Not about Betting the 2016 Election...about the election.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Actually, until George H.W. Bush, no incumbent vice-president had gotten elected president since Martin Van Buren back in 1836.

Does Johnson count?

The office of the president is to important to be left up to a vote.

Both possible winners has already been decided.

Quote: petroglyph

Does Johnson count?

He wasn't an incumbent VP when he was elected.

Stick a fork in the Clintons, they're done. Too old,
too familiar, nothing new, people are sick of them.

Christie is charismatic as hell, pulls no punches, and
by 2016 will have lost most of the weight. He looks
a lot better already, he's going to be tough to beat.
He has a bully pulpit as NJ gov and he'll use it to the
max in the next 2 years.

The Tea party absolutely hate Christie. That alone should get him a lot of swing voters.

Quote: EvenBob

Stick a fork in the Clintons, they're done. Too old,
too familiar, nothing new, people are sick of them.

Christie is charismatic as hell, pulls no punches, and
by 2016 will have lost most of the weight. He looks
a lot better already, he's going to be tough to beat.
He has a bully pulpit as NJ gov and he'll use it to the
max in the next 2 years.

So you'd buy Christie and sell Clinton at these odds, then? I think I'd do the opposite. I don't like either candidate, but Hillary has a much easier path through the primaries.

Quote: EvenBob

Stick a fork in the Clintons, they're done. Too old,
too familiar, nothing new, people are sick of them.

Christie is charismatic as hell, pulls no punches, and
by 2016 will have lost most of the weight. He looks
a lot better already, he's going to be tough to beat.
He has a bully pulpit as NJ gov and he'll use it to the
max in the next 2 years.

I'd love to be wrong about my prediction, but the media will do to Christie exactly what they did to McCain in '08. They loved him...until he ran against Obama. Again, I'd be more than happy to eat crow, but the liberal media is so darn predictable.

Quote: Buzzard

The Tea party absolutely hate Christie. That alone should get him a lot of swing voters.

Yeah, like all of the swing voters that McCain and Romney got? *chuckle*

Quote: EvenBob

Stick a fork in the Clintons, they're done. Too old,
too familiar, nothing new, people are sick of them.

Christie is charismatic as hell, pulls no punches, and
by 2016 will have lost most of the weight. He looks
a lot better already, he's going to be tough to beat.
He has a bully pulpit as NJ gov and he'll use it to the
max in the next 2 years.

Maybe John Corzine could run as his VP?

But at the end of the primaries, she will still be Hillary.

" Yeah, like all of the swing voters that McCain and Romney got? *chuckle* "

Romney did not put enough distance between him and the tea party. Christie won't make that mistake. Nor pick an unqualified bimbo
as his VP.

The Clinton's 'sell buy' date has long expired.
They're old and tired and so is their message.
Even Dem's are sick of them, they're especially
sick of Hillary. She was supposed to win in 08,
and now it's a shoe in AGAIN? I don't think so,
she had her chance.

Quote: Buzzard

" Yeah, like all of the swing voters that McCain and Romney got? *chuckle* "

Romney did not put enough distance between him and the tea party. Christie won't make that mistake. Nor pick an unqualified bimbo
as his VP.

Decided to move my response here since the Wizard wants to focus specifically on betting in this thread.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/off-topic/15693-2016-election/7/#post289816

I'm staying here.

Quote: EvenBob

The Clinton's 'sell buy' date has long expired.
They're old and tired and so is their message.
Even Dem's are sick of them, they're especially
sick of Hillary. She was supposed to win in 08,
and now it's a shoe in AGAIN? I don't think so,
she had her chance.

Hils is now a shoe in to win the nomination and election.

Oh dear.

Quote: Buzzard

I'm staying here.

I don't blame you. ;)

Quote: thecesspit

Hils is now a shoe in to win the nomination and election.
.

Too bad it's an old smelly shoe that doesn't fit
anymore, and will be completely lost by 2016.
Time for her and the serial philanderer to shuffle
off into the sunset..

I don't mean to go against wizards wishes and get political, but to me it's all about who the democratic nominee will be, which at this point is most likely Hillary. I saw a show in the last week that stated in the last 6 presidential elections, that's 4 won by democrats and two George W Bush wins, that 18 states plus the District of Columbia voted democrat each of those elections for a total of 241 electoral votes.

So that is the starting point for the Democrats. There is a pretty strong chance they start with 241 electoral votes, with 270 needed. I think the repubs start with 190 or there about. That's a huge difference. Now swings states, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and 3 southwest states of New mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Virginia is trending Democrat. It's just a fact. More Democrats have moved into the northern part of state in last decade. Sure off year elections like this years governors race will be close, because democrats don't vote in off year elections. But in a presidential election, it's hard to see Virginia not going democrat. Still reasonably close within 3-5 points but definitely now leaning Democrat.

Now the 3 southwest states all have growing Latino populations, and Latinos vote Democrat. Those states are now all 3 leaning Democrat and will grow more Democratic each cycle. These 3 southwest states and Virginia and the dems are already there. Already to 270. The true swings states of Ohio, Florida, no longer even matter. So to me the election is almost over before it starts. The Democratic candidate will have a much stronger chance to become president. That's just the way things are currently set up and trending. Just like the way things are currently set up, the house of reps will likely stay republican for quite a while. So the big trick here is just to figure who the democratic nominee will be.

Now, I consider myself an independent, although in fairness, I am more in sync with Democratic views most of the time, especially social type issues that are important to me, so you would think I would be pleased that the Democrats currently have a built in advantage, but I am not. Even though it's working in my favor currently, this is exactly what's wrong with the electoral college system. Every vote is not equal. A few undecided in just a handful of states, really gets to decide who is president. So lame. So broken.

Quote: EvenBob

Too bad it's an old smelly shoe that doesn't fit
anymore, and will be completely lost by 2016.
Time for her and the serial philanderer to shuffle
off into the sunset..

Your anti-endorsement is all they needed, you know.

Quote: kewlj

I saw a show in the as week that stated in the last 6 presidential elections, that's 4 won by democrats and two George W Bush wins, that 18 states plus the District of Columbia voted democrat each of those elections for a total of 241 electoral votes.

So that is the starting point for the Democrats. There is a pretty strong chance they start with 241 electoral votes, with 270 needed...So to me the election is almost over before it starts.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Also, Dems have won the popular vote in FIVE out of the last 6 elections, which can't be ignored. Furthermore, Republicans had a money advantage for years, but not anymore. Dems have the money advantage now, and it isn't going to change any time soon.

Quote: kewlj

this us exactly what's wrong with the electoral college system. Every vote is not equal. A few undecided in just a handful of states, really gets to decide who is president.

I will say this. If we abolished the electoral college, it would be an even bigger blowout for the Dems. All they would have to do is campaign in every large city in America, and the election would be theirs. OTOH, Republicans would have to cover every other part of the country. Looking at logistics alone, this would give the Dems a huge advantage.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Dems have the money advantage now, and it isn't going to change any time soon.

And all this time I'd thought that the Koch brothers were conservatives. I guess a person really does learn something new every day!

Quote: rdw4potus

And all this time I'd thought that the Koch brothers were conservatives. I guess a person really does learn something new every day!

Just look at the numbers, past & current. Democrats are clearly winning the money race and have been doing so for several years now. Hell, even John Kerry outraised Bush back in '04!

Thanks for splitting this thread so I can block it. Methinks you'll have to do the same thing several more times...some people have a hard time compartmentalizing betting on politics from politics in general.

Quote: Buzzard

Romney did not put enough distance between him and the tea party. Christie won't make that mistake. Nor pick an unqualified bimbo
as his VP.

Who picked an unqualified bimbo as VP? Mondale??

Quote: AZDuffman

Who picked an unqualified bimbo as VP? Mondale??

I wasn't aware there was a qualification to be VP, or President for that matter. Apart from being elected by the populace.

I do not think Geraldine could see Russia from her front porch in New York. She was however during Meet the Press asked, "Do you think that in any way the Soviets might be tempted to try to take advantage of you simply because you are a woman?"

McCain had my vote until he announced his VP. Had I been sure he would have served out his 1st and 2nd term even, he would have got my vote, Honestly !

Quote: Buzzard

I do not think Geraldine could see Russia from her front porch in New York.

Actually, I think that you "do not think" about this issue, period. OTOH, you do have issues separating Saturday Night Live from reality.

Quote: Buzzard

McCain had my vote until he announced his VP.

So instead of voting for the ticket with the unqualified vice-presidential candidate, you voted for the ticket with the unqualified presidential candidate?!?!?

Actually I do have problems with SNL. It has reruns at strange hours and I am never sure if I am watching a SNL skit or an actual interview with a Tea party candidate.

Quote: Buzzard

Actually I do have problems with SNL. It has reruns at strange hours and I am never sure if I am watching a SNL skit or an actual interview with a Tea party candidate.

The easiest way to tell is the interview with the Tea Party candidate will have more background laughter.

Quote: Buzzard

I do not think Geraldine could see Russia from her front porch in New York. She was however during Meet the Press asked, "Do you think that in any way the Soviets might be tempted to try to take advantage of you simply because you are a woman?"

McCain had my vote until he announced his VP. Had I been sure he would have served out his 1st and 2nd term even, he would have got my vote, Honestly !

I voted for Sarah Palin for Governor. And I did it for the right reasons. She was very attractive and if I'm going to have to watch some politician lying to me I might as well be able to enjoy the eye candy when I hit the mute button.

She actually turned out to be a decent governor, she was the first one in a while who stood up to the oil company's who tend to heavily influence the politicians opinions up North.

I think there are a couple places where Russia can be seen in far western Ak, and it's a running joke up there. Sarah was kind of a simple decent type of person as one might expect from some from the Midwest. I will say she wasn't presidential material. That takes a pretty special kind of scoundrel.

What happened to the poll for this thread? Wasn't one of the choices "other"? Ok, in order to stay ot, the chances we get the pres. we deserve are close to 100%.

I thought a lot more of McCain before he gave Col. Bui Tin a big hug, and called the families of the POW's charlatans whiners and lunatics. [1991]

Quote: petroglyph

What happened to the poll for this thread? Wasn't one of the choices "other"? Ok, in order to stay ot, the chances we get the pres. we deserve are close to 100%.

Poll is in the Wiz's thread.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/15794-betting-the-2016-election/2/#post289860

I like the Wiz's thread better then this one.

Quote: terapined

Poll is in the Wiz's thread.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/other-games/15794-betting-the-2016-election/2/#post289860

I like the Wiz's thread better then this one.

I went over and checked and I see you were for Elizabeth Warren.

If for some reason the power's that be feel the need to run a Democratic woman, I think she would be a great choice. Another great woman would be Catherine Austin Fitts. Instead we get Feinstein or Boxer. Or some other mega rich bitch.

She has said some pretty honorable things and stayed with them even after elected. That politicking has got to be one ugly cutthroat business.

I don't have to agree with a candidate completely to think them the best. If I had the chance I would proudly vote for Warren. I didn't like that she seemed to go with the gun control and giving the United Nations authority in country. I'm more of and old fashioned Nationalist when matters of constitutionality are concerned.

Quote: Beethoven9th

So instead of voting for the ticket with the unqualified vice-presidential candidate, you voted for the ticket with the unqualified presidential candidate?!?!?

+1

Quote: Buzzard

McCain had my vote until he announced his VP. Had I been sure he would have served out his 1st and 2nd term even, he would have got my vote, Honestly !

Right, you cannot tell Sarah Palin from Tina Fey and you expect anyone to believe this? If everyone who claims this was actually telling the truth then McCain would have carried all 50 states had he only picked someone else.

Quote: AZDuffman

Right, you cannot tell Sarah Palin from Tina Fey and you expect anyone to believe this? If everyone who claims this was actually telling the truth then McCain would have carried all 50 states had he only picked someone else.

I think that it's funny how the flied lice story guy is casting aspersions on other people's truthiness.

Quote: s2dbaker

I think that it's funny how the flied lice story guy is casting aspersions on other people's truthiness.

.

What is untruthful? He could not tell the difference between Sarah Palin and Tina Fey. His statement showed it clearly. And his behavior is common to liberals who like to say "they always voted GOP until this conservative wing took over." For some reason, liberals have been pulling this act online since 2000. I am merely calling him out on it.

OTOH I do not quite understand why you want to continue being jerkey about the flied lice story. It happened. Accept it.

Maybe you are upset that those who challenged me on how Japanese people have trouble with R's/L's in English? And that I additionally gave an example of this by citing the changing of "Ronald McDonald" to "Donald McDonald?"

Quote: AZDuffman

OTOH I do not quite understand why you want to continue being jerkey about the flied lice story. It happened. Accept it.

You're funny :)
No, it didn't happen. I'm so sorry.

Quote: s2dbaker

You're funny :)
No, it didn't happen. I'm so sorry.

Right, you were there with me and heard the entire thing different than I heard it.