PICK THE CRAP OUT OF IT
I bought in for 700.00. I waited until an individual shooter hits 2 points with no 7's in between. After the 2nd point, I bet the P & DP FOR 100.00 each. If a 7 pops, I started over. When the point was established I laid odds; 300 for a 4/10, 375 for a 5/9, or 480 for a 6/8. I waited for a resolution. Win or lose I'd tip, hit the cage and leave. Two casino trips per day.
My busy period of travel started in March. Over 26 trips my weeks ranged from up 2,170 to down 980. All tolled, I ended at 9,625 up.
So I put a little spending money in my pocket and had a blast.
So any expectations I should or should not have on my return to the road?
Would you change anything?
Minion here. Just learning. It's great that your strategy is working for you. I would think that past performance is no indicator of future success, but you're winning, having a blast, spending time and money you have available, not overdoing it - everything a gambler wants from gaming. Why change anything?
a bunch of waitingQuote: akaragsI bought in for 700.00.
I waited until an individual shooter hits 2 points with no 7's in between.
What if the 2,3 or 11 rolls? same?Quote: akaragsAfter the 2nd point, I bet the P & DP FOR 100.00 each.
If a 7 pops, I started over.
Or the dreaded 12 where you just lost $100
all about having fun... win or loseQuote: akaragsWhen the point was established I laid odds; 300 for a 4/10, 375 for a 5/9, or 480 for a 6/8.
I waited for a resolution.
Win or lose I'd tip, hit the cage and leave.
Two casino trips per day.
My busy period of travel started in March.
Over 26 trips my weeks ranged from up 2,170 to down 980. All tolled, I ended at 9,625 up.
So I put a little spending money in my pocket and had a blast.
Now are You saying you won because you WAITED
for an event that makes the shooter MORE likely to lose on the very next established point.
excellent!
again,Quote: akaragsSo any expectations I should or should not have on my return to the road?
you claim to be a winner because you wait a lot and
a shooter once they have won two points in a hand without any 7s rolled is more likely to 7 out on the next point.
nasty belief IMO
why change a winning system?Quote: akaragsWould you change anything?
keep it up
I don't get your title, "pick the crap out of it"
The 12 did pop up 5-6 times over that period. I thought it might by it was so infrequent.
Yes, I realize that even if I had waited for "X" number of points before betting, I'm still gambling on the probability for a 7 versus a Point number. As a Don't side bettor, that's what it boils down to. But the dice are squirrelly somehow.
Please understand, I don't consider it a system...I've just done tons of reading and it seemed plausible to side with the casino. The numbers I've read that show that there's a 93% + chance that a shooter will hit 3 or more points. Given those two, it would seem reasonable that it would be a good way to bet.
you are not betting with the casino if that is what you thinkQuote: akaragsPlease understand, I don't consider it a system...
I've just done tons of reading and it seemed plausible to side with the casino.
When you lay odds on the DP
you are ALWAYS more likely to win that bet.
You are making the best bet on a craps table the 0% HE odds bet.
most of your $$$ is there.
many will say you are just lucky to win betting that way, bet big to win and have fun,
and that
*system* is really a dumb one because you are betting more to win less.
Those that think this way are correct in their thinking also.
where you read this, sounds backwardsQuote: akaragsThe numbers I've read that show that there's a 93% + chance that a shooter will hit 3 or more points.
Placing most of your $$$ on the 0% odds bet is a good way to bet.Quote: akaragsGiven those two, it would seem reasonable that it would be a good way to bet.
Once a point is established, you have a greater chance of winning your Lay odds than losing.
Given that a shooter has JUST made 2 points in a row without any 7s...
the probability of them winning their next point (you losing your DP bets) remains
4or10: 3/9
5or9: 4/10
6or8: 5/11
the probability of you winning your DP bet with Lay odds would be
4or10: 6/9
5or9: 6/10
6or8: 6/11
Good Luck next trip
Yes, it may be "dumb" as you say, but was it just dumb luck over such a period?
You are correct, that statement was backwards...thanks! Multiple sites and many stickmen I encountered. 93% of all shooters will NOT hit 3 or more points.
Hey, is there any way of keeping track of shooters and numbers of rolls next time? I've seen a player with some sort of clicker/counter in ACity but he was snickered at a lot.
Quote: akarags
Hey, is there any way of keeping track of shooters and numbers of rolls next time? I've seen a player with some sort of clicker/counter in ACity but he was snickered at a lot.
Why? To predict the future?
The casino does not look for the 7 to take $$$.Quote: akaragsNot to sound like a simpleton, but when most of the money on the tables
I played on were people playing the traditional way,
and the casino is looking for the 7 to take that money,
That is not how the casino makes it's $$$ at Craps.
How would you set up a casino to guarantee that after so many bets are made, you WILL win $$$,
especially at Craps?
Casinos, and a great business model that is so simple,
They short pay the winners on every bet except the odds bets where they
pay true odds, no short pay at all.
All the casino wants is bets made, and many of them. The more the merrier.
More money wagered, more money the house can expect to win.
They do not care if the pass or don't pass wins or loses.
They deal in volume of bets, no one player can do the same in the same time frame
No, to document the past.Quote: AlanWhy? To predict the future?
How do you know World War 2 actually happened without it being documented unless you were there.
Stories passed down through time has worked well to some degree.
Like the cow that knocked over the lantern that caused the great Chicago fire.
a cow, no, a craps game and kids
Of course the person doing the documenting could be biased or just prone to make errors.
Quote: 7crapsNo, to document the past.
What difference does it make what happened in the past of a craps game? I wasn't there and I can tell you what happened, some won, but most lost. In fact, I'll predict that for future games.
So you're saying there's not?
I just thought that the style of play I used was a curiosity in how it worked. It did not work every time but I did not stray from the concept and enjoyed being at the table while I waited for those 2 consecutive points to be hit. I find the screwiness of how the dice fall to be fascinating. I'm no math wizard but the dice may know more than we give them credit for???
Quote: 7crapsThe casino does not look for the 7 to take $$$.
That is not how the casino makes it's $$$ at Craps.
It's not??? They sure pulled many chips off the table when the 7 did hit.
How would you set up a casino to guarantee that after so many bets are made, you WILL win $$$,
especially at Craps?
I wouldn't. Not a concern of mine. Mine is getting your input to possibly understand why, what I tried, worked so well and would it work again.
You are more versed in the game than I. So it makes sense to tap into your experience.
Casinos, and a great business model that is so simple.
So I thought a simple bet based off already documented processes would prove fruitful?
They deal in volume of bets, no one player can do the same in the same time frame]
Not sure what that means
It makes no difference on winning or losing your next betQuote: AlanWhat difference does it make what happened in the past of a craps game? I wasn't there and I can tell you what happened, some won, but most lost. In fact, I'll predict that for future games.
It makes a big difference in History and facts of what did roll.
Because I track the rolls of every session I play at,
I find it very amusing that almost all the Craps players know very little of what just rolled in the game going back 5 rolls or more.
One shooter (lets call him ME)
says he just rolled at least 15 rolls, in reality a quick look at my paper, sorry, just 7 rolls.
player: The 5 has not rolled in a while, says: Dealer $10 on the 5.
Dealer: $10 on 5. I agree it is due.
I look down.
Funny, I show 2 5s that rolled in the last 9 rolls.
I tell the dealer you just paid me on a win place5. dealer: no I did not... oh MAYBE you are right.
The players are all bitching and moaning that the table is too cold.
Player: The fuc***g shooters cant even win a pass line bet. Time to go get smashed.
I know there were just 20 come out rolls last 45 minutes and 10 of them won.
That is more than expectation but not a *fact* by any of the players.
Of course, I do miss some hardways,
mainly because the stick did not call it loud enough because no one had a hard way bet.
The classic is when I just sevened out, (happened to us all)
a few players are moaning out loud that I sucked as a shooter because they lost or did not win enough.
I glance at my paper and see I made 3 points, 2 hardways and a Yo on a cor.
I challenge them for $1000 right there for them to do better than what I just did.
Still, no takers, they all get quiet, every one of them.
The Box just laughs
The History of the (or any) current game is just that.
It does not have to predict anything.
I have more fun playing that way.
do not care about anyone else
Quote: 7crapsIt makes no difference on winning or losing your next bet
It makes a big difference in History and facts of what did roll.
Very true.
Quote: 7craps
I have more fun playing that way.
That's what matters..having fun.
Quote: 7crapsIt makes no difference on winning or losing your next bet
It makes a big difference in History and facts of what did roll.
Because I track the rolls of every session I play at,
Interesting... So how would I do that?
They are just following the rules of the game.Quote: akaragsQuote: 7crapsThe casino does not look for the 7 to take $$$.
That is not how the casino makes it's $$$ at Craps.
It's not??? They sure pulled many chips off the table when the 7 did hit.
What about a table full of Don't Pass players when a 7out happens?
The casino does not care if one or many players win.
They make their $$$ from thousands and thousands of wagers per day or more.
And the money they make is on a short pay to the winner, just like the Books at sports betting.
you want your team to win.
You bet $11 to win 10
same concept
I see many craps players scream with delight when a $1 Yo 11 wins and they get paid $15
I clap my hands for them!
They should have been paid $17 in a fair game.
They think the game IS fair because a win IS a win.
They were shorted on a win by $2.
The house edge right there.
makes you feel good when you win, but over time and many bets your chances
of winning against a house edge (short payoffs)
bet decreases with each bet made, never increases.
Your *system* of play is betting more $$$ on the Lay odds bet.
you are never getting shorted on the payoff
(as long as the odds are made for an exact payoff)
I gather you have no or very little understanding of what a 'house edge' bet
really is and
what it does to each bet you make and many bets over time.
(no big deal, you are in the majority)
many players believe they are NOT playing against the house, just other players.
But on every pot over $X the HOUSE
takes a small amount from that winning pot.
IF 10 players play long enough and the casino feeds them
so they do not have to leave the table except for nature call time,
the casino WILL get almost ALL the players $$$. They will be left with not enough to cover a blind.
Why?
The house edge
each winning pot got shorted.
slick I say
you have experienced good luck so far
your next 26 visits could easily experience the same luck but as bad luck
and nothing you can do about it
unless
you
REALLY know (more than average)
when a shooter is really NOT going to hit his very next point.
Your "short pay" explanation is accurate and understood.
I just wanted a method of play that gave me a fair shot of winning.
Is it not true that the dice don't have a memory?
Is it not true that 93% of all shooters DON'T hit 3 or more points?
Is it not true that over the long term probability will weigh itself out?
I was not in it for the long term. I was only there for 1 shooter or 11 shooters, 7 rolls or 70 rolls, to find those 2 consecutive points hit, placed my bet...then I left.
I'll be out again shortly until Dec. and will try it again and see...
Quote: akaragsI just wanted a method of play that gave me a fair shot of winning.
If you mean winning in the long run, then you are playing the wrong game. You will LOSE in the long run at craps because of the built in house advantage. If you're looking to win money consistently, then you need to play poker, VP, or count cards at BJ. And even then, it's tough to make money consistently unless you're really, really good.
and you have one.Quote: akaragsI just wanted a method of play that gave me a fair shot of winning.
betting most of your $$$ on the Odds bets at craps gives one the best chance at winning over X number of bets made
other than
trying to predict when a bet will more than on average because *that* shooter looks like he can win, or
*that* shooter just has made 2 points without any 7s
or
*that* shooter rolls lots hardways, bet more hardways.
but waiting for a certain event before betting makes no difference in your results.
each bet you make is an independent event even if *you* may not think it is.
you can make 1 bet each day for 10,000 days or make 10,000 in one day (a very long day)
your expected results will be the same.
shhh, do not let the dice hear you say thatQuote: akaragsIs it not true that the dice don't have a memory?
that looks to be a good average.Quote: akaragsIs it not true that 93% of all shooters DON'T hit 3 or more points?
But what would you say when 7 shooters in a row,
and I have seen this many times 20 years Dealing this game and over 30 years playing this game,
hits 3 points in a row or more. are the dice then not fair? The shooters are DIs?
probability or averages over a number of bets converges to it's theoritical values.Quote: akaragsIs it not true that over the long term probability will weigh itself out?
Who are we as humans
can tell it (probability) when that will happen and if it ever will happen?
How much time is needed?
No I hate coins
ten plastic balls in a bag.
2 different colors - 5 each color.
reach in and draw a ball and note the color. return ball, shake and repeat
Just like flipping a coin. 50/50 chance of getting your color. say red.
how many draws must one make to have a 95% chance that the percentage of Reds drawn is close to 50%?
How close?
OK
say, 50% +/- 0.1% (between 0.501 and 0.499
at least 960,365
too many draws
how about a 95% chance of being within 1% then
49% to 51%. close enough to 50%
9,604
and still a 1 in 20 shot of not being 1% close to 50%
Your 26 sessions means nothing, but you did have fun
that is really all that matters
Good Luck and have fun no matterQuote: akaragsI'll be out again shortly until Dec. and will try it again and see...
what the results end up being.
Quote: akaragsBut I don't have a long run? Each time I go to play is independent of any other time I've played before, right?
Um...no.
(Something tells me that the OP is in for a rude awakening once the other side of variance pays him a visit)
Quote: Beethoven9thUm...no.
(Something tells me that the OP is in for a rude awakening once the other side of variance pays him a visit)
What's the OP? Other side of the variance?
Quote: akaragsWhat's the OP? Other side of the variance?
If each roll is independent of itself then would each trip I make to the table be independent of any previous trip? Tables don't have memories, do they?
Variance is the distance away from the mean return (HE) expected over the lifetime of the game, and is the square of the standard deviation when millions of results are plotted You are experiencing a very positive variance. It's the mathematical way of describing luck, or an extreme swing away from what's expected and predicted by the calculation of event occurence. Each trip is independent, but the game itself is made up of many bets, each one has its own edge that's favorable to the house, and all the craps games within the US have very similar odds pays, if not identical. You're on a math site, and they're saying that, as you play the game longer and longer, the odds will catch up to you; for you, that there will be losses. They're saying there is no system that works, and that you don't have enough instances by many thousands to have identified one that does. But not everyone on this site thinks that systems don't work, so it generates a lot of discussion whenever someone presents one as you have, which happens quite often. And, no, tables don't have memories.
I'm not an expert. Just a newbie a few months ahead of you on here. YMMV.
Quote: Dicenor33I've seen all type of betting systems , but when it comes to laying odds things get a bit tricky . Let's face it's no brainier "house" can loose big to a dark side player ,do why they come up with the opposite betting? I think , to a new player it looks extremely attractive to be on a dark side , this is the way for people to get "hooked" to the game . If the player will start to think that somehow he outsmarted the house the staff will either steer them toward the "normal" play or they 'll show you a door .
I guess we're splitting hairs when I say I don't see it as a system. I've been hooked on this fascinating game for a long time but have always played in moderation. I would never feel as if I outsmarted anyone but I'm never there long enough to be steered or shown the door.
But back to my original ?...why would any trip to any table not be an arbitrary trip to an arbitrary table, to buy in and wait to see one event occur (2 consecutive points with no 7), place one bet and leave???
Quote: akaragsIf each roll is independent of itself then would each trip I make to the table be independent of any previous trip? Tables don't have memories, do they?
Like I said before, you are in for a rude awakening sometime in the future. Have fun while you're ahead though. (And I mean that sincerely, not in a smarta** way)
Quote: akaragsI guess we're splitting hairs when I say I don't see it as a system. I've been hooked on this fascinating game for a long time but have always played in moderation. I would never feel as if I outsmarted anyone but I'm never there long enough to be steered or shown the door.
But back to my original ?...why would any trip to any table not be an arbitrary trip to an arbitrary table, to buy in and wait to see one event occur (2 consecutive points with no 7), place one bet and leave???
Splitting back, then, I guess, because you have a triggering event within the game you watch for, you have a specific series of steps you take when you see that event, it has a definite stopping point, and you've developed an expectation of return that is different from the game's design. I would call that a "betting system". And I hope it continues to work for you.
Quote: beachbumbabsOP is the Original Poster, in this case, you.
Variance is the distance away from the mean return (HE) expected over the lifetime of the game, and is the square of the standard deviation when millions of results are plotted You are experiencing a very positive variance. It's the mathematical way of describing luck, or an extreme swing away from what's expected and predicted by the calculation of event occurence. Each trip is independent, but the game itself is made up of many bets, each one has its own edge that's favorable to the house, and all the craps games within the US have very similar odds pays, if not identical. You're on a math site, and they're saying that, as you play the game longer and longer, the odds will catch up to you; for you, that there will be losses. They're saying there is no system that works, and that you don't have enough instances by many thousands to have identified one that does. But not everyone on this site thinks that systems don't work, so it generates a lot of discussion whenever someone presents one as you have, which happens quite often. And, no, tables don't have memories.
I'm not an expert. Just a newbie a few months ahead of you on here. YMMV.
Wow, you are certainly more in tune to the mathematics than I am.
As the OP I did post, originally, that I do lose.
I've read many times about these millions of results that no one in a lifetime could ever expect to play but if tables and dice don't have memories then for one trip, one bet...I'm looking for a 7 before whatever the point number happens to be. Odds are with me, yes???
Quote: akaragsI guess we're splitting hairs when I say I don't see it as a system. I've been hooked on this fascinating game for a long time but have always played in moderation. I would never feel as if I outsmarted anyone but I'm never there long enough to be steered or shown the door.
But back to my original ?...why would any trip to any table not be an arbitrary trip to an arbitrary table, to buy in and wait to see one event occur (2 consecutive points with no 7), place one bet and leave???
Next thing you will be looking at 5 suits next to your table . House hates to lose and that's the bottom line . They label you as a skillful player , if you want to continue playing you should pay great deal to camouflage your bets .
Quote: akarags93% of all shooters will NOT hit 3 or more points.
From a more pessimistic point of view, 7% of all shooters hit 3 or more points. When they do they always begin by hitting 2 consecutive points.
Quote: akaragsIt'll wager that if a an odds maker told you privately that he was 93% sure of a preseason pick of the Superbowl winner, you'd take those odds, huh???
That's the point. preseason for the shooter is before they get the dice. Once they make 2 consecutive points they are no longer in the 93%. They are well on their way to being in the 7%. It is classic gambler's fallacy stuff. I am guessing you have heard the argument before.
Quote: akaragsIt'll wager that if a an odds maker told you privately that he was 93% sure of a preseason pick of the Superbowl winner, you'd take those odds, huh???
To continue your analogy... That's a good bet if I get it down preseason. If I waited untill 12 games into the season and watched that team go 6 and 6 I would no longer believe the bookies 93% confidence level.
Quote: JimRockfordThat's the point. preseason for the shooter is before they get the dice. Once they make 2 consecutive points they are no longer in the 93%. They are well on their way to being in the 7%. It is classic gambler's fallacy stuff. I am guessing you have heard the argument before.
In the end it all boils down to the probability of a 7 vs. the point number. Whether I'm at Harrah's, Binion's, Stratosphere, Isle of Capri or anywhere in between...gamblers fallacy or not...it is a method of play that suits the gambler. I do like the idea of camouflage for my next trip. Maybe $5 Field bets every 2-3 shooters until I see what I'm looking for?!?!
Quote: JimRockfordTo continue your analogy... That's a good bet if I get it down preseason. If I waited untill 12 games into the season and watched that team go 6 and 6 I would no longer believe the bookies 93% confidence level.
Really, but isn't that the point. He gives me the pick, I place the wager
On the craps end of it, I know going to the table that the math gurus have determined long before I became interested in the game that 93% of all shooters will not hit 3 or more points.
Everything at this point is even Steven. Now we just have to see it play out. But you'll take that bet just like I'll risk 500-680 on one event potentiality.
Quote: akaragsReally, but isn't that the point. He gives me the pick, I place the wager
On the craps end of it, I know going to the table that the math gurus have determined long before I became interested in the game that 93% of all shooters will not hit 3 or more points.
Everything at this point is even Steven. Now we just have to see it play out. But you'll take that bet just like I'll risk 500-680 on one event potentiality.
My only point is that you are not really wagering against a shooter hitting 3 points. You are wagering against a shooter hitting his third point which is just as likely as hitting his first. Others have already made that point, I was just trying to illustrate it a different way.
But the bet still must be made before the shooter sets the first point to have that 93% win prob.Quote: akaragsOn the craps end of it, I know going to the table that the math gurus
have determined long before I became interested in the game
that 93% of all shooters will not hit 3 or more points.
Everything at this point is even Steven.
Now we just have to see it play out. But you'll take that bet just like I'll risk 500-680 on one event potentiality.
You are not betting at that point in time.
shooter needs 3 in a row to cause you to lose.
once he hits the first point
he only needs 2 points in a row to hit 3 in a row
in other words,
Given that the shooter has just made one point in his hand
what is the chance (probability) of getting still 3 in a row point winners?
(only needs two more, not 3 more)
Looks to be NOT the 93% it started out as
but has dropped to only 83.5% of NOT getting 3 in a row
here is what the table looks like
Probability of getting any point = 201/495 (40.61%)
| points already won | needs | success prob | fail prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 0.066953391 | 0.933046609 |
| 1 | 2 | 0.164885216 | 0.835114784 |
| 2 | 1 | 0.406060606 | 0.593939394 |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
one can easily see that GIVEN that the shooter has already hit 2 points
(only needs one more for 3 in a row winners
causing YOUR DP and odds bet to lose)
is 201/495, exactly the same as it was
before setting his very first point to win his very first point.
Math is so cool huh?
Where you are also totally mistaken:
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with NO 7s is
identical to
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with ONE 7s
or
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with TWO 7s
or
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with MORE THAN TWO 7s
the # of 7s rolled makes no difference from 0 to forever
Summary
Math is so cool
when you are making your DP odds bet after a shooter has
just hit 2 in a row points (no matter the # of 7s) and before setting his 3rd point
the probability of winning the very next point not yet established is 201/495
for the shooter.
You still have a 294/495 chance of winning that 3rd point
before the shooter has established his 3rd point (any point) for 3 in a row
at THIS POINT IN TIME,
NOT the 93% chance you still think it is.
That was only TRUE before the shooter even set his first point way back
But we hope you have more fun and feel better
playing this way. That is really all that matters.
would be fun to watch you bet.
Why not secretly video a few of your one bet sessions?
Many do that all the time
Good Luck
Quote: akaragsIn the end it all boils down to the probability of a 7 vs. the point number. Whether I'm at Harrah's, Binion's, Stratosphere, Isle of Capri or anywhere in between...gamblers fallacy or not...it is a method of play that suits the gambler. I do like the idea of camouflage for my next trip. Maybe $5 Field bets every 2-3 shooters until I see what I'm looking for?!?!
It is a well known play , nothing new here . You'll be surprised to know what people do to disguise . Most common is "mad chartist" - the man draws diagrams and calculates something , he makes all type of bets and suddenly "eurika" it's time to place a huge don't bet .
Quote: Dicenor33Math or no math , but the fact is that some don't bettors become so skillful it becomes impossible for the house to make'm loose . They "smell " cold table and loosing players . It leaves house no choiice , but keep'm out .
After reading this, I think I smell something else.
Quote: Dicenor33It is a well known play , nothing new here . You'll be surprised to know what people do to disguise . Most common is "mad chartist" - the man draws diagrams and calculates something , he makes all type of bets and suddenly "eurika" it's time to place a huge don't bet .
Wow, people do that? "Mad chartist"!!! Classic! I just enjoy watching the game while waiting....
Quote: 7crapsBut the bet still must be made before the shooter sets the first point to have that 93% win prob.
You are not betting at that point in time.
shooter needs 3 in a row to cause you to lose.
once he hits the first point
he only needs 2 points in a row to hit 3 in a row
in other words,
Given that the shooter has just made one point in his hand
what is the chance (probability) of getting still 3 in a row point winners?
(only needs two more, not 3 more)
Looks to be NOT the 93% it started out as
but has dropped to only 83.5% of NOT getting 3 in a row
here is what the table looks like
Probability of getting any point = 201/495 (40.61%)
points already won needs success prob fail prob 0 3 0.066953391 0.933046609 1 2 0.164885216 0.835114784 2 1 0.406060606 0.593939394 3 0 1 0
one can easily see that GIVEN that the shooter has already hit 2 points
(only needs one more for 3 in a row winners
causing YOUR DP and odds bet to lose)
is 201/495, exactly the same as it was
before setting his very first point to win his very first point.
Math is so cool huh?
Where you are also totally mistaken:
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with NO 7s is
identical to
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with ONE 7s
or
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with TWO 7s
or
the probability of any shooter hitting a third point after 2 points with MORE THAN TWO 7s
the # of 7s rolled makes no difference from 0 to forever
Summary
Math is so cool
when you are making your DP odds bet after a shooter has
just hit 2 in a row points (no matter the # of 7s) and before setting his 3rd point
the probability of winning the very next point not yet established is 201/495
for the shooter.
You still have a 294/495 chance of winning that 3rd point
before the shooter has established his 3rd point (any point) for 3 in a row
at THIS POINT IN TIME,
NOT the 93% chance you still think it is.
That was only TRUE before the shooter even set his first point way back
But we hope you have more fun and feel better
playing this way. That is really all that matters.
would be fun to watch you bet.
Why not secretly video a few of your one bet sessions?
Many do that all the time
Good Luck
Whew! That was intense....math IS the coolest thing and you explain it so well!
But why did it work?
Video? That sounds cool...where would I get one of these hidden cameras?
