't you use martingale? you get 30% of the win 127/128 of the time, and in the 1/128 case, you don't even lose your own money.

Once again I'd like to emphasize that the average person is impressed by money gains, not the methodology. If you made a good move in poker and got sucked out, the average person would think you made the wrong move. I know. My father used to have a program with a wells fargo banker that "invests" for him. He takes a 5% commission on all profits at the end of the year and is the loss is on his clients. He has plenty of clients. He didn't use martingale though, he just picked random stocks. I would definitely if I were him.

Quote: DRich

My story isn't quite a betting system but it worked out well.

I was on a date and we went to Mandalay Bay for dinner and the Foundation room. I had a trip planned to do some gambling in Lake Tahoe and wanted my date to join me, i was rather smitten at the time. She explained that at the moment she couldn't afford the trip and wouldn't let me pay for her plane ticket. After some convincing and lots of drink she agreed that if I won enough to cover her ticket at Blackjack that night she would go with me. I was thrilled. I sat at their good six deck game and proceeded to lose, lose, lose. When she went to the bathroom I upped my bet drastically trying to get back everything I lost and enough for her plane ticket. Sadly that lost too. So I did what any desperate guy in love would do. I got up from the table and when she came back i lied to her and told her I won.

We went to Lake Tahoe. Four years later we were married. Fortunately when I told her this story she didn't get mad at me for lying.

That's a great story.

Quote: JimRockford

That's because she knew it all the time.

I don't think that is the case. I think she would have told me after the fact.

Quote: DRich

I don't think that is the case. I think she would have told me after the fact.

It reminds me of those TV shows with the wife who knew about something the husband did to impress her but he fell short. She defiantly knew and didn't care either way. You got a keeper.

Quote: Neutrino

Some of you have pointed out that the system of betting seems too stupid to impress anyone (girl, boss, friend etc). I have said this before but you are all overestimating the average person's intelligence.

Then just take them people to McDonald's they will be just as impressed

If I was with someone who was impressed by a betting system like Martingale I'd be leaving alone.

the most impressive betting system if you are interested is betting max odds on the DC. you get to lay up to 200x your bet. if you're actually rich and don't care about a few grand it's defiantly the way to look balla for your buck.

I seem to notice out of all the things I've said about betting systems, people's eye catch on to the part about "impressing girls" the quickest.

I'd like to now point out something else. Why does the wizard define a betting system strictly as a system attempting to gain +EV by altering bet amounts?

For example, how is bankroll management not a betting system?

When the casino offer you loss-prevention, how is the system of making high variance plays not a betting system?

Sometimes if you play the optimal EV way, your overall value will be down due to taxes. How is, for example patting AAA88 in joker poker instead of drawing AAA to avoid the jackpot tax, not a betting system?

Quote: DRich

My story isn't quite a betting system but it worked out well.

I was on a date and we went to Mandalay Bay for dinner and the Foundation room. I had a trip planned to do some gambling in Lake Tahoe and wanted my date to join me, i was rather smitten at the time. She explained that at the moment she couldn't afford the trip and wouldn't let me pay for her plane ticket. After some convincing and lots of drink she agreed that if I won enough to cover her ticket at Blackjack that night she would go with me. I was thrilled. I sat at their good six deck game and proceeded to lose, lose, lose. When she went to the bathroom I upped my bet drastically trying to get back everything I lost and enough for her plane ticket. Sadly that lost too. So I did what any desperate guy in love would do. I got up from the table and when she came back i lied to her and told her I won.

We went to Lake Tahoe. Four years later we were married. Fortunately when I told her this story she didn't get mad at me for lying.

Something I found quite funny that you remarked was that you were "quite smitten at the time".......smitten at the time, does that mean you are not smitten anymore? Can you still be smitten with your wife after marriage? I'm still smitten by mine but she has me by the short and curly's :)

Nice story!