Amazon delivery drones.
Quote: beachbumbabsLove it in concept, hate it in practice. I have no doubt the FAA is hating it, too. Ultralights, RC's, gyrocopters, all that low-altitude stuff was no end of headaches, and several friends were killed in them, too. And how do these things not land on someone's head? What happens when they hit a bird? 1, theorhetically, yes. 100, no, especially when Amazon fulfillment center #29 is no longer the only airborne delivery service. Free commerce and all that, can't give any one company a monopoly running back and forth from hub to delivery points.
Not saying these are unsolvable problems. Just that it'll be a lot longer than they think to get it up and running, and some serious questions before then.
I offered up a bet on another forum. I believe that Amazon will have a functional prototype of this delivery drone working in at least a closed beta by the end of 2017. Now, I didn't get down to specific terms yet at that forum, but I have started thinking about them. One of the terms is that it can happen in any country, not just the US. So the regulatory burden might be lighter in another country; but at the same time, they will probably be proactively trying to stay within whatever the eventual FAA regulations are, so they can launch in the US ASAP.
Anyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.
Agricultural surveillance, pipeline surveillance, mapping, Search And Rescue (wilderness and Suburban), photography, real estate development, mineral prospecting... fortunes are being made elsewhere while the FAA tells American firms to go twiddle their thumbs.
(Brought over from Cloud Thread)....
Note: Mostly the GPS systems are trusted... so they process the strongest signal they receive and are easily duped by a rogue signal. It was already done with a Super Luxury yacht. The crew did not realize they were off course .... but it was an experiment approved by the owner of the yacht.
Oh, an electric helicopter was introduced.... silently watching to swoop down and deliver your package from Amazon.
Bezos is a very smart dude. Amazon is getting lots of free press about this during prime shopping season, which is probably the original plan.
Quote: 1BBSenator Ed Markey (D-MA) saw 60 Minutes and is already on it. He wants to set clear rules on these things to protect the privacy and safety of the public.
Naturally a liberal would be concerned about privacy, unless of course he wants to require you to buy something. Or if that privacy involves your gun rights, or.......
Quote: AcesAndEightsDecided to split off to a new thread, not to derail Nareed's hate of The Cloude...
I offered up a bet on another forum. I believe that Amazon will have a functional prototype of this delivery drone working in at least a closed beta by the end of 2017. Now, I didn't get down to specific terms yet at that forum, but I have started thinking about them. One of the terms is that it can happen in any country, not just the US. So the regulatory burden might be lighter in another country; but at the same time, they will probably be proactively trying to stay within whatever the eventual FAA regulations are, so they can launch in the US ASAP.
Anyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.
Aces,
I hope you got your bet secured already. I did that job for several years with the FAA, working on requirements and prototype equipment as a liaison, which meant I saw it all from the project executive level as it was being built, from requirements to blueprints to test to prototype to fielded unit. By our definition, Amazon already has a functional prototype working in a closed beta (probably on one of their fulfillment campuses, or else they went through the process to get the test waivers, but if they kept it on their private property it's unlikely they got the waiver), unless that was trick photography or cgi, and you win your bet. The rest is just jurisdiction.
Quote: beachbumbabsAces,
I hope you got your bet secured already. I did that job for several years with the FAA, working on requirements and prototype equipment as a liaison, which meant I saw it all from the project executive level as it was being built, from requirements to blueprints to test to prototype to fielded unit. By our definition, Amazon already has a functional prototype working in a closed beta (probably on one of their fulfillment campuses, or else they went through the process to get the test waivers, but if they kept it on their private property it's unlikely they got the waiver), unless that was trick photography or cgi, and you win your bet. The rest is just jurisdiction.
This is why betting terms are important :)
"Closed beta" may be too restrictive. For me to win the bet as I'm envisioning it (no one has taken me up on it so there are no official terms), Amazon would have to offer the service to real customers. It may be a "closed beta" in that not all customers are eligible. Maybe it's just a certain locality, or a subset of customers who got on a list, or a combination of the two or something. But it would have to be delivering real goods, from a real order, to a real customer.
It'd be just like a video game. Shoot a flying robot and treasure drops for you to collect.
I hope these things fly high, or many of my country kinfolk just got a new hunting season.
That skyjack cost four hundred dollars but its fancy.
All you have to do is generate strong GPS signals since drones usually do not challenge any signals they receive or know what to do if there is doubt as to a signal.
Quote: AcesAndEightsAnyway, if anyone wants to bet even money against me, bring it on. Or propose a different betting line or a different date, and I will consider it.
May I have $20 on the "no."
Quote: AcesAndEightsDecided to split off to a new thread, not to derail Nareed's hate of The Cloude...
I don't hate "the cloud." I just want to opt out of it
Quote: FleaStiffWhy shoot? A game warden might be around.
That skyjack cost four hundred dollars but its fancy.
All you have to do is generate strong GPS signals since drones usually do not challenge any signals they receive or know what to do if there is doubt as to a signal.
$400? I could get 1,000 rounds of #00 buckshot for $400. And wouldn't have to know tech stuff, or need batteries, or transmit a signal The Man could trace.
The robot might even be carrying a skyjack as a treasure, and then we'd have one anyways. It could even be carrying a new gun, or more ammo, or some pain meds, or all three Mighty Ducks dvds... the possibilities are endless.
Quote: WizardMay I have $20 on the "no."
Awesome! Let's make sure we have the terms straight (as Babs pointed out above).
For me to win the bet, the following terms must be satisfied no later than 2017-12-31 23:59 Pacific time (we're both in Pacific time so this is easy)
- Amazon must have delivered a package to a real Amazon customer using an unmanned aerial drone
- Said customer is NOT required to live in the United States
- The service does not need to be available to all Amazon customers, or even all customers within a certain country, but must be available to some subset of customers (not just one test customer, for example)
If the conditions are not met, Wiz wins the bet. I can't think of other ones off the top of my head, but I feel like we're both in tune with the "spirit" of the bet.
In the event of a disagreement, we should have an arbiter. I would nominate Mission, although he may not want to sign up for such a responsibility 4 years into the future :)
For the nonce, its still good publicity but as traffic and parking become problems who knows what solutions will be found. Already shipping one big box to a Mail Box etc near a university can be cheaper than shipping separate boxes to various students and professors.Quote: tournamentkingThere will NEVER be regular deliveries made by silly drones.
I don't think delivery drones will be in use any time soon, but its not as absurd an idea as is being made out.
I think it is going to much more likely that we will all have $200 3-D printers in our homes.
You will 'buy' a one time 'blueprint' to create the object. It will be yours as soon as it is made. No delivery needed.
Of course, there is still logistics about materials and electronics, but they are just details.......
So how could one print a "real" object?
Quote: FleaStiffSuch printers seem to only print in plastic right now... no steel, no copper, no rubber.
So how could one print a "real" object?
If a 3D printer could print a 3D printer, how many 3D printers that are printed from the original 3D printer can print more printers until the universe collapses on itself, like dividing by 0?
Quote: FleaStiffSuch printers seem to only print in plastic right now... no steel, no copper, no rubber.
So how could one print a "real" object?
You can make plastic parts, including gears. Someone made this. I doubt the motors were printed though.
Quote: rxwineYou can make plastic parts, including gears. Someone made this. I doubt the motors were printed though.
Its 1350.00. It comes pretty much fully assembled after having been 3D printed on OTHER printers, not the consumer's printer.
And for 1350, I will dance the Salsa.
Seems to me the only way it would work without Amazon personnel at the receiving end would be to have special safe reception sites. This could happen if a company or an organization received the package. Plus maybe some rich guy. Plus maybe people could drive to a reception center nearby.
If these reception centers never make it to ordinary citizens' homes, is the "no" bet a winner? [edited]
Quote: odiousgambitIf these reception centers never make it to ordinary citizens' homes, is the "no" bet a winner? [edited]
The Wiz hasn't confirmed our bet, and no one else took me up on it. But I would judge that the "no" bet would be a winner, if the drones never made it to a normal home. You would probably have to pin a giant QR code on the front of your porch or something.
But if the drones can only deliver to specialized reception sites, and then you have to schlep it back to your house, then I definitely wouldn't have won the bet.
