Help needed - Creating realistic win goals
February 2nd, 2014 at 11:30:58 AM
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I'd like to talk about Win Goals and how to estimate and create a realistic win goal for a session.
Let's take for the sake of argument someone who plays Blackjack for $10/ hand. An unrealistic win goal would be playing to win $1000 in a session. Sure I'm sure somewhere/sometime it may have happened but I think playing for that kind of goal really only leads to ruin.
I'm curious if there's a formula based on bet size + total house advantage of bet(s) + bankroll that can estimate the chances of you attaining a win goal of X dollars. Ideally I'd love to see sometime like this: (as an example)
Bankroll Bet HA % Win Goal % chance of attaining
100 10 1% 100 40%
100 10 1% 150 30%
100 10 1% 200 20%
Is this even possible to calculate or estimate?
Thanks!
Let's take for the sake of argument someone who plays Blackjack for $10/ hand. An unrealistic win goal would be playing to win $1000 in a session. Sure I'm sure somewhere/sometime it may have happened but I think playing for that kind of goal really only leads to ruin.
I'm curious if there's a formula based on bet size + total house advantage of bet(s) + bankroll that can estimate the chances of you attaining a win goal of X dollars. Ideally I'd love to see sometime like this: (as an example)
Bankroll Bet HA % Win Goal % chance of attaining
100 10 1% 100 40%
100 10 1% 150 30%
100 10 1% 200 20%
Is this even possible to calculate or estimate?
Thanks!
February 2nd, 2014 at 11:38:06 AM
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It's possible via simulation. Not sure if anyone on this forum has done it extensively though. I unfortunately don't have a good software setup for this.
February 2nd, 2014 at 11:42:13 AM
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I think I could code it for craps.. I created a craps sim to simulate some of my strategies.. I suppose I could set parameters that would quit if I lost 50% and quit when I attained win goal. Then output the results.
February 2nd, 2014 at 11:49:45 AM
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You can estimate it with the gambler's ruin formula (it's only an estimate because of doubles, splits and blackjacks).
p is the probability of winning, but a good proxy is 49.8% if there is a .4% house edge.
q is the probability of losing, so proxy is 50.2%
n1 is your bankroll in units, and n2 is your win goal in units.
Your chance of achieving your win goal is
P = [ 1 - (q/p)^n1 ] / [ 1 - (q/p)^(n1+n2) ]
Examples:
bankroll 10 units, target 10 units win, P = 48%
bankroll 10 units, target 15 units win, P = 37.6%
bankroll 10 units, target 20 units win, P = 30.7%
Again, only estimates because of the doubles, splits and blackjacks.
p is the probability of winning, but a good proxy is 49.8% if there is a .4% house edge.
q is the probability of losing, so proxy is 50.2%
n1 is your bankroll in units, and n2 is your win goal in units.
Your chance of achieving your win goal is
P = [ 1 - (q/p)^n1 ] / [ 1 - (q/p)^(n1+n2) ]
Examples:
bankroll 10 units, target 10 units win, P = 48%
bankroll 10 units, target 15 units win, P = 37.6%
bankroll 10 units, target 20 units win, P = 30.7%
Again, only estimates because of the doubles, splits and blackjacks.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
February 2nd, 2014 at 11:53:08 AM
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This is fantasic thanks!
I think my problem is I don't know when to quit. If I establish a reasonable win goal, I can play "first bad thing to happen I leave" strategy. That is the first loss I incur, I color up, otherwise I'll keep playing.
I think my problem is I don't know when to quit. If I establish a reasonable win goal, I can play "first bad thing to happen I leave" strategy. That is the first loss I incur, I color up, otherwise I'll keep playing.
