Worth of a promo chips
September 12th, 2013 at 2:08:33 AM
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hi, guys,
In general people say promo chips are worth about half of its face value. I'd like to know what that means exactly in math.
At first glance, on games with low house edge like blackjack, the hand wins you get +1 unit with ~50% probability, and when the hand loses you lose ZERO. Thus this overall EV ~= 0.5 if using only promo chips on this game optimally seems to be the 'worth' of the promo chips.
i.e.
EV = p * (+1) - q * (0),
where p is the probability of winning, and q for losing.
However, I have some doubt about losing the promo chips being losing nothing.
If the chips have any kind of 'worth', would it be better in some situations to save the chips for future rounds?
Some defensive splits or double downs have only marginally increased conditional ev. If saving the coupon means one more future round with the humongous +0.5 EV, then doesn't one need to take that into account?
e.g. something like
conditional ev = p * (+1) - q * (worth of the promo chip),
This modification will alter the overall EV and in turn the 'worth of the promo chip', and in the end one has to arrive at a consistent number of that 'worth'.
In games with Ante-Raise structure, what exactly do people mean when talking about the worth(value) of the promo chips? The overall EV of the game (with real money involved)? or just the part of the promo chips? (e.g. James Grosjean's paper 'Beyond coupon')
If you place a bet with real money on Ante (as required) and get a very strong hand, then it seems a waste to use the promo chips on the Raise(Play) bet since it's almost a sure win.
However, the simple-minded conditional ev = p * (+1) - q * (0) will dictate to ALWAYS use the promo chip if there's ANY chance to lose.
That doesn't seem right. So what's missing? (in particular, James Grosjean's paper listed some strategy that clearly doesn't work like this)
I've got a lot more questions related to this topic, but I don't even know if I'm totally off track.
Thanks.
In general people say promo chips are worth about half of its face value. I'd like to know what that means exactly in math.
At first glance, on games with low house edge like blackjack, the hand wins you get +1 unit with ~50% probability, and when the hand loses you lose ZERO. Thus this overall EV ~= 0.5 if using only promo chips on this game optimally seems to be the 'worth' of the promo chips.
i.e.
EV = p * (+1) - q * (0),
where p is the probability of winning, and q for losing.
However, I have some doubt about losing the promo chips being losing nothing.
If the chips have any kind of 'worth', would it be better in some situations to save the chips for future rounds?
Some defensive splits or double downs have only marginally increased conditional ev. If saving the coupon means one more future round with the humongous +0.5 EV, then doesn't one need to take that into account?
e.g. something like
conditional ev = p * (+1) - q * (worth of the promo chip),
This modification will alter the overall EV and in turn the 'worth of the promo chip', and in the end one has to arrive at a consistent number of that 'worth'.
In games with Ante-Raise structure, what exactly do people mean when talking about the worth(value) of the promo chips? The overall EV of the game (with real money involved)? or just the part of the promo chips? (e.g. James Grosjean's paper 'Beyond coupon')
If you place a bet with real money on Ante (as required) and get a very strong hand, then it seems a waste to use the promo chips on the Raise(Play) bet since it's almost a sure win.
However, the simple-minded conditional ev = p * (+1) - q * (0) will dictate to ALWAYS use the promo chip if there's ANY chance to lose.
That doesn't seem right. So what's missing? (in particular, James Grosjean's paper listed some strategy that clearly doesn't work like this)
I've got a lot more questions related to this topic, but I don't even know if I'm totally off track.
Thanks.
September 12th, 2013 at 5:35:05 AM
permalink
The persnickety ones will soon chime in with three categories of "free" chips and with whole lot of footnote type thingies limiting their use in certain games.
Some casinos have gotten wise and said the free chips are good only in roulette and only on Red.
Alot of the value is derived from the alternative of using the chips as hedges such as Hubby bets on Red, Wife bets on Black and Croupier pays one of them MOST of the time but at Green
Thats as close to "math" as I can get.
Some casinos have gotten wise and said the free chips are good only in roulette and only on Red.
Alot of the value is derived from the alternative of using the chips as hedges such as Hubby bets on Red, Wife bets on Black and Croupier pays one of them MOST of the time but at Green
Thats as close to "math" as I can get.
