So, who's playing the Mega Millions?
Who's with me?
Quote: OntheButtoni had to kick in $5 Just so I have a chance.
#Believe.
I don't mind having 2 winners and splitting the Jackpot ;D
Of course, you could try to get backing for giant loans, but I'm not counting that.
OtOH, I may get a ticket if it goes up again. Throwing money away, ahh. I've done worse.
edit - never win the big prize, that is
Quote: rxwineWhat's funny, is, if you two were the only two to play for that prize from now on, you'd likely play week after week and never win until you finally died of old age.
Of course, you could try to get backing for giant loans, but I'm not counting that.
OtOH, I may get a ticket if it goes up again. Throwing money away, ahh. I've done worse.
If we were the only two to play from now on, then once the Jackpot hits $1 Billion on Christmas Eve, I would make a presentation for a loan of $260 million and hit the Jackpot. So even with a result of a tie, taxes, and interest rate on the loan, the EV is still positive.
This thing is depressing. Select "max" and "start" and watch how bad the odds are:
http://justwebware.com/megamillions/megamillions.html
Quote: WizardMy wife made me buy ten tickets for the Friday the 13th drawing, when I was in California. I was very ashamed to do so. Fortunately, nobody recognized me buying them.
If I could have seen you to take a picture I would have made a Meme "ADVANTAGE PLAYER" then at the bottom "GAMBLING DEGENERATE".
Then I would have spread it all through out the gambling community.
Quote: sodawaterJust bought 10,000 fake tickets on the simulator and did not win a single prize over $5. Total winnings for $10,000 spent were $900.
This thing is depressing. Select "max" and "start" and watch how bad the odds are:
http://justwebware.com/megamillions/megamillions.html
I'm going to go have a smoke, let's see how this goes. Will Edit post with results.
EDIT: Two tickets/week for 119.4 years.
Wagered: $12,414
Won: $1,380
Loss: ($11,034)
Return/Dollar: $0.11
I won $50 three times, that's the best I did.
Quote: sodawaterJust bought 10,000 fake tickets on the simulator and did not win a single prize over $5. Total winnings for $10,000 spent were $900.
Well, now that you've gotten all that bad luck out of the way, you're due for a win in the real thing!
Quote: Mission146Quote: sodawaterJust bought 10,000 fake tickets on the simulator and did not win a single prize over $5. Total winnings for $10,000 spent were $900.
This thing is depressing. Select "max" and "start" and watch how bad the odds are:
http://justwebware.com/megamillions/megamillions.html
I'm going to go have a smoke, let's see how this goes. Will Edit post with results.
EDIT: Two tickets/week for 119.4 years.
Wagered: $12,414
Won: $1,380
Loss: ($11,034)
Return/Dollar: $0.11
I won $50 three times, that's the best I did.
In fairness, losing $11k over two lifetimes is pretty insignificant.
No one has made noises about a second pool.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
In fairness, losing $11k over two lifetimes is pretty insignificant.
My three $50 hits were significantly better than expected.
Got 36 numbers.
If I win, get 1/36 of the jackpot.
Quote: Soft17If we were the only two to play from now on, then once the Jackpot hits $1 Billion on Christmas Eve, I would make a presentation for a loan of $260 million and hit the Jackpot. So even with a result of a tie, taxes, and interest rate on the loan, the EV is still positive.
You're assuming the jackpot will continue to grow as though others are playing. But, if nobody else plays after tonight, the jackpot would barely increase on Friday and be well under $1B on Tuesday. Even if you did split $1B two ways, you'd each win about $280MM if you took the cash option. After taxes, you'd be underwater on the loan even if it had no interest.
Quote: DRichI would buy $10 worth if it was convenient but I am not driving an hour each way and waiting in a 2 hour line for tickets.
I just bought gas in Tampa on the way home, big sign on the door about the lottery, no line at all.
Quote: Sabretom2Lottery = Tax for the mathematically challenged.
There have been many advantage plays in lotteries.
Quote: DRichThere have been many advantage plays in lotteries.
Musta missed the book.
Quote: Sabretom2Musta missed the book.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-8-million-report-article-1.1128482
EDIT: Oops! I accidently bought them for tonight instead of Friday somehow. So maybe, on that ever-so-slim chance....
Quote: rdw4potusYou're assuming the jackpot will continue to grow as though others are playing. But, if nobody else plays after tonight, the jackpot would barely increase on Friday and be well under $1B on Tuesday. Even if you did split $1B two ways, you'd each win about $280MM if you took the cash option. After taxes, you'd be underwater on the loan even if it had no interest.
True. I wasn't really calculating anything.
Since the minimum raise on lottery is $5MM per drawing, it will take a while to hit $1Billion.
Also, even with Annuity, it will be $500MM - 25% Fed Tax.
With an average Interest loan rate of 5%/Year on the $280MM loan, the interest will cost more then the winning LOL.
Quote: DRichThere have been many advantage plays in lotteries.
How about hittable odds? Bill Nye the Science Guy just dissed the lottery on CNN. You have much better odds of being killed by a vending machine, 1 in 112 million.
However he couldnt hand a check over to the state to buy every combo. He had to purchase all the tickets at local stores individually. So he hired some people and made out tickets for all the combinations and the people spread out and purchased non stop at various locations...and by the time the deadline cutoff was hit...he still hadnt bought all the combinations. Luckily for him, he did have the winning ticket, and made a profit when it all was over.
Quote: Soft17True. I wasn't really calculating anything.
Since the minimum raise on lottery is $5MM per drawing, it will take a while to hit $1Billion.
lotto jackpots increase a lot faster once they get high and no one hits them.
mega mills is already at $636m annuity right now. if no one wins tonight, we will see it at $800 million friday. If no one hits Friday, I guarantee it will be a billion dollar annuity for the Xmas eve drawing. that would be pretty cool --- but very unlikely considering how many tickets will be bought between now and Friday if it doesn't hit tonight.
Quote: sodawaterlotto jackpots increase a lot faster once they get high and no one hits them.
mega mills is already at $636m annuity right now. if no one wins tonight, we will see it at $800 million friday. If no one hits Friday, I guarantee it will be a billion dollar annuity for the Xmas eve drawing. that would be pretty cool --- but very unlikely considering how many tickets will be bought between now and Friday if it doesn't hit tonight.
What kind of odds will you lay me if I take, "Doesn't hit."
Quote: Mission146What kind of odds will you lay me if I take, "Doesn't hit."
I'd be pretty happy laying you 4 to 1 for "doesn't hit" by Dec. 21. (including tonight's drawing)
So I decided I would invest $100 on 50 qp's with the megaplier.
I have all 15 megaplier numbers covered atleast 2 times.
I have the 7 megaplier covered 6 times and the 8 and 6 covered 5 times each(what a coincidence huh?)
I know I will win a few bucks out of $100.
I would like to hit all 5 of the regular numbers since I have the megaplier on all tickets so that winner would be 2 million or more.
I ran all the numbers through the TN lottery website and the best these combos ever made was 3 regular numbers.
We have never had a jackpot winner in TN though.I probably should have paid the tigermarket cashier $20 and let him kick me in the balls one swift time.It might have saved me $72!
KB1
Quote: KB1I probably should have paid the tigermarket cashier $20 and let him kick me in the balls one swift time.It might have saved me $72!
KB1
That really depends on how hard he kicked, and what your deductable and copay situation looks like.
KB1
Quote: bbbbccccThat really depends on how hard he kicked, and what your deductable and copay situation looks like.
In fairness, if he made it so you couldn't have kids, you could save hundreds of thousands of dollars!
Quote: sodawaterI'd be pretty happy laying you 4 to 1 for "doesn't hit" by Dec. 21. (including tonight's drawing)
Give me thirty minutes to decide, sorry, been reading something...
Quote: Mission146http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/mit-students-scammed-massachusetts-state-lottery-8-million-report-article-1.1128482
This is better, State's report, excellent read, 25 pages. I highly recommend reading it!
http://www.mass.gov/ig/publications/reports-and-recommendations/2012/lottery-cash-winfall-letter-july-2012.pdf
Quote: sodawaterI'd be pretty happy laying you 4 to 1 for "doesn't hit" by Dec. 21. (including tonight's drawing)
No way!
I'm talking about it not hitting over the next TWO drawings, not tonight's drawing only!!! You'll have to lay more than that!
The Mega Millions jackpot has not yet been hit in its current format. Since it increased the odds of a jackpot hit to 258m to 1, it's been rolling over since Oct. 2, 2013.
However, my thinking is they are going to sell at least 500 million tickets between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20, assuming it does not hit tonight. So I would like my chances at 1:4.
Quote: mickeycrimmHow about hittable odds? Bill Nye the Science Guy just dissed the lottery on CNN. You have much better odds of being killed by a vending machine, 1 in 112 million.
Hey you never know:
Although I can't bash Bill Nye, there was that one time he did save Seattle:
Quote: sodawaterI was saying that I think it will hit sometime in the next two drawings. Meaning tonight's or Friday the 20th. You wanted the other side, right? You wanted to bet that it would not hit either of the next two drawings? That's what I was offering 4 to 1 for.
The Mega Millions jackpot has not yet been hit in its current format. Since it increased the odds of a jackpot hit to 258m to 1, it's been rolling over since Oct. 2, 2013.
However, my thinking is they are going to sell at least 500 million tickets between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20, assuming it does not hit tonight. So I would like my chances at 1:4.
My thinking is as follows:
The MegaMillions Jackpot amount went up by $211,000,000, which I'm guessing means that there were approximately 422,000,000 tickets sold for the last drawing. Given that this is the case, and that there will be more sales this time, the odds of no one winning tonight are substantially less than 50%, therefore, taking the 4:1 for two drawings is not a good bet for me. I'd have to believe each drawing has an average 50% chance of winning, and then two consecutive to fail would be 25% to happen.
Unfortunately, we have no bet under your terms because I believe it is more than 50% likely to be won tonight, which makes it substantially more than 50% likely to hit the next drawing, assuming it doesn't hit this one.
Quote: sodawaterJust bought 10,000 fake tickets on the simulator and did not win a single prize over $5. Total winnings for $10,000 spent were $900.
This thing is depressing. Select "max" and "start" and watch how bad the odds are:
http://justwebware.com/megamillions/megamillions.html
You can "check" your numbers going back on the Powerball as well. I checked the numbers I would play and in the recorded history...I would have hit two numbers and that's the most. Poor tax, indeed.
Quote: Soft17True. I wasn't really calculating anything.
Since the minimum raise on lottery is $5MM per drawing, it will take a while to hit $1Billion.
Also, even with Annuity, it will be $500MM - 25% Fed Tax.
With an average Interest loan rate of 5%/Year on the $280MM loan, the interest will cost more then the winning LOL.
25% federal tax? anything over $450k ($400k if single) will be taxed at 39.6%, just like ordinary income. On a $500MM win, each year's distribution would be $20MM. So, 95% of each year's distribution would be taxed at the 39.6% rate.
Quote: Mission146My thinking is as follows:
The MegaMillions Jackpot amount went up by $211,000,000, which I'm guessing means that there were approximately 422,000,000 tickets sold for the last drawing. Given that this is the case, and that there will be more sales this time, the odds of no one winning tonight are substantially less than 50%, therefore, taking the 4:1 for two drawings is not a good bet for me. I'd have to believe each drawing has an average 50% chance of winning, and then two consecutive to fail would be 25% to happen.
Unfortunately, we have no bet under your terms because I believe it is more than 50% likely to be won tonight, which makes it substantially more than 50% likely to hit the next drawing, assuming it doesn't hit this one.
Yeah... I understand your thinking. I agree that if it doesn't hit tonight, the next drawing is going to be well over 50%.
By the way, just for the sake of correctness, if you thought it would have a 50% chance of winning each drawing, a fair price would be 3 to 1 that it wouldn't hit either one. If you had a 25% shot at 4 to 1 you'd have a huge edge.
Quote: sodawaterYeah... I understand your thinking. I agree that if it doesn't hit tonight, the next drawing is going to be well over 50%.
By the way, just for the sake of correctness, if you thought it would have a 50% chance of winning each drawing, a fair price would be 3 to 1 that it wouldn't hit either one. If you had a 25% shot at 4 to 1 you'd have a huge edge.
I know. ;)
http://www.businessinsider.com/you-should-buy-a-mega-million-ticket-2013-12
