How to win $100,000 at a table game with a $10 bet
October 21st, 2013 at 3:09:37 PM
permalink
a good time as any to discuss the title from this article
How to win $1 million at a table game with a $10 bet
https://easy.vegas/gambling/how-to-win-million-dollars
"So now we just need to pick a game to play.
We want a game with a low house edge,
because that will give us the best chance of winning.
That rules out roulette, since its house edge is a whopping 5.26%"
Questions and discuss
1) Do you agree with the above quote??
2) What would be the best game to play - or games (highest probability of success)
at turning $10 into $100,000
with a max bet of $50,000
in other words, maybe you have a different game and betting method in mind?
Looks like MB settled on
Baccarat, player
opinions
with and without math are allowed.
(comments about my lack of head hair,
broken upper front teeth and poor eye vision
are welcomed too)
Here is what I get
I might add to this later
A bit different from MB's sim result order
and I did add in a few Roulette bets
(MB thought against it - house edge too high)
these are calculated (Excel and in R)
Craps odds not included
as per the SN Ethier paper 'Improving on Bold Play at Craps" shows this to be the best
using the Don't Pass and the Lay odds)
I also did not consider blackjack as my simulator is on a computer
that does not like me right now.
other games, maybe
maybe a high payout side bet? maybe
using Bold Play
My method of choice.
Bet what is needed to hit target goal
(or max bet allowed) or go all-in trying
Turn $10 into $100,000
with a max bet of $50,000
*1 in* results
#1 - 0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 10,853.08
#2 - 00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 11,753.04
It should be noted that in Las Vegas one may be limited
with a straight-up bet. $50k way too high.
I do not know. The above is with a $3000 max bet allowed.
here is with $2000 straight-up bet if allowed.
#1 - 0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 11,002
00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 12,062
here is with $1000 straight-up bet if allowed.
0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 21,249
00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 24,070
#3 - Baccarat Banker: 11,809.54
#4 - Baccarat Player: 12,059.84
and so on
Craps Don't Pass: 12,122.74
Craps Pass Line: 12,142.1
0 Roulette - even money bets: 14,528.4
Craps 30 to 1 bet: 15,649.35
00 Roulette - even money bets: 20,908.66
other considerations
MB also says this in his article:
"That improves our chances to 1 in 125,926 for baccarat and 1 in 128,110 for craps.
(You can't easily calculate that, ..."
Sure one can
(I just removed the 't)
And it is quite easy
(as easy or easier as running a sim IMO)
In Excel one can get very accurate results to say 2 to 3 decimal places
with very little effort and simple math.
Turning Excel into some code to run in R for example
a lifesaver (time saver too, happy I found it)
it (R code) was done by BruceZ over at 2+2 and matches perfectly with my Excel results
(with way less effort, that I like a lot)
R is a free program
here is another one for those 1/37 or 1/36 type of bets
with a greater accuracy one can change
Have fun
and win $100k or more on your next casino visit!
How to win $1 million at a table game with a $10 bet
https://easy.vegas/gambling/how-to-win-million-dollars
from the article:Quote: MoscaI got up, got showered and dressed, and went to work.
Here is Michael Bluejay's system for winning $1,000,000.
It is readily and publicly available on his website.
"So now we just need to pick a game to play.
We want a game with a low house edge,
because that will give us the best chance of winning.
That rules out roulette, since its house edge is a whopping 5.26%"
Questions and discuss
1) Do you agree with the above quote??
2) What would be the best game to play - or games (highest probability of success)
at turning $10 into $100,000
with a max bet of $50,000
in other words, maybe you have a different game and betting method in mind?
Looks like MB settled on
Baccarat, player
opinions
with and without math are allowed.
(comments about my lack of head hair,
broken upper front teeth and poor eye vision
are welcomed too)
Here is what I get
I might add to this later
A bit different from MB's sim result order
and I did add in a few Roulette bets
(MB thought against it - house edge too high)
these are calculated (Excel and in R)
Craps odds not included
as per the SN Ethier paper 'Improving on Bold Play at Craps" shows this to be the best
using the Don't Pass and the Lay odds)
I also did not consider blackjack as my simulator is on a computer
that does not like me right now.
other games, maybe
maybe a high payout side bet? maybe
using Bold Play
My method of choice.
Bet what is needed to hit target goal
(or max bet allowed) or go all-in trying
Turn $10 into $100,000
with a max bet of $50,000
*1 in* results
#1 - 0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 10,853.08
#2 - 00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 11,753.04
It should be noted that in Las Vegas one may be limited
with a straight-up bet. $50k way too high.
I do not know. The above is with a $3000 max bet allowed.
here is with $2000 straight-up bet if allowed.
#1 - 0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 11,002
00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 12,062
here is with $1000 straight-up bet if allowed.
0 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 21,249
00 Roulette - 1# straight-up: 24,070
#3 - Baccarat Banker: 11,809.54
#4 - Baccarat Player: 12,059.84
and so on
Craps Don't Pass: 12,122.74
Craps Pass Line: 12,142.1
0 Roulette - even money bets: 14,528.4
Craps 30 to 1 bet: 15,649.35
00 Roulette - even money bets: 20,908.66
other considerations
MB also says this in his article:
"That improves our chances to 1 in 125,926 for baccarat and 1 in 128,110 for craps.
(You can't easily calculate that, ..."
Sure one can
(I just removed the 't)
And it is quite easy
(as easy or easier as running a sim IMO)
In Excel one can get very accurate results to say 2 to 3 decimal places
with very little effort and simple math.
Turning Excel into some code to run in R for example
a lifesaver (time saver too, happy I found it)
it (R code) was done by BruceZ over at 2+2 and matches perfectly with my Excel results
(with way less effort, that I like a lot)
R is a free program
br = 10 # Starting Bankroll
goal = 100000 # Target bankroll
odds = 1 # Payoff Odds
p = (244/495) # P(win bet) Pass Line Craps
max_bet = 50000 # Table max - No max just make higher than goal
prob = 0
p_fail = 1
count = 0
while ( (br >= 1) & (br < goal) & (count < 1000) ) {
# Compute probability of completing parlay up
bet = min(br,max_bet)
consec = 0
while (br + bet*odds <= goal) {
br = br + bet*odds
consec = consec + 1
bet = min(br,max_bet)
}
p_parlay = p^consec
# Compute probability of reaching goal
bets = 0
if (br < goal) {
while ( min(br,max_bet) >= ceiling((goal-br)/odds) ) {
br = br - ceiling((goal-br)/odds)
bets = bets + 1
}
}
p_goal = ifelse(bets, 1-(1-p)^bets, 1)
delta = p_fail*p_parlay*p_goal
prob = prob + delta
p_fail = p_fail*p_parlay*(1-p)^bets
count = count + 1
}
prob # Probability of reaching goal
1/prob
delta
count
here is another one for those 1/37 or 1/36 type of bets
with a greater accuracy one can change
pdoub = function(br,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob=1) {
if (br < 1 | prob < thresh) return(0)
bet = ceiling((goal-br)/odds) # bet needed to reach goal
limit = min(br,max_bet) # limit = max bet possible
if ( bet < limit )
pwin + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-bet,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin))
else
pwin*pdoubb(br+odds*limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*pwin) + (1-pwin)*pdoubb(br-limit,goal,max_bet,pwin,odds,thresh,prob*(1-pwin))
}
require(compiler)
pdoubb = cmpfun(pdoub)
system.time(p <- pdoubb(10,100000,3000,1/37,35,0.0000000001))
p
1/p
Have fun
and win $100k or more on your next casino visit!
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Feb 3, 2023
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
